How does Jon Jones being out with an injury impact UFC 295, Stipe Miocic and the heavyweights?

For the second month in a row, the UFC is shuffling its pay-per-view game due to injury. This particular case also hits hard, given the names involved and the circumstances.

Jon Jones tore his pectoral tendon and will not participate in his scheduled UFC heavyweight title defense against Stipe Miocic, UFC CEO Dana White announced early Wednesday morning on social media. Jones vs. Miocic was scheduled to headline UFC 295 on November 11 at Madison Square Garden in New York.

It was a huge fight in many ways. Jones is the best MMA fighter of all time and a New York native fighting for the first time in his home state. It’s the UFC’s 30th anniversary as a promotion and Jones has been the organization’s bellwether for nearly a third of that span. On top of that, Jones is the best light heavyweight fighter of all time and Miocic is the most accomplished UFC heavyweight of all time. It was kind of a dream match.

To the UFC’s credit, as is usually the case, the matchmaking team acted quickly, booking an interim heavyweight title fight between contenders Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich. It will be the co-main event of UFC 295 behind a fight for the vacant light heavyweight title pitting former champion Jiří Procházka against Alex Pereira, the former middleweight titleholder.

What does this mean for the heavyweight division? Will we see Jones vs. Miocic or even either in the Octagon again? What impact does all this have on Pavlovich and Aspinall? ESPN MMA insiders Marc Raimondi and Jeff Wagenheim answer these questions and more below.

How serious is Jones’ injury and how will it impact the heavyweight schedule?

Raimondi: It’s serious, according to White. Jones apparently tore his pectoral tendon, will need surgery and is expected to be out about eight months. This is not an ideal scenario. But the UFC still hopes to book Jones vs. Miocic when Jones is healthy, sources tell me. So yes, they will both fight again and it will still be a big main event next year. Besides Conor McGregor, Jones is the biggest drawing card in the UFC right now – with the potential exception of Sean O’Malley – and his matchup against Miocic is a great story and legacy fight for the two.

Many fans have stated that Jones will have to fight the interim champion when he returns, whether it’s Aspinall or Pavlovich. Not necessarily. The UFC sets the rules in these situations. The provisional title is in no way binding. There is no sanctioning body here like in boxing. The UFC decides unilaterally, and an interim title is simply something the company created itself anyway. If the UFC wants to face Jones vs. Miocic first, with the interim champion waiting for that to be decided, that’s precisely what it will do. Jones vs. Miocic is the bigger fight, after all.

If Jones vs. Miocic could be booked for International Fight Week next July, that would be an ideal scenario. But that might be a little early for Jones. Stay tuned.

Why not Stipe for the interim title?

Raimondi: Many reasons. And this is the question I get asked the most on social media. Miocic was going to make a lot of money for this fight against Jones (they both were, really). Aspinall and Pavlovich don’t have nearly the same name value as Jones, and that means Miocic against either of them doesn’t bring the UFC the same type of revenue as Jones in that position.

Second, Jones was a legacy fight for Miocic, in addition to a money fight. Miocic has not fought since March 2021. He is a full-time firefighter; he doesn’t need to fight. But Jones was a name that intrigued him, and it’s a fight that all three sides have wanted to make for about two years now.

What does Miocic have to gain by winning an interim title at 41? This seems silly. The man is already a two-time UFC heavyweight champion with the best resume the division has ever seen. He has a lot more to lose – like this potential matchup against Jones – against any of these newcomers, Aspinall and Pavlovich.

Something old versus something new: Jones-Miocic versus Pavlovich-Aspinall

Wagenheim: There’s no sweetening the loss of the main event, which was supposed to be a clash between two immense characters. Jones is the consensus GOAT of the sport, and Miocic is acclaimed by many as the greatest heavyweight in history. This was a legacy-enhancing clash, worthy of the world’s most famous arena.

However, if you’re one of those attending Madison Square Garden, you’ll just have to settle for… an even better heavyweight fight.

Neither Pavlovich nor Aspinall have the star power of the original main participants, but they are the future of heavyweight MMA. And, with Jones’ injury changing everyone’s plans, perhaps the universe is telling us the sport is ready for its future that begins now. Even if Jones-Miocic is several months away, there doesn’t appear to be much ground left for either of them. Miocic is 41 years old and hasn’t competed in over 2 1/2 years. Jones, 36, has fought just once in nearly four years.

New heavyweight contenders find themselves in a less dusty place in their careers. Pavlovich, 31, has won six fights in a row. Aspinall, 30, has won nine of his last 10 matches. Each of these victories of each man came through the finish. All but one ended in the first round. (The latter fact minimizes my fear that taking this fight on short notice could quickly empty the big guys’ gas tanks.) Both Pavlovich and Aspinall are in their prime and ready to take over. It will be interesting to see which one takes control.

Which heavyweight on the roster has the best chance of beating Jones?

Wagenheim: I don’t think it’s Miocic, one foot retired. For me, it has to be the Pavlovich-Aspinall winner, because he will have eliminated the other player with “the best chance”. For either man, beating the other will be the biggest victory of his career and make him a legitimate challenger. That doesn’t mean the winner will get the job done against Jones, though. No one has beaten Jones by decision or finish in his 15-year career, and he has fought multiple world champions.

And we don’t even know when the Pavlovich-Aspinall winner will have a chance against Jones; the UFC seems more interested in rebooking the Miocic fight. If Jones stays after this to face the next generation, then the main contender could be Jailton Almeida (14 straight wins and counting) or even someone else. But even though the stakes aren’t clear for the Nov. 11 heavyweight fight, I believe that when we see a man’s arm raised that night, we will look to the next heavyweight champion of the UFC. I don’t expect that crowning moment to happen until Jones leaves the sport.