Minnesota Timberwolves’ new Mike Conley deal worth the price

The most significant long-term development from NBA All-Star Weekend occurred Monday after everyone had left Indianapolis, when ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the Minnesota Timberwolves had agreed to an extension $21 million, two-year contract with point guard Mike Conley.

The Timberwolves' exciting rise to the top of the Western Conference came with a long-term concern: Could Minnesota afford to keep this core together?

With the extensions of Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Karl-Anthony Towns starting next season and increasing their salaries, the Timberwolves' payroll is likely to increase significantly after ranking 11th in the NBA this season.

With Minnesota projecting near the NBA's second luxury fiscal apron with Conley, managing the tax and restrictions placed on big-spending teams in the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) remains a concern. Still, getting a veteran leader under contract for a lower salary than other teams could have offered using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception is a huge win for Minnesota.

Conley's potential to become an unrestricted free agent was one of the most important variables for the Timberwolves. Now, Minnesota can reasonably hope to keep the group that came together so well this season for another run in 2024-25.

Timberwolves payroll projection

With Edwards and Towns signing extensions that pay these two All-Stars a percentage of the 2024-25 salary cap, we don't yet know Minnesota's exact salary numbers. Based on the current projection of a $141 million cap hit, Towns' contract will start at $49.35 million (35 percent of the cap) and Edwards' contract will start at $35.25 million (25 percent). ).

Including Conley's extension, that would give the Timberwolves $184.2 million in guaranteed salary for 2024-25 with just nine players under contract, a figure that's already closing in on the projected second cap of $190 million.

There's still one crucial wild card for Minnesota: whether Edwards will make All-NBA, in which case he would be eligible for an increase in his starting salary to 30 percent of the cap ($42.3 million). In this scenario, the Timberwolves would exceed the second apron before even filling their squad.

To some extent, the new restrictions might not affect Minnesota as much as other teams. With all five starters under contract, the Timberwolves won't necessarily look to consolidate salaries via trade and aren't a frequent destination for buyout candidates.

In an older sector of a mid-sized market, the biggest problem for Minnesota will likely be the tax itself. Let's say Edwards misses All-NBA and the Timberwolves keep their first-round pick before filling the roster with minimum-salary players in place of their current free agents. In that case, Minnesota would face a tax bill estimated at around $60 million. Any additional salary would increase this amount by 3.25 times the salary.

The Timberwolves have only paid the tax once since 2006-07. In 2019-20, when Minnesota couldn't reach a buyout after adding payroll by trading for D'Angelo Russell on deadline, the team ended up paying about $500,000 in taxes. The Timberwolves last paid more than $1 million in 2003-04 — the only time in franchise history they won a playoff series.

The counterpoint to Minnesota's tax story is that no Timberwolves team since this season has deserved pay the tax so far. Minnesota will also likely have new ownership next season, with Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez expected to finalize their purchase of a majority share from longtime owner Glen Taylor. Lore and Rodriguez helped greenlight the July 2022 trade for center Rudy Gobert, knowing it would likely mean paying the tax later.

While it would increase the size of the extensions for Edwards and Towns, a higher projected salary cap would also give Minnesota a little more wiggle room by lowering the Timberwolves' tax payment.

Future decisions for the Timberwolves

Putting Conley under contract for 2024-25 was crucial because Minnesota's other point guards — including newly acquired Monte Morris and third-stringer Jordan McLaughlin — are set to become unrestricted free agents next summer.

Although trading for Gobert was the biggest (and riskiest) move that allowed the Timberwolves to become contenders, they wouldn't be in this position without Conley. His unselfish, low-risk style of play (his 6.1 assist ratio ranks second among NBA regulars this season) is a perfect match for Minnesota's young cornerstones, Edwards and Towns.

Had Conley looked elsewhere as an unrestricted free agent this summer, the Timberwolves would have had limited ability to replace him off the roster. Teams that make it past the second apron cannot use the taxpayer mid-tier exception, meaning Minnesota could only offer the minimum to free agents.

The addition of Morris at the trade deadline gives the Timberwolves an alternative route. At 28, Morris is eight years younger than Conley and he has experience as a full-time starter in 2021-22 for the Denver Nuggets and 2022-23 with the Washington Wizards. Additionally, Minnesota has Bird's full rights to re-sign Morris. Still, it remains to be seen how well he will adapt, and the Timberwolves could potentially bring him back as a backup despite Conley's extension.

Minnesota's other key unrestricted free agent is forward Kyle Anderson, who ranks eighth on the team in minutes per game this season. Anderson could be considered expendable given the luxury tax cost of his re-signing, particularly if the Timberwolves believe 2023 second-round pick Leonard Miller is ready for a rotation role after playing primarily in the G League as a rookie. (Miller averaged 22.5 PPG, 10.2 RPG and 3.2 APG during the G League regular season.)

The final player to watch is backup center Naz Reid. If Minnesota has to shed salary, Reid's contract would be an option because he plays behind Gobert and Towns. Given that Reid could conceivably start for another team at center after averaging 19.6 points and 7.3 rebounds per 36 minutes this season while shooting 42 percent from 3, dealing him would also help the Timberwolves rebuild their stock of draft picks. Still, Minnesota's preference would surely be to retain Reid, who is under contract for a reasonable $14 million in 2024-25 before a player option on the final season of his contract.

If the Timberwolves had disappointed again this season after finishing 42-40 in their first year with Gobert — despite Towns being limited to 29 games — we'd surely be talking about bigger moves, including the possibility of trading Towns before his extension comes into force. .

Instead, with Minnesota in position to contend for a championship, the goal is to give this group more time together. Conley's extension makes that hope more likely to come to fruition.