With a thrilling 3-1 victory over the Atlanta Braves on Thursday night, the Philadelphia Phillies became the fourth team to clinch a spot in the league championship series.
On Wednesday night, the Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks punched their tickets to the next round, a day after the Texas Rangers became the No. 1 team. The Diamondbacks beat the Los Angeles Dodgers with 100 wins, the Rangers swept the Tampa Bay Rays with 99 wins. and the Baltimore Orioles with 101 wins – and now the Braves with 104 wins are also out.
How did the Phillies manage to eliminate the Braves for a second straight year? Will Philadelphia get past the D-backs to make back-to-back World Series trips? And what should Atlanta think of a record-breaking regular season followed by another early playoff exit? We’ve covered it all with updates, takeaways and ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield explaining what this means for both teams.
Key links: What you need to know | Complete playoff schedule
Takeaways
Philadelphia Phillies 3, Atlanta Braves 1: Two straight Braves-Phillies matchups in the NLDS — and two straight trips to the NLCS for the Phillies, as they knocked off the Braves again with a Game 4 victory Thursday night. There’s just an inertia that works in the Phillies’ favor when they play at home. In Games 3 and 4, they stopped early before quickly coming back to hold off the powerful Braves. Atlanta will say all the right things but look at intimidated – and it showed both at the plate and on the mound. And just when you think you’re safe because you managed to silence Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, here comes Nick Castellanos. He had a three-hit day, including two home runs, while Trea Turner had four hits. The Phillies are simply rolling at home – and they now have home-field advantage in the next round. -Jesse Rogers
Aside from Playoff Bryce, which other Phillies player has impressed you the most in this series?
Olney: Ranger Suarez started two of the four games in this series and worked so well that it seemed Rob Thomson’s confidence in the southpaw had increased. In Game 4, Thomson seemed to keep Suarez in the game a little longer due to the confidence he had gained in Game 1, and in response, Suarez continued to swing his breaking ball with the confidence that seems resonate within him. Thomson will surely be happy to hand the ball to Suarez in Game 3 or 4 of the NL Championship Series.
Schoenfield: Heading into the playoffs, I felt like Aaron Nola was one of the most important players in the entire playoffs. He was homer-prone during an eventful regular season, but so far he’s had two strong starts, with wins against the Marlins and Braves. Heck, to Buster’s point, throw in Suarez and suddenly the Phillies have a solid 2-3 in the rotation behind ace Zack Wheeler.
Rogers: Nick Castellanos. He’s been called a professional hitter and he showed why, taking Spencer Strider — the majors’ strikeout leader — deep twice in Game 4 after hitting two home runs in Game 3. Neither player never did this. Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner grab the headlines, but Castellanos stole them in this series. The guy can hit hard.
What makes Philly perform so well against Atlanta in the playoffs?
Olney: I don’t think it’s a good match; I think it’s more a question of timing. In 2022 and again in ’23, the Braves’ rotation was deeply affected by injuries heading into the playoffs. This year, Max Fried was coming off a blister problem and clearly wasn’t sharp when he started in game two. Charlie Morton was not available at all. And in all of these matchups between division rivals – the Los Angeles Dodgers versus the Arizona Diamondbacks is another example – there is no fear or unknown. These teams have played each other so many times that there is no mystique.
Schoenfield: Well, the Phillies led the majors in home runs over the last two months, so for all the dominance of Atlanta’s offense all season long, Philly’s lineup, with the way it had hit , was probably just as good. Factor in the reduced nature of the Braves’ rotation, without Morton and Fried struggling with his blister problem, and the Phillies were poised to outplay the Braves. And that’s exactly what happened.
Rogers: Their respective crowds? OK, that might be a little dramatic, but there’s a reason the Braves took so long to name a starter for Game 3. Their choices were inexperience versus inexperience – and inexperience simply doesn’t play a role at Citizens Bank Park. Bryce Elder wilted after taking a 1-0 lead – and a night later, even their ace, Strider, did the same. It’s not the match. It’s the atmosphere – and a better starting team.
104 wins, but another early playoff elimination – how would you characterize the Braves’ season?
Olney: Deeply frustrating. After getting knocked out by the Phillies last year, they pushed the regular season rock up the mountain, then got crushed in exactly the same way as last year. Now the same group of players will face the same challenge next year, and this prospect will motivate or hook them during Season 24.
Schoenfield: This is playoff baseball. The Braves won the World Series in 2021 when they only won 88 games and the World Series games started with – I’m not making this up – Tucker Davidson and Dylan Lee. The 2022 and 2023 Braves were much better teams, but just didn’t get hot at the right time. Ask Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz: There’s no super secret formula for how to win in October.
Rogers: Disappointing, but they can cite those throwing injuries as the main reason. Still, Atlanta needs to look at the lineup in the room when adversity hits. Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson are no longer there to lead the group. Brian Snitker said the whole room is in charge, which usually means no one is. Fighting the Phillies on the road is a real thing, and they need real leadership to make it happen.
What do you expect from the Phillies in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks?
Olney: The Diamondbacks knocked off two division winners with a 5-0 record to start the playoffs, so you’d think I’d stop underestimating them. But the Phillies and Braves were the most complete teams on the NL side, and it still seems like the D-Backs — with so many young players — are a middleweight to a heavyweight on the Phillies’ roster. Philadelphia is in a vision quest right now, and it’s hard to imagine anyone other than the Astros having a chance to beat them.
Schoenfield: They will of course be heavy favorites, but don’t sleep on the Diamondbacks. The problem for Arizona: Do they have enough starting pitchers beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly? Brandon Pfaadt got off to a good start against the Dodgers, but he’s hitting a lot of home runs – which, as we just saw, is what the Phillies are very good at hitting. Arizona didn’t even need to use a fourth starter and with fewer days off, the bullpen will be tested more than it has been thus far. It wouldn’t shock me to see a sweep, but I’ll say the Phillies in five as they dominate the D-backs.
Rogers: I think the Phillies keep rolling – but they better not underestimate the D-Backs. One thing is certain, Arizona will not come to Philadelphia scared. The D-Backs are pitching as well as anyone in the postseason. That alone should hold them back.
