The Run Home before Round 8 of AFL Women’s season, ladder predictor, finals race analysis, latest news

The only good thing about the AFL’s insistence on keeping the AFLW season short? The final race is always exciting.

With seven rounds gone and only three remaining, 13 teams still have a realistic chance of making the top eight (although some only if you squint), while there’s a surprise intruder on what should otherwise be a top four clear.

Foxfooty.com.au breaks down the AFLW finals race into The race home!

Watch every game of the NAB AFLW 2023 season LIVE and ad-free during play on Kayo Sports. Sign up now and start streaming instantly >

LATEST FOX FOOTY PODCAST – Full trade period trading day review of every AFL club

Listen below or subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify

AFLW LADDER (After round 7)

1. Adelaide Crows (7-0, 237%) – To play: at Brisbane (4th), vs North (2nd), at West Coast (17th)

2. North Melbourne (6-1, 294.4%) – To play: at Melbourne (3rd), at Adelaide (1st), against Western Bulldogs (18th)

3. Melbourne (6-1, 266.2%) – To play: against North (2nd), against Fremantle (13th), at Brisbane (4th)

4. Brisbane Lions (5-2, 173.3%) – To play: against Adelaide (1st), at St Kilda (10th), against Melbourne (3rd)

5. Essendon (5-2, 104.1%) – To play: vs West Coast (17th), vs Carlton (9th), at Gold Coast (7th)

6. Geelong (4-3, 123%) – To play: at Collingwood (8th), at Richmond (11th), against Hawthorn (14th)

7. Gold Coast Suns (4-3, 107.6%) – To play: at Port Adelaide (15th), against GWS (16th), against Essendon (5th)

8. Collingwood (4-3, 98.8%) – To play: against Geelong (6th), at Sydney (12th), against Richmond (11th)

9. Carlton (4-3, 98.1%) – To play: at GWS (16th), at Essendon (5th), vs St Kilda (10th)

10. St Kilda (4-3, 97.3%) – To play: at Fremantle (13th), against Brisbane (4th), at Carlton (9th)

11. Richmond (3-4, 92%) – To play: at Hawthorn (14th), against Geelong (6th), at Collingwood (8th)

12. Sydney Swans (3-4, 79.8%) – To play: at Bulldogs (18th), against Collingwood (8th), at Fremantle (13th)

13. Fremantle (3-4, 70.7%) – To play: vs St Kilda (10th), at Melbourne (3rd), vs Sydney (12th)

14. Hawthorn (2-5, 67.2%) – To play: v Richmond (11th), v Port Adelaide (15th), at Geelong (6th)

15. Port Adelaide (1-6, 56.5%) – To play: vs Gold Coast (7th), at Hawthorn (14th), vs GWS (16th)

16. GWS Giants (1-6, 53.3%) – To play: against Carlton (9th), at Gold Coast (7th), at Port Adelaide (15th)

17. West Coast Eagles (1-7, 41.7%) – To play: at Essendon (5th), v Western Bulldogs (18th), v Adelaide (1st)

18. Western Bulldogs (0-7, 55.9%) – To play: vs Sydney (12th), West Coast (17th), vs North (2nd)

THE TOP FOUR RACE

1. Adelaide Crows (7-0, 237%) – To play: at Brisbane (4th), vs North (2nd), at West Coast (17th)

2. North Melbourne (6-1, 294.4%) – To play: at Melbourne (3rd), at Adelaide (1st), against Western Bulldogs (18th)

3. Melbourne (6-1, 266.2%) – To play: against North (2nd), against Fremantle (13th), at Brisbane (4th)

4. Brisbane Lions (5-2, 173.3%) – To play: against Adelaide (1st), at St Kilda (10th), against Melbourne (3rd)

5. Essendon (5-2, 104.1%) – To play: vs West Coast (17th), vs Carlton (9th), at Gold Coast (7th)

One of these things is not like the others.

The AFLW’s perennial contenders remain at the top of the ladder, with the premiership almost certain to be won by one of Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane Or North Melbourne.

It is not a surprise; in particular, the top three won five of the first six allocated positions and occupied 10 of the 12 places for the Grand Final. (The 2018 Bulldogs, who won it, and the 2019 Blues, who lost to Adelaide, are the only interlopers.)

But then there is Essendonwho, in only their second season at AFLW level, have a huge chance of a top-four finish with two rounds remaining – and could certainly stay there from there.

