What another NCAA tournament first-round exit means for Kentucky and Calipari،
When it all started, Kentucky was dancing. Literally. John Wall, a five-star freshman and announcer of John Calipari's first recruiting class at Kentucky during the 2009-10 season, had gone viral with a dance imitated by fans across the country. From there, it was the national title run in 2012 with future NBA superstar Anthony Davis. The 2014-15 team reached the Final Four after a 38-0 start. And then the glory stopped.
The third-seeded Wildcats' 80-76 loss to 14th-seeded Oakland in the first round of the men's NCAA Tournament on Thursday night extended a continuing trend for the blue-blood program that continues to recruit some of the best players of America, but failed. translating that talent into significant playoff victories over the past decade. Give the Golden Grizzlies credit for dominating Kentucky for 40 minutes and for Jack Gohlke's explosive 32-point performance.
However, for a team that has one NCAA tournament victory since the 2019 edition, the future seems uncertain after its latest defeat. ESPN's Myron Medcalf, John Gasaway and Jeff Borzello discuss the significance of this loss for Kentucky and Oakland's victory.
What was the most important moment of the match?
John Gasaway: With apologies to the incredible Jack Gohlke, the corner 3 that DQ Cole hit with 37 seconds left in the game was absolutely crucial. Kentucky had gotten within a point, and it looked like the Wildcats might win after all. Then Cole pulled off the shot that sealed Britain's fate.
Myron Medcalf: From 8:14 to 4:43 of the second half, Oakland scored just one field goal. This was the period that allowed Kentucky to finally score and cut Oakland's lead to 64-62. However, ninety seconds later, the Wildcats were down again by six points. They had a chance, then they blew it again. They made shots down the stretch to keep the game close, but the previous run had been an opportunity to hit – and they just didn't get there.
Jeff Borzello: The moment Gohlke entered the game with 15:55 left in the first half. He attempted two 3-pointers in his first 32 seconds on the floor – missing both – but he brought a confidence and energy that never faded. He ended up producing one of the legendary performances in recent NCAA Tournament history, finishing with 32 points coming off the bench on 10-of-20 3-point shooting. 2 points. This was consistent with the rest of his season, as he attempted 327 3s and only eight 2s.
How significant was this loss to Kentucky?
Gasaway: This is extremely important as it follows the loss to No. 15 seed Saint Peter's just two years ago. Now it's happened again, and that's not how things are supposed to work when you're in Kentucky. Look at history and think about what Big Blue Nation fans expect based on reality alone. The Wildcats were 26-1 in Round of 16 matches from 1988 to 2019. Now, in the last three tournaments, UK is just 1-2 in this round. This will not be tolerated.
Medical calf: This is important because it raises legitimate questions about Calipari's approach to winning in this climate that is evolving in real time. Calipari said he told his team after the game that “this one is painful.” The scar from that loss could linger for a long time and ultimately lead to a change in direction for college basketball's winningest program.
What needs to change for the Wildcats going forward?
Borzello: Stylistically, this Kentucky team was different and seemed better equipped to win in 2024 – and win in March – than previous Kentucky teams. Calipari recruited a group of fast, dynamic guards who could play fast, make 3s and create their own shots whenever they wanted. And it still didn't work. In a world where teams are starting three or four seniors or graduate transfers, it's still difficult to win in the NCAA tournament with multiple freshmen on your roster. Given that Calipari has had the most recruiting success, it's unlikely the Wildcats will suddenly ignore high schoolers. But he may need to land a few more transfers to better balance his roster.
What does this mean for John Calipari's future in Lexington? And is there an obvious solution?
Borzello: This is the elephant in the room. The $33 million elephant. Calipari would be owed a little more than that amount if the program fired him after this season. In theory, there are ways Kentucky can find the money to buy out the remainder of his contract. Zero Sweet 16 appearances, just one tournament win since 2019 – there will be a large segment of the Kentucky fan base that wants Calipari out.
The challenge is knowing who to turn to after Calipari. Baylor's Scott Drew just announced he's staying at Baylor after Louisville knocked on his door for its current opening; Alabama's Nate Oats just signed an extension with a huge buyout; Poaching Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger would cost about $18 million; UConn's Dan Hurley probably won't leave Storrs. Is Kentucky going after someone like Billy Donovan? Between Calipari's guaranteed money, his next head coach's buyout, and paying the new coach's salary, we could be talking about an investment of over $50 million. But it will undoubtedly be a topic of discussion.
Medical calf: The Kentucky fan base will be more furious than ever. Divorce rumors have been brewing for years and this loss could make it all final. The Calipari buyout is a major factor. But the program is backed by people with deep pockets, and they may not have to pay the buyout all at once if it comes down to this.
Calipari dominated the one-and-done landscape and attracted both top high school recruits and elite transfers. However, with NIL and the portal, even blue bloods are not safe. The Wildcats would need a coach who could somehow adapt to a rapidly changing landscape. There is no clear replacement who can both replicate Calipari's success and handle the pressure of coaching in Lexington. He probably won't leave, like Jeff said. But if Calipari comes out, you call Hurley's people, ask for a number that might give him pause, and go from there.
How far can Oakland go?
Gasaway: Jack Gohlke is the most prolific 3-point shooter in the field. Trey Townsend is the Horizon Player of the Year. Oakland beating Kentucky was a surprise, but it was by no means unimaginable. Greg Kampe has a team that can score both inside and outside, as the Wildcats have learned all too well. It's not a good thing for UK that we can compare their recent tournament losses, but this Golden Grizzlies team is about as strong on paper as Saint Peter's was two years ago. A lot had to go right for the Peacocks to reach the 2022 Elite Eight, but they made it this far.
Borzello: Don't discount another Oakland win against the winner of Texas Tech and NC State, even if Gohlke doesn't hit 10 3s yet. Townsend has been out of control all season, regardless of competition. He had 17 points and 12 rebounds against Kentucky and in the regular season he scored 19 and 10 against Illinois as well as 28 points against Xavier. Rocket Watts has played at the highest level and won't be afraid of the moment. This team has been tested during the non-conference portion of the season and is playing fearless basketball with plenty of momentum.
