UFC 295: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall by the numbers،
After injuries caused major short-term upsets on last month’s UFC 294 fight card, the theme continued with this weekend’s pay-per-view. And once again, the main event and the future of the division hang in the balance.
Following the announcement that heavyweight champion Jon Jones withdrew from the UFC 295 main event due to a torn pectoral tendon, UFC CEO Dana White quickly announced that contenders Heavyweights Tom Aspinall (13-3) and Sergei Pavlovich (18-1) would fight. for the interim title in the co-main event Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).
While Jones vs. former heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic was certainly going to be compelling, the new matchup actually has the potential to be an even more entertaining fight — and bring more intrigue to the next one. two fights for the heavyweight title.
Here’s a look at the numbers behind this weekend’s co-main event, a clash between two of the most dominant fighters in the history of the UFC heavyweight division.
1
Pavlovich and Aspinall have a total of 14 fights inside the Octagon. From these fights, only one passed the first round. Each of Pavlovich’s seven UFC fights ended in a first-round knockout, even his only loss to Alistair Overeem in his promotional debut in November 2018. Aspinall’s only fight that reached the second round was against Andrei Arlovski in February 2021. Aspinall went on to beat Arlovski via second-round submission.
364
Aspinall’s only loss in the UFC came on July 23, 2022, when he suffered a gruesome leg injury just 15 seconds into his main event against Curtis Blaydes. After injuring his knee while throwing his first punch of the fight, Aspinall was out of action for 364 days.
The British fighter made his return to the Octagon on July 22, facing Marcin Tybura in the main event of UFC London. Aspinall defeated Tybura by first-round TKO, earning him a shot at the interim title.
6.31
Without a doubt, Pavlovich will be the most dangerous striker Aspinall has faced. The Russian might just be the most dangerous striker in UFC history. Averaging just 21.7 total strikes per fight, Pavlovich averages 6.31 reversals per 15 minutes. That’s the highest rate in the promotion’s history and more than two more knockdowns than the next fighter. Drew McFedries has the second best knockdown rate at 4.27. Aspinall has the fifth best rate at 2.78.
8.72
Speaking of Pavlovich’s striking, the 31-year-old is the most effective striker the UFC heavyweight division has ever seen. Pavlovich enters this weekend’s fight with an average 8.72 strikes per minute, which represents the highest strikeout rate per minute in the division’s history. Aspinall has the second highest rate, at 7.65 per minute.
2:19
Aspinall also etched his name in the UFC record books. The 30 year old player has the shortest average fight time, averaging just 2 minutes and 19 seconds of action when he enters the Octagon. Pavlovich has the third shortest average time at 2:23. Don’t blink when these two step into the cage on Saturday.
4.75
In addition to having the shortest average fight time, Aspinall also has the second highest punch differential in the promotion’s history. To date, the Briton is outscoring opponents by an average of 4.75 strikes. Former featherweight champion Cris Cyborg is the only fighter with a higher differential at 4.79. Pavlovich ranks third with a differential of 4.39.
Aspinall’s best performance was against Serghei Spivac in September 2021, where he landed 16 strikes and prevented Spivac from landing a single strike en route to a first-round TKO victory.
6
Although these two fighters appear to compete very well, Pavlovich has a significant advantage. He will have a six-inch reach advantage against Aspinall, in a fight that will probably take place on the feet. Pavlovich’s ability to stay out of Aspinall’s reach could be a factor influencing the outcome of this fight.
100
In a division full of fighters who specialize in a single discipline, Aspinall is truly a complete fighter. In addition to his high-level strikes highlighted above, he is also a talented wrestler and submission artist.
Through seven UFC fights, Aspinall has a perfect strikeout rate, completing 100% of his takedown attempts. While he hasn’t had to use this skill often – Aspinall has only attempted four takedowns – it’s nice to have this ability in his back pocket heading into the biggest fight of his career. Aspinall is also tied for the least amount of time spent last in promotions history. He is tied with Justin Tafa, having spent only :01 seconds of fight time in last place.
