Russell Wilson joining Steelers a bad sign for Kenny Pickett

PITTSBURGH — Standing before a small group of reporters on the second floor of an Indianapolis hotel during the 2024 NFL combine, Pittsburgh Steelers general manager Omar Khan expressed his “full confidence” in the quarterback -fullback Kenny Pickett.

Ten days later, just before midnight, Russell Wilson posted a video montage of Steelers fans waving terrible towels set to Styx's “Renegade” and tagged the Steelers on his social media platforms, confirming what team sources said. league told ESPN's Adam Schefter Sunday night: The Super Bowl-winning quarterback and nine-time Pro Bowler will soon sign with the Steelers on a team-friendly, one-year deal.

In a move that defies the Steelers' traditional team-building methods and appears to disregard a fundamental principle of loyalty, Khan's actions Sunday night spoke louder than his words less than two weeks ago.

Steelers executives have repeatedly said they want competition for the team's 2022 first-round pick, but a Super Bowl-winning quarterback — even past his prime — is more than just a camp arm to push Pickett. Pickett, of course, is still under contract, but the competition to retain the starting job has gotten even tougher — and it may not be a competition at all.

By signing Wilson, 35, the Steelers are telegraphing their evaluation of Pickett, suggesting he is on much more shaky footing than publicly expressed. The move also underscores another internal belief: The Steelers are in a win-now situation and believe they are one quarterback away from erasing a playoff win drought that extends through 2016.

From Wilson's point of view, this decision makes perfect sense. In Pittsburgh, Wilson has a clear path to a starting job in an organization that has a rich, winning tradition and a well-established structure under a future Hall of Fame head coach. Schematically, Wilson's skillset and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's tendencies have the potential to be a match made in football heaven.

In his final season in Denver, Wilson had a QBR of 80 using play action, compared to a QBR of 40 without it. He threw 11 touchdowns to one interception with a play and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. With no game action, Wilson threw 15 touchdowns to 7 interceptions and averaged 6.7 yards per attempt.

During his three-year tenure in Atlanta, Smith's offenses used play action at the second-highest rate (32%). And at Tennessee, Smith employed a similar philosophy, building a balanced attack through a formidable ground game anchored by Derrick Henry and a complementary passing game.

Although maligned for his decision-making and struggles in his first season in Denver, Wilson showed dramatic improvement in his second season before his release. Wilson improved from 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2022 to 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2023. The Steelers have failed to throw 26 quarterback touchdowns in a season since Ben Roethlisberger threw one 33 in 2020.

For all his improvements in 2023, Wilson still had some difficulty holding on to the ball for too long. His average time to throw (3.06 seconds) was second longest in the league, ahead of Justin Fields, and last season the Steelers struggled in pass protection, ranking 17th in throw rate. victories against passes. That means adding another first-round offensive tackle to pair with 2023 first-round pick Broderick Jones is that much more important in April's draft.

In a short-term football sense, the addition of Wilson is a boost for the Steelers offense. But in the long run, his signing raises more questions than it answers.

With a $1.2 million contract, Wilson makes perfect financial sense. During his short tenure as general manager, Khan quickly built a reputation as a tradesman and bargain-hunter for short-term solutions, such as his acquisitions of cornerback Patrick Peterson, wide receiver Allen Robinson and linebacker Kwon Alexander. For veteran minimum wage, Wilson fits the bill as Khan's signing.

And while Wilson expressed a desire to win two more Super Bowls in a recent podcast interview, he actually has more days behind him than on the horizon. Wilson is not a long-term solution, and his addition to the Steelers quarterback room muddies the future of an already uncertain position.

The Steelers must make the decision on Pickett's fifth-year option in May 2025. If Wilson does indeed land the starting job, evaluating Pickett and his abilities outside of a Matt Canada offense will become that much more difficult. And if Pickett doesn't get significant playing time this year, picking up that option — which started at $22 million for quarterbacks this season — would be financially irresponsible. Does this mean the Steelers would be back in the market for a quarterback in the 2025 draft? Or maybe in 2026 after Pickett – or even Wilson – plays one final season?

The safe option was once the most anticipated: re-signing longtime backup and late-season starter Mason Rudolph for a real competition with Pickett, perhaps even one with the scales tipped slightly in Pickett's favor. Instead, Wilson's signing all but closes the door on Rudolph's return, and according to a league source, he is expected to test free agency.

Generally conservative in their approach to free agency and favoring building through the draft, the Steelers reject tradition in favor of what they hope is a silver bullet. This could be the first step in breaking out of the cycle of mediocrity. Or it could cement their place in a directionless post-Roethlisberger purgatory.

ESPN Stats and Information contributed to this report.