Questions facing CFP committee before second rankings reveal

The second seeding might be very easy for the College Football Playoff selection committee after its top eight teams all won in Week 10. It’s not always that simple, however, when the committee “starts every week with a blank sheet of paper” and “what happened last year doesn’t matter.”

That’s why the back-to-back defending national champions weren’t the committee’s No. 1 team in its initial rankings. Was No. 2 Georgia’s win over No. 12 Mizzou enough to change that in the second of the committee’s six rankings, revealed at 7 p.m. ET Tuesday night on ESPN?

Maybe, although Ohio State is still ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s record strength metric, meaning the average top 25 team would have the hardest time achieving the same undefeated record against the Buckeyes’ opponents at this point.

While there hasn’t been much drama on the scoreboard, several pressing issues still face the committee this week that could at least change his second-place finish.

1. Did Georgia do enough to topple the Buckeyes?

One of the most significant results in Week 10 was Georgia’s victory over Missouri, which gave the Bulldogs their first win against a CFP-ranked opponent. While Georgia added to its postseason tally, Ohio State did not, beating an unranked but improved Rutgers team on the road.

However, the committee does not rank teams based on a weekly snapshot. He’ll continue to compare Ohio State and Georgia based on their resumes to date, and assuming Penn State and Notre Dame are still top-25 wins, the Buckeyes will still edge out Georgia thanks to their strength of calendar.

It didn’t help Ohio State that Notre Dame fell to three losses after losing at Clemson, which is a four-loss team. Florida’s home loss to Arkansas didn’t help Georgia either, and the Gators are now a four-loss team. One of the reasons Georgia was No. 2 and ahead of Michigan last week was because the committee valued its wins over Kentucky and Florida more than any opponents the Wolverines had beaten.

Another consideration is the value of the win against Mizzou, and that will be determined in part by how the Tigers fall tonight. If Georgia earns a promotion to first place on Tuesday, it would most likely be justified by the committee viewing the Bulldogs as a better team while citing Ohio State’s first-half struggles at Rutgers. They should, however, explain how this was different from Georgia’s struggles against Mizzou in the first half.

2. Will Washington make the top four?

Washington’s Oct. 14 win over Oregon was arguably the best in the country, but it wasn’t enough to impress the committee last week. The only difference this week is that Washington bolstered its cause Saturday with a double-digit road win at No. 20 USC. The question is how much the committee values ​​the win now that the Trojans are a three-loss team.

Washington’s standout performances in wins over Arizona State (2-7) and Stanford (3-6) are why the committee placed the Huskies fifth in its first rankings. While it was another offensive clinic for Washington against USC, the defense allowed at least 30 points for the second straight week. None of the undefeated teams above Washington have lost, so if the Huskies advance, it would be because of the road win against a ranked CFP team.

3. Is Oregon still the better team with a loss?

That’s a question only because Alabama now has three top-25 wins: against Ole Miss, Tennessee and now LSU. Oregon has one declaration victory – Oct. 28 at Utah.

The Ducks have been one of the most complete teams in the country, and the committee has and will continue to honor Washington’s head-to-head victory over Oregon as long as the Huskies remain undefeated. Will the committee continue to do the same for Texas, which beat Alabama by double digits in Tuscaloosa in Week 2?

It would be surprising if that wasn’t the case — which would leave the 5-8 ranked teams in the same order — but Alabama has made significant progress against ranked competition in back-to-back weeks. He also has a better resume than Texas, except of course losing to the Longhorns. The Tide are fourth in record strength, while Texas follows at No. 5. This might at least spark some debate in the room about whether the Tide should be higher.

4. Does Ole Miss have a chance in the playoffs?

The Rebels are a long way from winning the SEC, but if they lead the standings and finish with a loss, they’ll at least get some consideration. Winning the division will be extremely difficult even if the Rebels lead the standings because they still need Alabama to lose twice. This is unlikely to happen, given that Alabama plays two unranked SEC opponents (Kentucky and Auburn), and that ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Tide at least an 80% chance of winning each match.

If Ole Miss beats Georgia on Saturday, it will earn the nation’s best win, along with two other victories against ranked opponents in LSU and Tulane. A victory on Saturday would be even more impressive considering it’s in Athens. According to ESPN Analytics, Ole Miss has a 31% chance of beating Georgia and a 26% chance of finishing 11-1.

If this scenario occurs, Ole Miss will have a 23% chance of reaching the postseason, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. However, much of that depends on what happens in the other Power 5 conference championship games — and how the SEC title game plays out. If Georgia won the SEC and Ole Miss beat the SEC champs…that’s a serious conversation for the committee.

Saturday’s opportunity against Georgia gives Ole Miss the best chance of any team around the top 10. Louisville has an outside chance if it leads the standings and wins the SEC, but an 11-1 Ole Miss without a title SEC would have a better summary than a 12-1 Louisville that won the ACC.

5. Is LSU the team with the committee’s three best losses?

LSU is a critical common opponent for both Florida State and Alabama, who both beat the Tigers and need the win to continue impressing the committee. This also impacts Ole Miss (see: #4). LSU still ranks 16th in record strength, the highest of any three-loss team.

If LSU is the committee’s three-loss team as expected, where does Notre Dame (7-3) land? Ohio State should earn a top-10 win over Penn State, but how will the committee evaluate its close road win over the Irish? The Irish are No. 22 in record statistics, the second-best ranking among all three-loss teams behind LSU.