Sinner vs. Medvedev — Who will win the Australian Open men’s title?

A first Australian Open champion will be named Sunday after the men's final (3:30 a.m. ET; ESPN and ESPN+). Will it be three-time finalist Daniil Medvedev? Or will Jannik Sinner win his first Grand Slam title?

Our experts make their predictions.

What can Sinner do to defeat Medvedev?

Brad Gilbert: Fisherman must continue to dominate the center of the court and continue his wide and precise serve on both courts, making many easy plus-one serve shots, which were very effective throughout the tournament.

Bill Connelly: While Sinner won three straight against Medvedev, all three were close: two went three sets and the other featured two tiebreakers. So the little things will matter significantly.

In his three victories against Medvedev, for example, Sinner saved 75% of break points, compared to 51% in defeats. That, and his improvement against Medvedev's second serve – he won 64% of Medvedev's second serve points in their Tour finals meeting – were the biggest differences. If he can pounce on Medvedev's second serve and win the majority of break points overall, he's in great shape. (You are in good shape any of them corresponds to where you do that, come to think of it…)

D'Arcy Maine: Since this is his first grand final, Sinner will definitely be nervous. We saw him tighten up in the third set against Novak Djokovic as he tried to close out the match, so he will have to try to stay as calm and composed as possible. Easier said than done, of course.

Although he is known for his endurance, Medvedev enters the final having played five sets in the semi-final and quarter-final. His energy level – especially compared to Sinner who only lost one set in Melbourne – could still be a weak point. If Sinner comes out strong like he did against Djokovic on Friday – taking a stunning two-set lead in just 73 minutes – it's hard to think Medvedev will be physically up to the challenge of stopping him. A fast start, followed by continued aggression and increased focus, could be what Sinner needs to win his first major trophy.

Jake Michaels: There is no need to change a winning formula, and I dare say that will be the mentality of Sinner and his camp ahead of his first Grand Slam final. Throughout the tournament, Sinner served well, played tremendous defensive tennis, kept unforced errors low, and improved his game in decisive moments. If he can continue to check all those boxes, that’s a recipe for success; just ask 10-time champion Djokovic. And if Sinner gets off to a quick start, the finish line might come quickly.

Matt Walsh: Strike early and quickly. It was a success against Djokovic, and one would think it would be a success against Medvedev, who has already played two five-setters and two four-setters in this tournament for a total of 20 hours and 33 minutes on court. Sinner, on the other hand? 14 hours and 44 minutes. He will undeniably be fresher than his opponent, and one can only wonder – as strong as Medvedev is mentally – if Medvedev can sustain himself for another marathon.

Sinner must also maintain pressure in his service games. He saved 26 of 28 (93%) break chances in this tournament, and maintaining this level will allow him to win a first Grand Slam title.

What can Medvedev do to defeat Sinner?

Gilbert: The $64,000 question is: How will Medvedev be physically after five grueling sets in a row and three overall during the tournament? Normally he likes to play long points with lots of variety. With a very precise service, earning a lot of free points will be crucial for him.

Connelly: Grind. Fitness and best-of-five situations have been issues for Sinner in the past – he is 1-6 all-time against top-20 opponents in five sets, and he has played four matches of four hours during his career, losing everything. four.

Obviously, if Sinner's recent progress is permanent, then past results don't matter much, but if there's one thing we know about Medvedev, it's that he has the legs . He has already won two four-hour matches in this same tournament. You must knock him out; otherwise he will survive you. Sinner's game may be too difficult for anyone right now, but the longer the rallies, the longer the games and the longer this match lasts, the more the advantage shifts to Medvedev.

Maine: While it seems unlikely, given the focus he showed throughout the tournament, Sinner could arrive in the final with an emotional hangover, having beaten the ultimate Goliath in Djokovic two days prior.

If that's the case, Medvedev needs to rely on his own major final experience and exploit a slow start from Sinner as much as he can. But more realistically, Medvedev simply has to keep fighting until the very last point. While Medvedev spent almost six hours more on court than Sinner over the course of the fortnight, his stamina and scrappy fightback mentality have been his bread and butter in this tournament. Even when down two sets, a position he held twice in the tournament, Medvedev never panicked and he said those victories gave him confidence heading into the final.

No one has found a way to push Sinner to five sets in Melbourne, but if anyone can do it, it's Medvedev. And as Bill Connelly mentioned, this scenario would certainly favor Medvedev.

Michaels: Win quickly! Only once in the last 25 years has anyone reached a major final after playing more minutes in their first six matches than Medvedev. Meanwhile, Sinner is much fresher, playing 14 hours and 44 minutes. The longer the match goes, the more it favors Sinner, so Medvedev needs to take risks early and try to gain a lead.

Walsh: It almost seems counterintuitive to say “stay on the pitch as long as possible”, but that's exactly what Medvedev is good at and what Sinner hasn't faced. Sinner's run to the final was a breeze compared to Medvedev's, so putting some pressure on the Italian player to get into service games could disrupt his rhythm.

Medvedev has been excellent in clutch situations; he won five of his six tiebreaks this tournament, including two against Alexander Zverev in the semifinals as he faced elimination. Medvedev can extend rallies – if he can get inside Sinner's head, that could be the advantage Medvedev needs.

Who will win?

Gilbert: I think right now Sinner is the heavy favorite based on the amount of tennis Medvedev has had to play, even though Medvedev has a 6-3 head-to-head lead.

Connelly: This just feels like the Sinner era. He is 26-3 since the US Open and has won three of four against Djokovic, two in a row against Carlos Alcaraz and three in a row against Medvedev. The longer this match goes on, the more it might start to favor Medvedev, but I just think Sinner's game is too good right now. He won it in four sets. Maybe three.

Maine: While Sinner's run to the final has been almost flawless and in many ways this title feels like it's his to win, Medvedev has the advantage in terms of experience and mental strength and that will be the difference on Sunday. He knows what it takes to win a major final – and all the emotions that come with such a title on the line – and he has proven he can fight his way to victory, even if the deficit seems insurmountable. . Medvedev in five sets.

Michaels: I hate to say it, but I think Sinner wins this one comfortably. The Italian player's superb performance against Djokovic in the semi-final rightly places him as the hot favorite for the title, and I'm not sure Medvedev has the legs to outlast him. The last three meetings between the two men have gone Sinner's way, and I'd be shocked if that streak didn't continue.

Walsh: The only reservation I have about saying Sinner here is: does he think he climbed the mountain before the actual summit? Defeating Djokovic in the semi-final must be a huge loss of emotion – even if he wouldn't admit it – and qualifying for a first Grand Slam final will be an effort. Medvedev? He's been here before, twice in fact, and knows what heartbreak feels like at Rod Laver Arena. Sinner in two sets, or Medvedev in five.