Why Pochettino, Howe seem safe as Chelsea, Newcastle flounder

There have been too many defeats at Chelsea and Newcastle United this season – on and off the pitch – but it's the latter that could be enough to keep managers Mauricio Pochettino and Eddie Howe in their jobs despite their obvious underperformance .

In the modern money-driven world of football, where billionaire owners play fantasy football with real-world consequences, the bottom line is now as important, sometimes even more, than the points and trophies won on the pitch. With this in mind, Chelsea and Newcastle's respective financial losses of £90.1 million and £73.4 million will make it increasingly difficult for each club to change managers, even if they wanted to.

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At the start of this season, Monday's clash between the biggest spending team in world football (Chelsea) and the club with the richest owners (Newcastle) would normally have been considered a UEFA Champions League qualifier , or even as a match with implications. for the title race. But the reality is that the Stamford Bridge match will involve two teams closer to the relegation zone in terms of points than the top. Chelsea's 10 defeats in 26 league games and Newcastle's 11 defeats in 27 games explain why a season of optimism and expectation turned into a battle simply to finish in the top half of the Premier table League.

Despite guiding Chelsea to the Carabao Cup final last month where they lost to Liverpool at Wembley, Pochettino failed to live up to expectations as manager in his first season at the helm. Howe's side enjoyed resounding victories over Manchester City and Manchester United in the Carabao Cup, as well as a 4-1 victory over Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League before collapsing in the group stage. Yet Howe also placed himself under intense pressure at St James' Park by failing to build on last season's top four finish.

But sources have told ESPN that Pochettino and Howe are likely to finish this season and remain in their jobs, barring a late-season dip in form that leaves their bosses unable to act.

The reason for this apparent safety net is the financial situation of both clubs. Although Chelsea and Newcastle are both confident of continuing to adhere to UEFA and Premier League financial regulations, which are in place to prevent clubs from making unsustainable losses, UEFA will limit spending on compensation transfer, salaries and agent fees at 70% of their income. by 2025-26, while the Premier League's Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) allow for losses of up to £105m over three years. However, it is clear that both are now operating on a minimal financial margin.

In simpler terms, neither Chelsea nor Newcastle can afford to tear it all up and start again by sacking the manager, paying his fee, hiring a successor and then backing the new manager with significant funds in the transfer market.

Since purchasing the club from former owner Roman Abramovich in May 2022, Chelsea's new regime has spent almost £1 billion on new players, as well as a total of £26 million on compensation to Thomas Tuchel and Graham Potter following their respective dismissals as coach. . Chelsea also paid Brighton £22million to hire Potter in September 2022.

Newcastle have spent significantly less than Chelsea since the October 2021 takeover by a Saudi-led consortium, with player recruitment costs rising to £375m, but spending constraints at St. James are due to the fact that the club must build from a low base of just £29 million in annual commercial revenue before new owners take charge. Both Chelsea and Newcastle are constrained by their finances to the extent that neither can currently embark on a major summer outlay for players or a new manager.

Manchester United are in a similar situation due to overspending in the last two summer windows, and that could keep manager Erik ten Hag in job if the club decides to spend £14m to pay off the final year of his contract is too high. an expense when you have to spend money to strengthen squads. But because Newcastle and Chelsea's losses are so high – Newcastle released their figures on January 11 while Chelsea released theirs on March 7 – harsh financial realities dictate everything from player recruitment to which manager sits in the manager's office.

Pochettino has earned some credit at Chelsea for their run to the Carabao Cup final and there is still a sense that he is providing stability and overseeing the progression of a group of young players. Howe, meanwhile, has had to deal with a significant injury list this season, as well as losing major summer signing Sandro Tonali to a 10-month suspension for breaching gambling regulations.

If Chelsea or Newcastle's financial situation had been healthier, Pochettino and Howe would be in much greater danger after such dismal seasons. Yet, thanks to the record, keeping both in post is the least worst of the options facing the owners of Stamford Bridge and St James' Park.