Deshaun Watson shoulder injury – What it means for the Browns

BEREA, Ohio — The Cleveland Browns are once again without their franchise quarterback. And the race for the AFC North division saw another shock.

On Wednesday, the Browns announced that Deshaun Watson will undergo season-ending surgery to repair a broken pitching shoulder. An MRI performed Monday revealed Watson had a displaced glenoid fracture in his right shoulder. Team doctors determined that Watson needed immediate surgery to prevent further structural damage.

“I’m still in disbelief. I’m still trying to process all the information,” Watson said Wednesday. “I felt like we were turning a corner to really make a run and I still believe we always will with the guys in this locker room. I just wanted to be a part of it physically. … It’s hard to trying to wrap it all up in my head right now.”

Watson’s season is over. But Cleveland’s season is not.

The Browns face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS) in another key AFC North game with playoff implications.

Breaking down what Watson’s injury means for the Browns – this year and beyond – and how it could impact the entire AFC playoff run in the second half of the season:

Where do the Browns go from here at QB?

The Browns return rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the starter.

The fifth-round pick out of UCLA started Week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens with Watson dealing with a rotator cuff strain. Thompson-Robinson struggled during his early days. He completed 19 of 36 passes for 121 yards, threw three interceptions and took four sacks, as the Ravens went 28-3.

Thompson-Robinson, however, didn’t know for sure he would start this game until a few hours before kickoff. Watson had indicated all week that he would play until a pregame warmup determined he would not.

“I want to give him a week where he knows he’s a starter and he gets a full week of preparation,” Browns coach Kevin Stefanski said.

Before the Ravens debacle, Thompson-Robinson stood out in training camp and in Cleveland’s preseason games. So much so that the Browns felt comfortable enough to trade Joshua Dobbs to Arizona (a decision they must regret now, given how Dobbs played for the Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings) and initially Thompson-Robinson declared their No. 2 QB behind Watson.

After the loss to the Ravens, the Browns started PJ Walker, who went 2-1 as the primary quarterback while Watson sat out with the initial shoulder injury. Walker led the Browns to victories over the San Francisco 49ers and Indianapolis Colts. But Walker also threw a late interception that helped the Seattle Seahawks come back to defeat Cleveland.

Walker ranks 43rd with a QBR of 24.4; Thompson-Robinson is 42nd with a QBR of 26.4. But the Browns hope Thompson-Robinson’s upside will pay off as he gains more experience.

“He’s very athletic, he can make plays,” Stefanski said. “He has a very good understanding of what we are doing in our offense. He is a young player who will continue to improve.”

What does this mean for the Browns season?

This definitely lowers Cleveland’s ceiling.

Watson was coming off arguably his best performance in a Browns uniform. Despite dealing with a shoulder injury and a high left ankle sprain, he completed all 14 passes in the second half against the Ravens. He also led the Browns on a game-winning field goal to defeat Baltimore 33-31.

“I kept trying to tell you that once he hits his stride, he’ll go back to his old ways,” Browns All-Pro defensive end Myles Garrett said of Watson shortly after the Ravens’ victory. “We only get a glimpse of what he can be and who he is.”

The Browns were optimistic that Watson was starting to return to the form he had with the Houston Texans in 2020, when he led the NFL with 4,823 passing yards. The first down plays he made in the fourth quarter in Baltimore, both running and passing, were particularly galvanizing. Now, the Browns will instead have to move forward with a rookie passer.

Watson’s injury doesn’t mean Cleveland’s playoff hopes are toast. Led by Garrett, Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Browns offense also has plenty of experience adapting to injuries, having already lost right tackle Jack Conklin (knee) and All-Pro running back Nick Chubb (knee) for the year. As the 49ers learned, the Browns can still win games without Watson.

But with the way Watson was starting to play, the Browns were starting to look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. With a rookie quarterback, it’s hard to see how that will remain the case.

After a disappointing second straight season, what is Watson’s future with the Browns?

The Browns have no choice but to move forward with Watson as their starting quarterback.

Watson is under contract for three more seasons with $138 million remaining on the five-year, fully guaranteed $230 million deal he signed after being traded to the Browns in March 2022.

Watson’s dead cap hit in 2024 is $200.9 million. This drops to $139.9 million in 2025 and $72.9 million in 2026.

In other words, Watson isn’t going anywhere.

But now he will return from surgery to his throwing shoulder. Additionally, he will return after missing 39 games over the past three seasons. Watson missed the 2021 season after demanding a trade from the Texans. And last year in Cleveland, he served an 11-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy following accusations from more than two dozen women of sexual assault and sexual misconduct during massage sessions.

Watson said Wednesday he’s “very confident” in his ability to bounce back and become the quarterback he believes he can still be.

Watson now has an even longer road to get there. Browns owners Jimmy and Dee Haslam have already paid him $92 million, with little to show for it.

Should the Browns consider signing or drafting a QB this offseason?

The Browns will almost assuredly enter next season with Watson and Thompson-Robinson in their quarterback room.

If Thompson-Robinson plays well, the Browns will likely feel confident with him as their backup next year. If he struggles, Cleveland will need to consider other quarterback options, whether in free agency or the draft.

It is too early to say what this plan might look like. But general manager Andrew Berry said Wednesday the Browns will bring in a third quarterback in the short term.

How will this affect the AFC North and the AFC playoffs?

Let’s start with the Browns. It’s a blow to their playoff hopes, but it doesn’t take them out of contention. In fact, the FPI estimates their chances of entry at 63% (compared to 80%). Cleveland is 6-3 and in the No. 6 seed as things stand, despite a team QBR of 37 so far this year (Watson had a QBR of 45). Thompson-Robinson only threw 37 passes in the regular season and he had a 26.4 QBR in his only start. If he improves and gets closer to Watson’s level, Cleveland can still be a playoff team, especially with their lead in the standings and with their elite defense.

Where it really hurts Cleveland’s projections is performance In the playoffs. FPI gave the Browns a 15% chance of reaching the AFC Championship Game before Watson’s injury, and that number is down to 6% now. The consequences for their chances of reaching and winning the Super Bowl are even more severe.

The biggest winners here are probably the Steelers, Bengals and Texans – all teams whose playoff chances are between 30% and 60%. And who face the Browns before the end of the season. Not only do they face a lesser threat from Cleveland for a wild card and/or division winner spot, but they also now have an easier game on their schedule. In terms of playoff percentages, it’s only a few points for each, but a little boost still helps. The Ravens are winners, too: Their playoff spot is all but assured, but the division isn’t, and the Browns were the biggest threat in the AFC North. This is no longer the case: the Steelers now have the second chances of winning the division (19%) after Baltimore (56%, compared to 50%). — Seth Walder