Why the Chiefs, Dolphins, Jaguars and Ravens can win the AFC،
The Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins face off Sunday in perhaps the most anticipated international game in NFL history (9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network).
And while the balance of power within the AFC won’t change dramatically as a result of what happens in Frankfurt, Germany, the winner is guaranteed at least a share of the top seed at mid-season .
The Chiefs and Dolphins are tied with the Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars atop the AFC with a 6-2 record.
This is the first time in 12 years that four teams are tied for the best record in the AFC through Week 8 or later, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
All four teams are known for their playmaking quarterbacks, including Dolphins MVP favorite Tua Tagovailoa, and opportunistic defenses. Jacksonville is the hottest team in the AFC, winning its last five games, while Baltimore has the brighter path going forward, playing six of its last nine games at M&T Bank Stadium.
According to ESPN Analytics, the Chiefs (29.3%) and Dolphins (28.9%) are the favorites to win first place in the AFC and a first-round bye. Caesars Sportsbook also lists the Chiefs as favorites to win the AFC, followed by the Dolphins, Ravens and Jaguars. The Buffalo Bills – at 5-3 – are right behind the Jags.
“No one is crowned after eight games. There’s a lot of football to be played,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. “The season is long for a reason, and it eliminates the best. If we want to be the best or be considered the best, we’re going to have to do it for the long term.”
Here’s a look at each team’s hopes from Chiefs reporter Adam Teicher, Dolphins reporter Marcel Louis-Jacques, Ravens reporter Jamison Hensley and Jaguars reporter Michael DiRocco:
Chefs
Why the Chiefs have a legitimate chance to become a top seed: It’s contrary to how things have gone since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback in 2018, but the reason for the Chiefs’ optimism is their defense. They have the second highest scoring defense in the NFL at 16.1 points per game, and if that continues the team will stay in almost every game. And there is reason to believe that this will continue. The pass rush has increased over the past two games, giving the Chiefs 28 sacks for the season, tied for second with the Bills, three behind the league-leading Ravens. Even in Sunday’s otherwise hideous loss to the Denver Broncos, the defense gave the Chiefs some hope in the fourth quarter.
Why they might be vulnerable: The offense hasn’t been as good as in previous years, and it has been horrible at times. The wide receiver production outside of rookie Rashee Rice has been disappointing. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney were expected to be major contributors, but they were mostly out for half a season, combining for 45 catches, 504 yards and three touchdowns. Moore dropped a perfectly placed touchdown pass in the loss to the Broncos that could have sparked a comeback. Mahomes hasn’t been up to the task of elevating the passing game. He is heading into the worst statistical season of his career. He has his lowest passer rating (95.8) and is on pace to throw 17 interceptions, which would easily surpass the most of his career (13 in 2021). He’s on track to achieve a TD-to-interception ratio below 2:1, which would also be a career-worst. — Teicher
Caesar sports betting: The Chiefs are the +240 favorite to win the AFC and the +500 favorite to win the Super Bowl.
dolphins
Why the Dolphins have a legitimate chance to become a top seed: Simply put, offensive firepower. The Dolphins haven’t had 100 rushing yards in three straight games, and they lead the NFL with 151.8 rushing yards per game. While their ground game has come back down to earth without De’Von Achane, the Dolphins continue to lead the league in passing (301.5) and scoring (33.9 points per game). There are four players in this offense – Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Waddle and Achane – who can score anywhere on the court. Miami’s defense also received a boost with the return of Jalen Ramsey, which should strengthen a unit that has been middle of the pack for eight games. Ramsey had an interception and forced a fumble in his season debut Sunday.