If the Bombers beat lowly West Coast this week and Brisbane lose to unbeaten home side Adelaide, it will be Tullamarine Women who fill the double chance spots and just need to fend off compatriots Carlton and Gold Coast. the last two weeks. They could even afford a defeat in one of these matches, if the Lions lose to reigning premiers Melbourne again in the final round.

In reality, Essendon – who beat Hawthorn (currently 14th), St Kilda (10th), Fremantle (13th), Geelong (6th) and Richmond (11th) – are not among the top four teams. They were blown out of the park in their only game against a top four team (47 point loss to Adelaide).

But this is where the imbalance has a real impact. Despite West Coast coach Michael Prior’s now-retracted complaint, the better teams play each other more often, and so the Lions – near-eternal bridesmaids in this competition, despite being constantly sought out for finding talent – could be forced into an elimination final.

The next two weeks should decide the minor premiership, with the Kangaroos likely to overtake the Crows if they win (including a round 9 win over Adelaide), and Melbourne hiding if the teams above them stumble.

RACE FOR THE LAST FOUR PLACES IN THE FINAL

5. Essendon (5-2, 104.1%) – To play: vs West Coast (17th), vs Carlton (9th), at Gold Coast (7th)

6. Geelong (4-3, 123%) – To play: at Collingwood (8th), at Richmond (11th), against Hawthorn (14th)

7. Gold Coast Suns (4-3, 107.6%) – To play: at Port Adelaide (15th), against GWS (16th), against Essendon (5th)

8. Collingwood (4-3, 98.8%) – To play: against Geelong (6th), at Sydney (12th), against Richmond (11th)

9. Carlton (4-3, 98.1%) – To play: at GWS (16th), at Essendon (5th), vs St Kilda (10th)

10. St Kilda (4-3, 97.3%) – To play: at Fremantle (13th), against Brisbane (4th), at Carlton (9th)

11. Richmond (3-4, 92%) – To play: at Hawthorn (14th), against Geelong (6th), at Collingwood (8th)

12. Sydney Swans (3-4, 79.8%) – To play: at Bulldogs (18th), against Collingwood (8th), at Fremantle (13th)

13. Fremantle (3-4, 70.7%) – To play: vs St Kilda (10th), at Melbourne (3rd), vs Sydney (12th)

As noted above, the Bombers have a real chance of making the top four, but as their percentage shows, they’re realistically in the chasing pack – and a few stumbles could put them at risk of missing out on the eight entirely.

They should settle for six wins unless things go really bad, and that’s the number everyone else has to chase too – meaning the Cats, Suns, Magpies, Blues and Saints can only afford ‘only one defeat, while the Tigers, Swans and Dockers must do so. win everything.

That makes some games absolutely huge, including this weekend’s Dockers-Saints and Magpies-Cats.

THE Collingwood–Geelong The winner will be well placed to take a place in the eight, with two subsequent matches against lesser opposition to round out the year. The Magpies, having beaten Brisbane and Essendon but lost to Gold Coast and St Kilda, are something of an enigma while the Cats’ defeats have all come against the top five. That is to say that both teams are of final quality.

Golden Coast‘s next two games will be against bottom four opponents, and they should be 6-3 with a high percentage heading into an equally winnable matchup with the Bombers, so they should get there; although it should be noted that they enjoyed very close victories (one point over Richmond, four points over the winless Bulldogs, two points over Carlton).

So the Suns and Bombers should definitely reach six wins, and the Cats and Magpies are certainly pretty good too. Is this our bottom half of the eight?

GOOD, st kilda is making a late charge after a difficult start this year under coach Nick Dal Santo, but still has to face a very tough Brisbane side – so six wins appears to be his ceiling.

Carlton could hope to reach six, or even seven wins, but they have a mammoth fortnight to finish the year, with an accessible but in-form Essendon and a likely pre-final playoff final against the Saints.

On 3-4 sides, Richmond – a surprising top four finish the previous season – poses the biggest threat. That top four finish earned them a reasonably tricky draw and resulted in defeats to Brisbane and Adelaide to start the year.

Combined with their loss to Essendon and the one-point thriller against Gold Coast, they’re probably too far away, but if they eliminate both the Cats and Magpies, they have a chance of pinching one of these teams in the eight. In the process.

Sydney impressed in their second season, having won a wooden spoon while being winless in season seven, but their victories came against the Giants, Eagles and Power – the bottom four teams.

They play another one this week, but the loss of emerging superstar Ally Morphett for the rest of the season due to a wrist injury will likely ensure they can’t also knock out Collingwood and Fremantle to complete a stunning charge into the eight.