Connecting dots: Why Kirk Cousins is likely leaving Vikings،
If history is any reliable guide, Kirk Cousins is in his final days as quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings.
It's not difficult to connect the dots of conventional wisdom at this point, and the only realistic factor to the contrary is the possibility – however remote – that Cousins makes the type of decision he hasn't. never taken before.
The first point is found in the renegotiated contract signed by Cousins last spring, which expires on March 13. The contract details actually mean that if the Vikings want to re-sign him for 2024, they will have to do so before the release. the agents' market opens next Wednesday. If they tried to sign him after that point, his 2024 salary cap hit would include a $28.5 million dead money overlay.
Signing Cousins before March 13 could have been a possibility if there were no obvious suitors around the league. But the second point came up during the NFL's scouting campaign last week. According to ESPN's Dan Graziano and many others, the Atlanta Falcons have made Cousins their top target if he hits the open market. The Falcons, of course, can only officially sign him after the deal is canceled.
This brings us to the third point to connect. At each stage of his career, Cousins has made the decision to maximize – or almost – his contractual output. His single-minded pursuit has generated $230 million in revenue since becoming a full-time starting quarterback in 2015, during which time he has made three playoff appearances and compiled a 1-3 postseason record.
No matter what the Vikings might offer him before March 13, would that be enough to convince him not to explore the Falcons option or to listen to any other team that might be interested?
Even Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell doesn't think that will be the case. In a revealing interview last weekend on NFL Network, O'Connell made it clear that Cousins would have suitors and that he would almost certainly entertain them.
“The grouping just gave everyone an opportunity, whether they were supposed to or not, to maybe have a few conversations,” O’Connell said. “But I've had the dialogue that you have with a player like Kirk Cousins; the relationship that we've built over a long period of time. I know Kirk, where he is in this whole process. He has earned the right to be a free agent. He played very good football. I think he is [17-8] since I came to Minnesota to coach him. I had a great time coaching him, his adjustment in the offense, where we adopted our version of the offense with guys like Jordan. [Addison] and Justin [Jefferson] and T.J. [Hockenson].
“I know Kirk is going to go through a complete process. He's a process guy. I hope we continue to be a big part of that process and find a way to keep him a Minnesota Viking. I m “Expect we won't be the only ones who want Kirk Cousins to be our team's quarterback in 2024.”
O'Connell's response acknowledges a realistic assessment of how Cousins is likely to approach the next few weeks, but it also reveals the selling point he's almost certainly already made to Cousins Same: The Vikings may very well represent his best chance for success in the coming years, with a coaching staff he's connected with and a dynamic lineup of weapons.
Would Cousins see things the same way? He reiterated in January that he hoped to finish his career in Minnesota and even went so far as to say, “At this point in my career, the money really isn't what it's about.”
However, he suggested that he wanted an offer that matched his desire to finish his career; he will turn 36 in August and hopes to play for several more years. While dollars may not be “what it’s all about,” he said, “it’s more about what dollars are.”
The clearest way for the Vikings to represent their commitment to Cousins is to fully guarantee their multi-year offer. And this is where the fourth point comes in.
Like O'Connell, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said he wants Cousins to return for 2024. But Adofo-Mensah spoke in more nuanced terms about how that could happen, as one might to be expected from a general manager who is required to apply a long-term vision.
“We have our interests,” Adofo-Mensah said. “He's got his own. We're going to come to the table to see if we can come up with a creative solution and kind of meet halfway. That's what any contract negotiation is. And that's what that it will be with him.”
It would be entirely reasonable for a general manager to be reluctant to give multiple guaranteed years to a quarterback who will be 36 next season and recovering from a torn right Achilles, especially in an era where the floor for quarterbacks established starters is $40 million. annually. But that leaves room for Cousins to look for better deals. If the Vikings attempt to sign him after he hits the market, they will have to overlay his new contract with the dead money figure of $28.5 million, creating what appears to be a prohibitive cap hit for 2024.
A strong argument could be made for parting ways with an aging quarterback who is recovering from the first major injury of his career. Bidding Cousins goodbye would free the Vikings from the six-year obligation to have his contract on their books, but it would also expose their lack of a succession plan and raise the very real possibility that he would be replaced by someone one whose performances are worse than those of Cousins. he will do it in Atlanta or elsewhere in future seasons.
The timing of Cousins' departure would coincide with a strong quarterback draft class, but with the No. 11 overall pick, the Vikings would almost certainly need a trade — and sacrifice future draft picks — to get one. select one from the best. by Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. This would allow them to compete for the next tier which includes Michigan's JJ McCarthy, Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon's Bo Nix. A free agent bridge starter such as Sam Darnold could also enter the equation. Longer-term possibilities could include Justin Fields, Russell Wilson or Ryan Tannehill.
Once hypothetical, these options now appear to be the most likely path for the Vikings. Barring an unusual move from Cousins, they will soon have no choice but to move on to plan B.
