Australian Grand Prix preview, Francesco Bagnaia’s championship defence, Jorge Martin’s title challenge, Jack Miller’s KTM switch, Phillip Island

Is there a more spectacular place in the world to watch grand prix motorcycle racing than Phillip Island?

This ribbon of bitumen perched on the edge of Bass Strait is unique. Its fast, flowing turns provide a driving challenge enjoyed by riders, and its exposure to southerly wind squalls and sudden rain bursts make it an unpredictable beast to tame.

This heady combination means the racing is always good at the Australian Grand Prix, which has become a perennial favorite during the 27 years it has been held at Phillip Island.

There is no indication that this year will be an exception.

With a title fight intensifying, a championship combination drawing to a close and a home crowd favorite with a point to prove, this year’s Australian Grand Prix is ​​full of storylines that will only be resolved when the checkered flag falls on Sunday – rain, shine. or wind.

HOW WILL THE TITLE FIGHT TWIST?

Whether the title is decided or not, the Australian Grand Prix will certainly play a central role, with championship protagonists Francesco Bagnaia and Jorge Martin both arriving in the West Indies with points to prove.

Bagnaia is back on form – or so he says. After a strong opening phase of the year, the middle of the season became a chore due to a wrist injury and then the heavy bruising suffered in that horrific first round crash in Barcelona.

What was once a 66-point lead over Martin has been entirely eroded, with the Spaniard moving seven points clear after last weekend’s sprint in Indonesia.

Maybe it was the impact of hitting rock bottom, or maybe it was just the timing, but Bagnaia’s performance on Sunday to regain his lead was sublime – and a reminder that he remains the top dog as reigning champion.

But he needed Martin to emerge from what had been a commanding lead to come away with his 18-point advantage, and that provides its own motivation for the title chaser.

“I’m happy to be the fastest,” Martin said afterwards. “Today, no one was at my pace.

“I hope we can demonstrate that at Phillip Island.”

Both drivers will be determined to stake their claim this weekend, which will set the tone for the rest of the season.

It’s a fascinating dynamic. They use equal machines, and while both are lightning-fast, both also have an error-prone history. Clean performances, and not just big ones, will be crucial.

The pressure will only increase from there, and how they respond will determine their chances of success.

CAN JACK MILLER AVENGE LAST YEAR’S LOST PODIUM?

Jack Miller had the rare honor of taking a corner on the legendary Phillip Island Grand Prix circuit that bears his name last season. A ride now takes a driver down (Wayne) Gardner Straight, around (Mick) Doohan Corner, through the Southern Look, past (Casey) Stoner Corner, and then into Miller Corner.

That his name is recognized among his decorated compatriots is only a reward for his long service to Australia in the premier class.

But it was just luck that Miller was knocked out of the race last year at his new turn, given his family and friends who gather every year at that turn.

On his last visit to the island with the Ducati leathers, Alex Márquez found himself behind him after just eight laps, ending the Australian’s excellent run of form in the previous two races.

Given that the top seven riders finished a second behind winner Álex Rins in a thrilling duel for supremacy at Phillip Island, it probably also cost him a big result on home soil.

“It felt like last year we were in the fight for victory,” he told Fox Sports. “But for sure, I think we’ll have another one this year.”

It’s hard to say whether his chances are better, worse or unchanged this season.

He’s coming home after ending his poor run of form, but KTM hasn’t been at his best when it comes to podium finishes in recent months. Phillip Island also offers some of the big braking and cornering areas that its RC16 excels at.

But KTM has a new carbon fiber chassis that it’s very happy with, the rear grip of which should help propel it on long sweeps of the track.

And this circuit tends to even out the differences between the bikes anyway, giving the rider a chance to make the difference.

Revenge for the podium lost last year could therefore be largely in the hands of Miller.

MARC MÁRQUEZ’S BEST CHANCE OF VICTORY — AND JAPAN’S?