Why might they be vulnerable: Miami’s offensive line, while significantly improved over the past two seasons, suffered injuries to four starters. Terron Armstead, Connor Williams and Rob Hunt should return sooner rather than later, but this unit has often been strained by injuries in the past. A three-game stretch against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills to end the season could also prove difficult at a time of year when playoff seeding is usually determined — although two of those games are at home, where the Dolphins haven’t lost since December. December 25, 2022. Miami has been criticized this season for losing the only two games it has played against teams with a winning record, and while that doesn’t matter much in terms of qualifying for the playoffs playoffs, these are the type of matchups the team must win to clinch the top seed in the AFC. –Louis-Jacques
Caesar sports betting: The Dolphins are +450 to win the AFC and +900 to win the Super Bowl.
Jaguar
Why the Jaguars have a legitimate chance to become a top seed: We didn’t expect defense to be the main reason, but it is. The Jaguars lead the league in pass takedowns (18) and interceptions (11), are second in completions (33) and fourth in rushing defense (79.3 yards per game). LB Josh Allen (9 sacks) and CB Darious Williams (8 assists in the NFL) are having the best seasons of their careers. Second-year LB Devin Lloyd has taken a big step forward and LB Foyesade Oluokun is second in the league in tackles (92). The offense had its moments but didn’t always perform at a high level, in part due to injuries along the line and to WR Zay Jones (knee). However, quarterback Trevor Lawrence has recorded a career-best five straight games with a passer rating above 90, and RB Travis Etienne Jr. is third in the NFL in rushing (583 yards) and fourth in rushing yards. melee (839). There’s a feeling the offense will eventually come together like it did at the end of last season, and the Jaguars could then be difficult to deal with.
Why they are vulnerable: The pass rush is a problem. The Jaguars rank 26th in QB pressure percentage (32.4%) and their 16 sacks are third in the league. Allen is having the best season of his career (9 sacks), but the rest of the team has only seven. LB Travon Walker, the No. 1 overall pick in 2022, has 3.5, which matches his rookie total, but no one else has more than two sacks. The Jaguars have been able to overcome that with turnovers, but it’s hard to count on them to produce them at the same rate as they did in the first eight games. Another issue is offensive lulls in the second half: 42.9% of their drives result in no first downs, which ranks 29th. The Jaguars made game-breaking plays when necessary — WR Christian Kirk’s 44-yard catch against New Orleans and Etienne’s 56-yard catch against Pittsburgh, for example — so that helped, but the offense has yet to perform consistently at the high level the team expected. -DiRocco
Caesar sports betting: The Jaguars are +750 to win the AFC and +1600 to win the Super Bowl.
Crows
Why the Ravens have a legitimate chance to become a top seed: The Ravens have proven they can beat anyone when they are at their best. Case in point: a 39-6 loss to the Detroit Lions two weeks ago. Lamar Jackson showed flashes of his 2019 NFL MVP form with his efficient passing and elusive scrambling. He completed a career-best 70.5 percent of his throws and produced 16 runs of 10 yards or more, which is tied for first in the league. The strength of this team has been the defense, which has proven to be championship caliber since acquiring Pro Bowl middle linebacker Roquan Smith a year ago. Baltimore leads the league in fewest points allowed with 15.1 per game, as well as sacks with 31. The Ravens have a big advantage in the schedule with only three road games remaining. Jackson is 15-2 (.882) when playing at home in November, December and January.
Why they are vulnerable: The obvious reason is Jackson’s health record. He didn’t finish the last two seasons and the Ravens went 2-7 without him in December and January. Last season, Baltimore’s offense faltered in Jackson’s absence, averaging just 13 points. The other concern is the consistency of the offense in the first season under new coordinator Todd Monken. The Ravens rank 29th in the NFL in total second-half yards (134.9) and have scored three fourth-quarter touchdowns (only three teams have fewer). Baltimore has been lacking an explosive running back since JK Dobbins’ season-ending Achilles injury, and it doesn’t have a legitimate No. 3 option in the passing game after wide receiver Zay Flowers and tight end Mark Andrews. That’s why the Ravens need Jackson at full strength if they want to earn the second No. 1 seed in franchise history. –Hensley
Caesar sports betting: The Ravens are +525 to win the AFC and +1000 to win the Super Bowl.
