Way-too-early look at summer transfers: Mbappe, Salah, Toney?

The January transfer window was therefore a fiasco. Premier League clubs have spent just over £100m on new players, just 1/8 of the staggering spend of over £800m in 2023. With the growing importance of Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) and Everton and Nottingham Forest accused of breaches, clubs were careful with their money.

This time, too, Saudi Arabia had no cash to fuel its spending spree, and the impact on the rest of Europe was felt hard on deadline day, as very few things actually happened.

But have no fear! Summer will be different. Many Premier League clubs will turn the page on a new financial year and be able to spend, with Saudi Arabia stalking the market again, which will also drag the rest of Europe into a spending race.

With that in mind – and with the wish to hastily forget about the really dry January of 2024 – let's take a much-too-early look at the major transfer deals we could see happening this summer.

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Kylian Mbappé: from Paris Saint-Germain to Real Madrid, free

Sources have confirmed to ESPN that Mbappé will finally complete a free transfer to Real Madrid this summer when his contract expires, bringing an excruciating saga to an end (even though we've said it before!)

There are still many things to be determined before this one is actually approved, such as the Frenchman's weekly salary and availability for the Summer Olympics, but the most important factor – Mbappé's own decision – is now cemented.

If he joins the Santiago Bernabéu this summer, he will forgo a huge bonus of around 80 million euros owed to him by PSG and join forces with the electric trio of Vinícius Jr., Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham, perhaps forming to be the most feared attacker. quartet in the world.

Mohamed Salah: Liverpool to Al Ittihad, €120 million

The summer of 2024 is already shaping up to be a tough one for Liverpool, as long-time manager Jürgen Klopp has announced he will be leaving the club. The last thing they need is also scary speculation about Salah, but it's almost guaranteed that Al Ittihad – who offered 170 million euros to sign him last summer – will try their luck again one year later.

At this point, Salah will only have one year left on his contract, which will give Al Ittihad an advantage in negotiations, as they will be banking on the fact that they could sign the Egypt international for free the following summer. This is essentially Liverpool's last chance to collect a mammoth transfer fee, which, judging by history, is something they have always been quite willing and cold-blooded to do.

Think about it: Klopp and Salah gone? It really would feel like the end of an era.

Ivan Toney: Brentford in the top six, 60 million euros

Toney has never hidden his desire to play for a big Premier League team and, having only just returned from an eight-month betting suspension, that desire will likely only intensify as he looks to catch up lost time.

Like Salah, Toney's contract expires in 2025, meaning he will enter the final 12 months of his deal this summer. A club like Brentford, who continually punch above their weight in moving their players for transfer profits, will almost certainly accept that it is time for him to go. But they will still require significant fees.

Chelsea and Arsenal will likely enter this conversation, perhaps others too. If he impresses for England at Euro 2024, that could complicate things, but by September it's almost certain Toney will have a new home.

Karim Benzema: Leave Al Ittihad, Free

Benzema was tipped for a move at the end of January due to the untenable situation he finds himself in at Al Ittihad: he is said to have been training in isolation after falling out with management and has made it clear he wants to leave. Chelsea, Arsenal and his boyhood club Lyon have all been mentioned as possible rescue destinations, but his astronomical salary (over €100m a year, tax-free), age (36) and track record of injuries likely all contributed to teams eventually coming out on top.

Perhaps over the next five months he and Al Ittihad will reconcile, leading to his reintroduction to the team. But otherwise, Benzema will have to find a new club. It could be as simple as reassigning him to the Saudi Pro League, but he was not keen on a loan move in January and a return to Europe could again be on the cards.

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Laurens: Only two clubs in Europe can opt for Osimhen

Julien Laurens joins the ESPN FC show to discuss Victor Osimhen's future after the Nigerian striker said he has decided his future.

Victor Osimhen: Naples to Chelsea, €130 million

Osimhen has already made a decision about his future. Unfortunately, he hasn't told us where it is yet.

He has a huge €130 million release clause in his contract and that excludes almost all destinations. PSG could seek to replace Mbappé with him; otherwise, only high-end Premier League clubs, or those in Saudi Arabia (which he has already refused) can find this money.

Luckily for Osimhen, his skillset fits almost any league, style, or team, so he'll likely do well wherever he ends up. But a move to big-spending Chelsea, who have been looking to solve their striker problem for years, seems most likely.

Bruno Guimarâes: Newcastle United at PSG, €100 million

It looks like Newcastle United will have to shed a star player in 2024 to meet the PSR, and while it would break fans' hearts, the most logical one would be Guimarâes.

His impact on Tyneside has been incredible, helping Newcastle from the relegation zone to the Champions League in just a year and a half, establishing himself as one of the best midfielders in the world.

He is good enough to command a huge fee and reportedly has a release clause of over €100 million, while ESPN Brazil reported that he is a top target for PSG this year.

Kevin De Bruyne: Manchester City in Saudi Arabia, €60 million

Now that De Bruyne is back in action after injury, so is the discussion about his future. The 32-year-old is approaching the final year of his contract with Manchester City and while manager Pep Guardiola would like to sign him for several more, it is not necessarily up to him.

Recent reports suggest that the Saudi Pro League will take a chance on KDB, offering him a huge salary and City a huge sum to part ways with him. Given his contract status, age and recent injuries, they might well be tempted.

Aaron Ramsdale: to leave Arsenal, €40 million

The noise around Ramsdale's surprise benching at the start of the season has died down now, as Brentford loanee David Raya is the clear No.1 choice. Once it became clear that no January move would be sanctioned, any transfer buzz (with links to Chelsea and Newcastle) also subsided. But next summer it will once again be one of the hottest topics, because Ramsdale simply cannot allow this situation to continue.

There is, however, a general lack of vacancies between clubs in England and Europe's top clubs. At a glance, perhaps only Roma might seriously need to address the goalkeeping position as it is, so Ramsdale may have to wait out an injury or drop a little further down in ranking than he wants to find playing time. And in the meantime, his chances of becoming English No. 1 seem slim.

Rafael Leão: AC Milan to PSG, €120 million

PSG has a few months to prepare for Mbappé's departure, and by prepare, we mean identify who they want to replace him with.

In the team they already have 21-year-old striker Bradley Barcola, who is really blossoming, as well as Ousmane Dembélé, Marco Asensio and Lee Kang-In who can all play there, but l The modern history of this club suggests that they will look to sign a major star to fill the void.

Manchester United's Leão and Marcus Rashford have been mentioned as possible targets, with Rashford's recent rift with manager Erik ten Hag adding some fuel to the fire on this rumor. But sources told ESPN that Leão was the one they wanted the most. He has a release clause of 175 million euros, but it is likely that Milan will let him leave for less.