Will the Bears draft Caleb Williams or trade the No. 1 pick?

INDIANAPOLIS — The buzz about what Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles will do with the No. 1 pick in April's draft grew so loud this week around the NFL that he put his phone on ” Do not disturb “.

But that hasn't stopped speculation about whether the Poles would draft USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick or trade him and rely on incumbent Justin Fields.

“You need a franchise quarterback,” said an NFC player personnel executive who expects the Poles to draft Williams. “This opportunity doesn’t come along every day.”

ESPN surveyed representatives from 22 NFL teams and asked two questions:

The combination of general managers, coaches, scouts, player personnel and other front office executives estimate by an 18-4 margin that the Bears will select Williams with the first pick on April 25.

For the second question, the score was 17-5 against swapping the pick and building around Fields. One NFC college scout thinks the Bears will draft Williams, but he thinks they should bring Fields back for a fourth year.

“It’s not even a debate,” said an AFC player personnel executive. “Trade him to Atlanta for two third-rounders and keep moving forward.”

Online sportsbook DraftKings has been offering odds on Fields' next team since early February. The Falcons' odds were as high as 6-1 on Feb. 13, but rumors began circulating early in the week that at one point prompted DraftKings to pull the deal from the market, according to a DraftKings spokesperson. On Wednesday, DraftKings reopened the market with the Falcons as -425 favorites to land Fields.

“It seems inevitable at this point,” one NFC scout said of the likelihood of the Bears selecting Williams.

Poles said Tuesday he wants to resolve the situation “as quickly as possible” because he understands the uncertainty is uncomfortable for Fields.

“I wouldn’t want to find myself in this situation either,” Polish said. “So we will gather the information, we will act as quickly as possible,” he added. [but] we're not going to be in a hurry – and see what comes up and what's best for the organization. »

An informal poll of league evaluators in January predicted that Fields would be worth a second or third round pick in a pre-draft trade.

One of the reasons many believe Chicago will move forward with a rookie quarterback is finance. Williams is expected to sign a four-year rookie contract worth an estimated $38.5 million with a fifth-year option for 2028.

Fields is entering the final year of his rookie contract, and the Bears are expected to decide whether to extend his contract or exercise his fifth-year option for the 2025 season, which is valued at $25.7 million.

“There is always a risk [of a QB not panning out]but given the current setup, it's a lower risk than other No. 1 QB selections,” an NFC pro scouting director said of Williams. “It's the most strategic approach profitable they have.

“You have a rookie contract that gives them four years to win with this current team.”

And as one NFC offensive coordinator said, “Caleb is cheaper and probably better.”

Williams isn't the only highly regarded quarterback in this draft. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. has LSU's Jayden Daniels at No. 2 to the Washington Commanders and North Carolina's Drake Maye to the New England Patriots at No. 3.

An AFC personnel official said if the Bears traded the top pick, they would receive a “historic bonus.” Someone will probably offer them the most any team has ever gotten for the pick, because that's how revered these quarterbacks will be in this draft. “

But outlook is only part of the equation. The other part is Fields, who was drafted by the previous administration with the No. 11 pick in 2021. He has shown improvement over three seasons, but he has not been able to firmly grasp the role of a budding franchise quarterback.

“I see a reset happening,” said an NFC personnel director. “It’s hard to have a conviction on a QB you didn’t draft.”

Williams, meanwhile, won the Heisman in 2022 and completed 68.6% of his passes for 3,633 yards in 12 games last season. He threw for 10,082 yards, 93 touchdowns and 14 interceptions over three years, including his first season at Oklahoma.

“Basically, you have to be sure [Fields] He’s the guy that’s leaving out Caleb now, which they don’t feel that way,” an NFC pro scouting official said.

Williams sat out the combine, saying Friday that he hoped his college tape would convince teams of his abilities.

Several comparisons have been made between Williams and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Poles, who was part of the front office that drafted Mahomes in 2017, recognized some similarities.

“The best thing he has going for him is Mahomes,” an AFC personnel executive said. “You’re going to hear this a hundred times – this is the next Mahomes.

“Peyton Manning said it a year ago: 'He's great.' The Boomer Esiasons, the Peyton Mannings, the position gurus come out and say how great he's going to be. The groundswell that this kid is going to have in terms of perception, it's going to be hard to say no to that.”

The Poles opted not to use last year's No. 1 pick, trading him to the Carolina Panthers for a package that included wide receiver DJ Moore and the Panthers' No. 1 pick this year, which was turned out to be the top overall pick.

The Panthers selected quarterback Bryce Young with the first pick last year and, after struggling during a 2-15 season, Carolina general manager Scott Fitterer was fired. CJ Stroud was picked No. 2 and guided the Houston Texans to the playoffs with one of the best rookie seasons for a quarterback in history.

“If they don’t accept Caleb, they don’t want to keep their jobs,” an AFC front office official said.

Can Williams replicate Stroud's impact? The stakes are high for an organization that hasn't had a franchise quarterback in generations.

“They better be sure [Williams is] as much of an improvement as he claims to be,” one NFC assistant coach said. “If Fields goes somewhere else and starts winning, and the new guy struggles, it's going to be a tough task.

“You don't want to give up on this guy because of this so-called can't-miss prospect, when we know the draft can be a breeze. You're not guaranteed success because you have 'picks No. 1'. attached to your name.”