The World Cup has progressed as expected – except for England’s total disintegration،
The first objective of a World Cup is to qualify for the semi-finals. The best outcome then is to meet your favorite opponent in a knockout match.
As we reach the climax of the round robin stage, the most likely semi-finals appear to be India v New Zealand and South Africa v Australia. For two of the tournament favorites, India and Australia, this would be their preferred semi-final, if the actual finishing order of the top four results in these contests.
While there have been a number of upsets so far – England’s total collapse being monumental – there have been no real surprises in terms of the best way to win matches at 50.
Taking wickets early and then maintaining the momentum through the middle overs is a surefire way to restrict an opponent. If the best hitters are back in the pavilion during the death overs of the first innings, you’re probably chasing a reasonable goal. It is important to have good wicket-spinners.
Choosing the right thing to do to win the draw is essential. The captain who wins the toss faces a difficult decision. One thing you don’t want is to dispatch the opposition and then find yourself chasing a huge total. Having a decent score on the board is a positive outcome, especially when the match decides who advances and who goes home.
For the top-four finishing order I laid out above to happen, there are still a few crucial games remaining. India, despite remaining undefeated in the round robin, must stay ahead of South Africa on points. Victory against South Africa in their group match is still a must, even though India now lead 7-0, having humiliated Sri Lanka.
Australia are now all but assured of a third place finish (which could help them avoid India in the semi-finals) as long as they keep winning. With the unexpected injury to Glenn Maxwell and the untimely absence of Mitchell Marsh, it could have been a difficult exercise, except that their great rivals, England, played like headless chickens.
New Zealand, despite losing to Pakistan on Saturday and being level on points with them, are ahead in terms of net run rate.
Pakistan, despite overcoming the first of their last two hurdles before the semi-finals, are yet to beat their last opponent, England, by a handy margin and achieve further results.
Despite being easy to defend and having a clinical victory against the Netherlands, Afghanistan are struggling to sneak into the last four. Although mathematically they could finish ahead of New Zealand on points, they face two huge obstacles.
First of all, they come to a brutal end, with difficult matches against Australia and South Africa. That’s a tough enough task, but they’re also far behind New Zealand and Pakistan in terms of net run rate, meaning Afghanistan must both bat and bowl incredibly well in both of these last matches if he wants to have a chance. Nevertheless, they have won many fans thanks to their aggressive approach and continuous improvement of their skills. It also doesn’t hurt that their spinners keep the line and length under fire and look for wickets at every opportunity.
New Zealand finds itself in a precarious situation. They had a reasonably mild start to the schedule, considering England’s total disintegration. They have also suffered serious injuries along the way, but it is their fragility on the pitch – normally a strength – that has been a concern of late.
South Africa stumbled badly against the Netherlands. Australia are hoping to commit a playoff crime by producing another inexplicable mix-up to crash out of the World Cup with a poor semi-final performance.
Apart from England’s collapse and South Africa’s surprisingly good run of form, the tournament progressed as superpowers India and Australia wanted. This is an ongoing headache for the ICC if it does not resolve the current financial imbalance in world cricket.
