Top Apple analyst expects a significant decline in iPhone shipments this year،
Earlier this month, an analyst working for Barclays said there was nothing special about the iPhone 16 series that would help reverse the decline in demand for the iPhone. As a result, the analyst lowered his rating on Apple to “Underweight” and in a research note, Barclays told clients “…we do not see any features or upgrades that would make the iPhone 16 more convincing”.
Now that the month is almost over, TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo weighs in and shares Barclays' opinion. In a blog postKuo writes: “It is expected that Apple will not release new iPhone models with significant design changes and the more complete/differentiated GenAI ecosystem/applications until 2025 at the earliest. Until then, this will likely hurt Apple's iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth. “.
Apple may not go all-in on AI for iPhone until 2025 iPhone 17 lineup releases
Even though iOS 18 is rumored to add AI features, if Kuo is right (and he is quite often), it won't be until the iPhone 17 line launches in 2025 that we'll see Apple move to Full AI with the iPhone. . And the next few years won't be good for the iPhone according to Kuo. Kuo is already seeing a 15% decline in “shipments of key upstream semiconductor components,” indicating a decline to 200 million iPhone 15 shipments. Kuo writes: “Apple could see the steepest decline among major brands global mobile phone sales in 2024.
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Kuo says he sees shipments from iPhone15 line down 10 to 15% in the first half of this year. It also predicts the same decline for the iPhone16 series (compared to the iPhone15 online) during the second half of this year. Part of the problem will be competition. Kuo writes that the problems include “the emergence of a new paradigm in high-end mobile phone design and the continued decline in shipments to the Chinese market.”
The new paradigm of high-end mobile phone design includes the use of AI (GenAI) and foldable phones. Apple does not yet have a foldable device although there are still rumors that the company is working on such a device. According to Kuo, the decline in iPhone sales in China is due to the return of Huawei and “the growing preference for foldable phones among high-end users as their first choice for phone replacement” in the world's largest smartphone market.
Kuo paints a gloomy picture of iPhone demand for the next few years
To show how AI is becoming increasingly important to the smartphone industry, Kuo notes that the addition of GenAI features to the Galaxy S24 lineup led Samsung to revise its shipment forecast upwards by 5%. for the manufacturer's flagship series for 2024. The analyst compares this to Apple's downward revision of iPhone15 serial shipments for the first half of this year. Kuo paints a bleak picture of iPhone demand through at least 2025.
This year we should see bigger screens for the iPhone16 Pro (6.3 inches) and the iPhone 16 Pro Max (6.9 inches). THE iPhone16 Pro will add the Tetraprism periscope camera to offer 5x optical zoom with the iPhone 16 Pro Max. THE iPhone16 And iPhone16 Plus could be powered by the 3nm A18 Bionic chipset, and the iPhone16 Pro models must be equipped with the A18 Pro application processor.
Additionally, the iPhone16 Non-Pro units are expected to join the Pro models and pack 8GB of RAM. THE iPhone16 And iPhone16 Additionally, according to rumors, it would be possible to upgrade from Wi-Fi 6 to Wi-Fi 6E while the iPhone16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Maxare upgraded to the new Wi-Fi 7 from Wi-Fi 6E. And all four 2024 iPhone models will have the new Capture button that would be used by iPhone16 series users to help them start recording videos with the phone. One theory is that this button is added to help users take spatial videos to view in 3D while wearing the Vision Pro headset.
