Daniel Ricciardo’s comeback, Sergio Perez’s struggles, Red Bull Racing, AlphaTauri, driver market, contract rumours, United States Grand Prix

Daniel Ricciardo returns to the cockpit for this weekend’s United States Grand Prix with little on the line but plenty to prove.

Ricciardo’s big project, which consists of finding a place in a winning team, is coming to fruition. He spent the months following his exclusion from McLaren deconstructing and rebuilding himself in the Red Bull simulator as a reserve driver, and after just 10 laps he got the green light to replace ousted Nyck de Vries , in sister team AlphaTauri.

His first two races were promising, but the race ended abruptly with a crash during testing in the Netherlands that fractured his left hand and left him unable to drive until this weekend.

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But Red Bull had clearly seen enough. He was re-signed as an AlphaTauri driver before the end of September, allowing his recovery to run its course rather than rushing to the cockpit prematurely and risking further damage.

Fully recovered, Ricciardo will finally strap into his AlphaTauri AT04 later today (Saturday morning AEDT) to embark on his second comeback of the year.

It would be tempting to believe, with a contract in hand and only five races to go, that this is a low-stakes cruise to Abu Dhabi before the hard work begins in 2024.

This couldn’t be further from the truth.

Timing is everything in Formula 1, and Ricciardo’s could finally be perfect.

Alongside the West Australian’s mission to get up to speed, score points and generally impress, Sergio Pérez’s goal is to save his career.

The results are linked. Pérez’s failure could be Ricciardo’s success.

PEREZ UNDER THREATEN

Speculation over Pérez’s future in Formula 1 has been around the corner since mid-year, when an impressive start to the season including two wins from four races turned into a pile of disappointing results.

In the most dominant car on the grid, he has scored just four podiums in the last 12 races, a pitiful record that helped teammate Max Verstappen claim his third title last time out in Qatar.

While the yawning chasm with Verstappen stands at 209 points, the gap to Lewis Hamilton behind him in third is just 30 points.

Had Hamilton not crashed out of the Qatar Grand Prix on the first lap, we would almost certainly have been talking about a gap half that and the very real risk that Pérez would fail to secure second place in the standings.

There are now rumors, reported mainly from Brazil Globothat Pérez was given an ultimatum: clinch second place in the drivers’ championship or leave.

Whether or not he received exactly those conditions, there is no doubt that it would be extremely embarrassing for Pérez not to finish second given the superiority of his car, regardless of Verstappen’s obvious performance.

DISCUSSION OF PITS PODCAST: Daniel Ricciardo is ready for his first race after almost two months out with a broken hand – and as Sergio Pérez continues to battle poor form at Red Bull Racing.

Red Bull Racing would prefer to keep Pérez next season, especially because he already has a contract. The team atmosphere is largely harmonious and Verstappen appears to need no internal motivation to perform at an extremely high level.

More importantly, the constructors’ championship has already been won, with Verstappen’s individual points totaling 107 points more than Mercedes’ total.

But in the likely event that at least one rival team struggles more next year, Pérez’s strikeout rate would suddenly become critical for the team championship. Verstappen would no longer be able to carry the team alone.

The numbers paint a damning picture of Pérez’s place at Red Bull Racing as one of the most incompatible teammates on the grid.

During qualifying, no teammate did worse. On average, he qualifies 5.52 places and 0.585 seconds behind Verstappen, in both cases figures worse than those of rookie Logan Sargeant and the out-of-form Lance Stroll.

On race day, things only marginally improved. He typically finishes 2.89 places behind Verstappen, worse than all but Sargeant (4.08 places) and Stroll (4.19 places), and his 34.2 percent share of Red Bull Racing’s points is better than only the Kevin Magnussen’s 25 percent and Stroll’s 20.43 percent among the drivers who scored this season.

Those numbers came to life in Qatar, where he missed Q3 for the eighth time this season, was knocked out of the sprint fighting out of the points and finished the Grand Prix in a disappointing 10th place after taking three limits penalties. of track.

“It was a shocking race,” Red Bull Racing director Christian Horner told Sky Sports.

These results are of course lower than what Pérez is theoretically capable of. The man himself says it’s because the car evolved away from him over the course of the season, but the team claims that only made the RB19 faster.

Horner thinks it’s all in Pérez’s head.

“Sport at the highest level is a mental game as much as a physical one,” he said, according to ESPN.

“I think that’s what we need to unlock with him to give him confidence.”

“I think we really need to sit down with Checo, because we know what he’s capable of and he’s really not in that shape at the moment.

“We desperately need him to get back into form to keep that second place in the championship.”

WHAT CAN DAN DO?

Pérez’s future is in his hands, but if he continues to fumble, Red Bull Racing will be forced to look for alternatives.

Ricciardo seeks to be that option.

The Australian has declared his intention to replace Pérez since he became a reserve. Until now, that seat was only available until 2025, but it’s clear the team is quickly losing faith in the Mexican’s potential to halt his spiraling form.

A decision must be made as soon as possible. This could mean the end of the year if Pérez loses second place. It may be sometime in 2024 if it becomes clear that the team’s hopes of a third consecutive constructors’ title are taking a hit.

Ricciardo’s position on his return timeline has therefore progressed more quickly than he could have hoped. It is no longer in the consolidation phase. If he can impress in his final five rounds, it could be enough to dislodge the man occupying the seat he vacated at the end of 2018.

It is difficult to determine precisely what success on this goal will look like.

The AlphaTauri car has improved since it was last driven. Substitute Liam Lawson used Singapore’s upgrade package to perfection to score two points in the team’s best result of the year.

“The simulation was helpful to get a sense of what the changes and updates brought,” Ricciardo said. “I felt a little bit of their effect, but it’s one of those things, I think, that once I get on track, I’ll feel it fully.

“I was there in Singapore when they first tried it, and it was interesting to hear the feedback and comments, which were mostly positive. I can’t wait to see what it looks like first hand.

The AT04 is now freer in the mix among the bottom five teams rather than being anchored to the back in qualifying. Lawson and Tsunoda each earned a Q3 appearance over the final five rounds. They also had one error each in the first quarter.

But even if Ricciardo is on the radar to knock on the Q3 door and target a few rare points, he will be judged on less precise criteria than that.

Lawson has set the bar very high. The Kiwi entered the team and immediately found himself close to Tsunoda despite being thrown into the deep end.

Ricciardo will have to do better to have a chance.

Although he may benefit from a grace period given that he will lack fitness – he has only raced two weekends for the entire year so far – the suspension of judgment will be short duration.

The sooner he can make an impression, the tighter the screws will be against Pérez and the sooner his big project can come to fruition.

That’s a lot for what is supposed to be five dead rubber Grands Prix.

UNITED STATES GRAND PRIX: HOW CAN I WATCH IT?

The 2023 United States Grand Prix is ​​live and commercial-free during the races on Kayo and Fox Sports.

First practice will take place on Saturday at 4:30 a.m. (AEDT), followed by qualifying at 8:00 a.m.

The sprint penalty shootout will take place on Sunday at 4:30 a.m. before the sprint race at 9:00 a.m.

Pre-race coverage of the United States Grand Prix begins at 4:30 a.m. Monday, with lights off at 6 a.m.