Why Man City could defend UCL, but another treble is unlikely،
Pep Guardiola is a difficult man to read. The Manchester City manager can often betray a sense of false modesty, suggesting incredible achievements are beyond his team's limits before seeing his players do what he initially said was impossible. Last season's hat-trick is a perfect example.
Perhaps Guardiola is simply adopting the same old 'mind games' that most successful bosses deploy in an attempt to ease the pressure on their teams and lower expectation levels. But when a top manager downplays the chances of winning, no one really believes him.
Yet as City resume their defense of their Champions League title when they face FC Copenhagen in Denmark on Tuesday in the last 16 first leg, Guardiola has categorically ruled out the prospect of the Premier League champions repeating the treble of the year last.
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“It’s a fairy tale, it’s more complicated than that,” he said last week. We have a 99.99% chance that we are not going to win the treble because never, never, never, never, never, anyone has achieved it. If it was easy, another team – Manchester United at this time – – I would do it again. It's not easy. Everything is so difficult in this business, what we've done in the past doesn't guarantee anything.”
Another false modesty, or a case of Guardiola giving everyone connected to City a cold dose of reality?
The truth is that Guardiola may be right. Since the start of the Champions League era in 1992, seven teams, including City, have achieved the treble of domestic championship, domestic cup and Champions League. To date, none of them have confirmed their feat by repeating the feat 12 months later.
In 1999-2000, Sir Alex Ferguson's treble winners Manchester United defended the Premier League title, but were knocked out in the Champions League quarter-finals by Real Madrid. That season, United were unable to defend the FA Cup after withdrawing from the competition to compete in the FIFA Club World Cup in Brazil.
A decade later, Guardiola's Barcelona have won just one competition – La Liga – after completing the treble in 2008-09, while Serie A champions Inter Milan continued their treble in 2009 -10 in only winning the Coppa Italia the following season.
German giants Bayern Munich achieved the treble in 2012-13 and 2019-20, but they completed a domestic double in 2013-14 and only won the Bundesliga in 2020-21, while Luis Enrique's Barcelona won La Liga and the Copa del Rey in 2015-16. but were knocked out of the Champions League in the quarter-finals, ending hopes of consecutive trebles.
But even if history does not favor City in their quest to become the first team to achieve a treble in successive seasons, they have an advantage none of their six predecessors had in the Champions League: no emerging team does not seem ready to claim his throne.
Vicente del Bosque's great Real Madrid team, which won two Champions Leagues in three seasons, ended United's hopes in 2000; Jose Mourinho's three-time winners Inter knocked out Barcelona in 2010; Bayern were ousted by Carlo Ancelotti's Real Madrid in 2014; Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid represented Barcelona in 2016 before losing to Real in the final.
In 2021, Bayern's defense of their European crown ended against Paris Saint-Germain in the quarter-finals. That year, when Chelsea won the title, it was perhaps the only example of a treble winner failing in a relatively weak field. They are usually eliminated by a formidable opponent.
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But it is difficult to identify such a threat to City in this season's competition. Bayern are struggling domestically under Thomas Tuchel, with Saturday's 3-0 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen increasing the real likelihood that Bayern will fail to win the Bundesliga for the first time since 2011, while the PSG are a declining force in the Champions League after the recent departures of Neymar and Lionel Messi.
Barcelona are treading water in La Liga, Italian champions Naples are mid-table in Serie A, while neither Borussia Dortmund nor Atletico Madrid look set to emerge as surprise winners. Arsenal are yet to convince they have the consistency and experience to win the Champions League for the first time and although Inter look strong at the top of Serie A, City would have no fear against the team. Nerrazzurri should they meet, after beating Simone Inzaghi's team in the final last season in Istanbul.
That leaves Real as City's biggest threat, but although midfielder Jude Bellingham – who is expected to be out until March with an ankle injury – has been outstanding this season, the Liga still appear to be short of a proven goalscorer following Karim Benzema's move to Al Ittihad last summer. And City beat Real 5-1 on aggregate in last season's semi-final, so Guardiola won't mind a clash against Ancelotti's side.
The team City fear the most – Liverpool – aren't even in the Champions League this season, so the path to glory in the competition seems more than navigable. But the Champions League is only part of the treble. Liverpool still stand in the way of City in the Premier League and FA Cup, so perhaps Guardiola is right to play down his side's triple chances.
The Champions League may be the easiest to win, but while City are the team to beat across the board, their domestic challenge is likely to be the toughest and the one that will ultimately bring them down and prove Guardiola right to be pessimistic.