No manufacturer hopes for a level playing field more than Honda.

The sport’s most successful team is at rock bottom, lost at the bottom of the constructors’ standings.

Despite the sudden departures of talisman Marc Márquez for a Ducati satellite team and LCR’s Álex Rins for the barely more competitive Yamaha, the Honda factory team is the only one without a full crew with just a few weeks to go from the end of the season.

A podium for Márquez from third place in Japan two rounds ago was a rare positive point. Only Rins’ almost unbelievable victory in the United States stands out, even though that was several months ago – and a broken leg for the Spaniard –.

But Phillip Island is a fun piece. On paper, he doesn’t favor any particular bike, but prefers a confident rider ready to take it on.

That sounds a lot like Marc Márquez.

The six-time premier class champion has a love-hate relationship with the track, winning here like clockwork every other year since 2015. That means he’s expected this season. After winning in 2019 before the pandemic and finishing second last year, his record suggests he should climb the top step again.

It’s also probably his last best chance to win on a Honda before moving to Ducati next year, with no other circuit likely to minimize the Japanese bike’s problems as easily as Island.

But this better chance could coincide with Yamaha and Fabio Quartararo finally returning to reasonable form, having collected two podiums in the last three rounds. Quartararo’s third place in Indonesia was particularly courageous.

The Frenchman is yet to win in Australia in any category, but Yamaha has won three of the last eight races here, sharing the spoils with Honda and Suzuki.

He has just equaled his longest losing streak, having gone 25 races without climbing to the top step. This could be his best chance to avoid breaking new ground and avoiding the risk of ending a winless season.

CAN DIGI SAVE HIS SEAT?

Fabio di Giannantonio is the only current rider without a contract next season – excluding Pol Espargaró, who is retained as a KTM reserve rider in 2023 – and it is time for him to agree a new deal.

The second-year Italian lost his Gresini seat to Márquez, and his future in the premier class depends entirely on what Honda wants to do to fill the Spaniard’s missing seat.

Di Giannantonio is not himself in the running for the Honda factory seat, but he can put himself at the top of the list regardless of which team Márquez’s replacement comes from, with the LCR and RNF being its most likely potential destinations.

However, he has work to do to get there.

The 25-year-old has been slow in MotoGP so far, but is coming off the best two weekends of his career, culminating with a fourth place in Indonesia last weekend.

Combined with the obvious pressures to maintain his place in the sport, the emotion of the result overwhelmed him in parc ferme, where he was spotted by broken television cameras.

“I’m a human. Like everyone, I have emotions, I have feelings,” he said. Accident. “Of course it was difficult, because it’s not just a sport, it’s my life.

“I always worked and focused on getting better and better, faster and faster. Today it’s not a victory, it’s not a podium, but it’s a great result which gives you a little [reward]. It was a good time.

His best chance to make a good impression is this weekend. On a circuit that gives the driver the opportunity to make a difference, the time has come to put his two seasons of learning into practice and build his retention file.

WHAT IS THE WEATHER DOING?

It wouldn’t be a weekend at Phillip Island without some talk about the weather – and without a few weather disturbances. This year will be no exception.

The runners arrive on Thursday in a sunny temperature of 23°C. Friday’s tests are essentially the same, at 22°C but with strengthening winds.

Conditions deteriorate Saturday, however, with a 70 percent chance of rain and winds reaching 35 kilometers per hour.

But the island reserves its most extreme weather for Sunday, when there are almost certain forecasts of rain of up to six millimeters, southerly gusts of 45 kilometers per hour and a maximum temperature of just 16C.

While heavy rain could disrupt the race day, it is the wind that will worry race organizers the most, as it will rush unchecked off Bass Strait and around the circuit. Too loud and sessions risk being postponed for safety reasons.

But even if conditions are safe enough to continue, the weather will be the first challenge every driver will have to overcome at what is usually one of the most exciting grands prix of the year.