Premier League without VAR: Liverpool move top, Spurs third،
We’re already almost a quarter of the way through the 2023-24 Premier League season and, unsurprisingly, the VAR controversies haven’t gone away. But which clubs have been the winners and losers of the influence of the video referee?
ESPN offers you the VAR effects table. There have been 16 VAR reversals in matches so far, and we have calculated the impact they could have had on the results.
– How VAR decisions affected each Prem club in 2023-24
– VAR in the Premier League: Ultimate Guide
At this point last season, we had seen 25 decisions changed, meaning interventions are down 36% year-over-year. This is a clear sign that VARs are trying to limit their impact on matches, even if fans of some clubs feel they should be involved much more often.
However, it’s not just about the number of times a team receives a favorable VAR call, nor the number of goals affected. What is more important is when these VAR decisions take place and, more importantly, whether this impact would have ultimately changed the final score.
We’re not saying the VAR decisions were wrong – we’re just looking at what might have happened if the video assistant didn’t exist and the original decisions stood.
– JUMP TO: Losers without VAR | The winners without VAR
How we develop the VAR effects table
We only take the first VAR reversal in each game, as the calculation assumes that no subsequent VAR incident would have occurred because the entire direction of the game was changed. (Think of it like a Marvel timeline or the plot of any time travel movie.)
The VAR decision is then reversed compared to the initial call on the field: thus, if a goal is disallowed for offside, it is given as a goal.
If a penalty has been overturned, it is considered awarded and scored, unless the team in question has a penalty conversion rate below 50% on the season.
If a team was awarded a goal through a penalty or incorrect offside via VAR, the goal is disallowed.
We then consider a range of factors before deciding on a predicted outcome:
Team form: The results of the previous five matches give an indication of how a team has played in general.
Time of incident: For example, if an incident occurs late in a match, it is less likely that the score will change again after that point.
xG at the time of the incident: This allows us to take into account which team created the best chances and is in an ascendant position.
Team strength: Besides form, the general strength of a team plays a role. This takes into account a team’s league position and scoring and defending records over the course of the season.
Impact of the incident: For example, overturning a red card decision can change the outcome of a match.
These results were then used to modify the table and determine the impact of VAR on the teams’ position this season.
The table shows each team’s position after the amended results, with the arrows indicating whether their league position is better or worse without VAR.
The big winners without VAR
Liverpool fans won’t be at all surprised to have been the most affected by the impact of VAR decisions and to have won the most points.
We don’t even take into account the VAR’s failure to award Tottenham their “goal” while Luis Díaz was on the line, for two reasons. Firstly, this was not the first VAR incident in the game and therefore would not qualify. And secondly, VAR didn’t actually succeed in overturning the offside decision on the pitch.
It’s quite a turnaround for Jurgen Klopp’s men and their experience with VAR, as last season only one club (Aston Villa) made more decisions at key moments that swung results in their favor.
Now it’s reversed, and after just eight games the impact has been so great that, without VAR, Liverpool are five points better off. They would sit at the top of the table, two points ahead.
The biggest decision to come against them came at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, when Curtis Jones was shown a red card in the 26th minute. The score was 0-0 at the time, with Liverpool’s recent form slightly better than Spurs’ and at that point in the match their xG was higher. With 11 players on the pitch, the VAR effect gives Liverpool a 1-0 victory – a six-point gain over Tottenham.
Remember, the course of the match is altered by Jones remaining on the pitch, meaning Diogo Jota’s second-half red card doesn’t arrive and Liverpool finish with 11 men instead of nine.
But this is not the only match against Klopp. Away at Chelsea on the opening weekend of the season, Mohamed Salah had a goal disallowed for offside in the 29th minute with the Reds already leading 1-0. With Salah’s goal awarded, they win the match.
Three other clubs are better off without VAR – one of them being Chelsea despite this change of result against Liverpool. They also had Malo Gusto sent off at home to Villa in the 56th minute as Mauricio Pochettino’s men took the lead, with a vastly superior xG. Chelsea may have lost the game in reality, but this math says they would have won without VAR – meaning they have two extra points, moving them up two places to ninth.
There is good news for Burnley, also, who are moving out of the relegation zone, with Luton Town falling there. Vincent Kompany’s side saw a late winner at Nottingham Forest ruled out due to handball by Sander Berge.
Manchester United get a point after their home defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion, but remain 10th. A Rasmus Højlund goal was disallowed as the ball was out of play with the score at 0–0, in a match which Brighton won 3–1. We draw 1-1 with Højlund on the scoresheet.
The big losers without VAR
Unai Emery Aston Villa I had the best of VAR this season – for the second season in a row. It was thanks to Gusto’s red card that helped them secure a great victory at Chelsea. Without these three points, they drop three places to eighth, allowing Brighton, West Ham United and Newcastle United to move up one place.
But that’s only part of the story for Brighton. While Roberto De Zerbi’s men may have made some poor decisions in their 6-1 defeat at Villa, the VAR reversals have actually been in their favor and they are two points worse off without the video assistant – what comes from the change. of the result, with Højlund’s goal counting for Man United.
Spurs are one point worse in total without VAR. They were greatly helped by Jones’ red card against Liverpool which gave them three points. But there was a big VAR call against them: Son Heung-Min awarded a penalty to Brentford in a match that ended 2-2; this becomes a 2-1 victory for coach Ange Postecoglou. That’s a net loss of one point without VAR – the same as Brentford.
Nottingham Forest also lose a point thanks to losing the home draw against Burnley, as Berge’s handball is not penalized.
