UFC title matchup projections: What does our model say about Volkanovski-Topuria?،
What do the analyzes say about championship fights in 2024? Using betting line-independent predictive models, we examined how each champion's matchup appears from a favorability perspective.
Basically, is this a good match for the champion or the challenger? Entries take into account each fighter's performance metrics inside the octagon and select factors about the fighter outside the cage. The higher the score, the more favorable the matches of the incumbent champions.
These scores do not indicate how to bet the fight versus the relative favorability going from riskiest matchup to best.
Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker are looking at five future title fights currently scheduled, as well as one fight that is likely to be booked. Kuhn provides the model projections for each fight, while Parker details the betting outlook.
UFC Championship Fights Confirmed
Men's bantamweight title: Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs. Ilia Topuria, UFC 298 February 17, 2024
Analysis: +0.21, slightly favorable to the champion.
Kuhn on the meaning of numbers: Volkanovski is undoubtedly flirting with GOAT status at featherweight, having proven his talent against elite talent. While Topuria solidified his title chance with a lopsided victory, the quality of his opponents is nowhere near what the champion has faced in recent years. A new face in the title picture is welcome, but don't expect Topuria to have nearly the same success he had in earning his title shot.
Parker on where bettors are leaning: Volkanovski by decision. Volkanovski is coming off another loss to Islam Makhachev in his rematch. He put in a remarkable performance in a fight many thought he won against the lightweight champion in their first fight, but it wasn't close. Now he returns to featherweight and takes on a rising star. Topuria is a good wrestler with technical boxing and has a ton of power. In his fight against Josh Emmett, Topuria showed every aspect of his game and he looked impeccable. However, the difference between fighting Emmett and Volkanovski is vast. Look for Volk to win by decision and the fight to go the distance.
Men's featherweight title: Sean O'Malley (c) vs. Marlon Vera, UFC 299 March 9, 2024
Analysis: -0.1, unfavorable to the champion
Kuhn on the meaning of numbers: O'Malley's power striking accuracy is off the charts, arguably the best in the UFC today. And he can lead the action with his reach. However, Vera's knockdown rate is much higher and he has more experience in the championship rounds. While O'Malley will be favored, Vera will have a chance to punch. With 19 cumulative knockdowns between them, fireworks seem to be in store for this revenge.
Parker on punters' opinion: O'Malley to win; over 3.5 turns. Both fighters start slow and generally find their rhythm in the second. Based on the size of a favorite O'Malley, I lean in the direction of Suga Sean. His range and movement will be the key to victory in this match. And if you can get more odds, I would love for this fight to last longer than 3.5 rounds, maybe even longer than 4.5 rounds.
