Sabalenka vs. Zheng — Who will win the Australian Open women’s title?،
Can defending champion Aryna Sabalenka win her second Grand Slam title on Saturday? Or will first-time major finalist Zheng Qinwen pull off the ultimate upset?
Our experts make their predictions for Saturday's Australian Open women's final (3:30 a.m. ET; ESPN and ESPN+).
Pam Shriver: Sabalenka will win because her power play and overall confidence have never been at a higher level. She has won 13 consecutive matches at Melbourne Park, including winning last year's final against Elena Rybakina in one of the best women's major finals ever contested. She has just avenged her defeat at the US Open against Coco Gauff with a spectacular final push in the semi-final. Sabalenka's serve in two years went from an embarrassing serve, with one of the worst serves ever, to one of the best serves in women's tennis.
Bill Connelly: Until she faces a real challenge, all she has to do is play her game. She has won 20 of 22 sets in 2024. She holds serve more than ever, with more aces, fewer double faults and more first serves. far more than ever and winning more than 50% of the return points. She was untouchable apart from a miss in the final against Elena Rybakina in Brisbane. It's up to Zheng to prove that she can reach this ridiculously high level; until then, Sabalenka has nothing to change.
D'Arcy Maine: Exactly what she did all fortnight. Sabalenka had an incredible run to the final, dominating her opponents with her explosive power and remaining aggressive until the last point was won. She has yet to drop a set. After her semifinal victory, Sabalenka admitted she played “a little bit of passive tennis” during her US Open final defeat in September and said she took the pressure off Gauff.
But in her rematch against Gauff on Thursday, Sabalenka was careful not to make the same mistakes. Even after taking a 5-2 lead in the first set, Sabalenka kept her composure and won the set on tiebreak. This change in mentality – and continuing to play your game – could make the difference on Saturday. Now playing in her third major final and her second in Melbourne, Sabalenka knows exactly what she needs to do to win when the stakes are highest. With experience on her side, she said she would be able to treat it like “just another match.” If his first six matches in Melbourne are any indication, this strategy should work very well.
Jake Michaels: It's simple: keep playing aggressive, confident tennis. Sabalenka was undoubtedly the best player of this tournament. She has yet to lose a set en route to the final and, aside from a brief scare against Gauff in the semifinals, she hasn't really looked close to losing one. Sabalenka hits the ball cleanly and achieves a higher winning percentage per game than anyone who made it past the second round. What's even scarier? The world number 2 is making fewer mistakes than in last year's title run at Melbourne Park.
Matt Walsh: The others really covered all the bases here – Sabalenka's ground power game has been her biggest weapon in this tournament, and a big reason why she hasn't lost a set so far. His semi-final against Gauff showed there was room for improvement; some of her unforced errors were sloppy (28 to 13 in her quarterfinal victory, for example), and she gave up a 5-2 lead in the first to allow Gauff to get back into the contest. But generally speaking, she's on track to return there consecutively.
What can Zheng do to defeat Sabalenka?
Shriver: Zheng needs to play a complete match at his highest level to beat Sabalenka. Although it's not easy to achieve this in your first grand final, it can be done and has been done. Even though Sabalenka is considered the best power player in women's soccer today, she has suffered huge collapses in the latter stages of major tournaments in recent years, including a few since her victory at the Open d Australia last year.
Zheng, while focusing on his own power play, must keep in mind that Sabalenka has terrible memories of trying to close out major matches from winning positions. Zheng's coach Pere Riba reportedly learned a lot from helping coach Gauff win the US Open championship; Gauff defeated Sabalenka after losing the first set. Zheng must take inspiration from Riba and even his meeting with Li Na here in Melbourne, who won this championship 10 years ago.
Connelly: Zheng has done a good job of improving his game when necessary during his short career. She beat Iga Swiatek three times in five matches, and although her path to the final in Melbourne was fairly easy, she still won two of her last three against top 10 opponents after losing nine of her first 13 . has set a ridiculously high standard lately, but Zheng's is also rising rapidly.
We'll be able to tell pretty quickly if this is going to be a match. In her last two losses to top-10 opponents — Rybakina in Beijing in October, Swiatek in the United Cup this month — she double-faulted 16 percent of the time and got blown out. She failed to land her first serve and couldn't do any damage with her second. And in her only match against Sabalenka, the story was similar: she only hit 25% of her first serves in a 1-6 first set and never had a chance. You won't have many break opportunities against Sabalenka, so you have to hold your serve yourself. If Zheng serves well early, she might have a chance.
Maine: Well, let's start with the obvious: it will be difficult. Zheng didn't really have the toughest path to the final to set her up for Sabalenka. She hasn't faced any top seeds and hasn't played anyone currently ranked in the top 50. In fact, her opponent's average ranking in Melbourne through her first six matches was 81.
But it wasn't his fault. And throughout her journey, her impressive serve, dominant forehand and nerves of steel were on display, even when she arrived in uncharted territory at a major tournament. Dayana Yastremska, who Zheng beat in the semifinals, seemed to think this combination would be enough to defeat Sabalenka. “If she is able to remain emotionally stable and if she is able to maintain her level as she [did] today, quite well in important moments, she can win and, I will say, [win] pretty easy,” Yastremska said Thursday. Why not, right?
Michaels: It was a magical run Zheng had in Melbourne, but if she wants to win the trophy on Saturday, she needs to deliver more first serves. Only three players in this tournament won a higher percentage of points than Zheng on their first serve. The problem? She ranks 115th out of 128 for first serves made, and in no match this fortnight has she reached the 60% mark. Zheng cannot afford to offer many second balls to Sabalenka, perhaps the most aggressive player on the tour.
Walsh: That’s a great question – I think it will be difficult but not impossible. She has the right mentality to be a Grand Slam champion, but Sabalenka has the experience. I'm sure Zheng will look at Sabalenka's first set of the semi-final and see that there are opportunities to go for it; Sabalenka led Gauff 5-2 in the first and only ended up winning the set in a tiebreak. If Zheng can continue to serve well, stay focused and pounce on Sabalenka's potential losses, it could be enough to see her win the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup.
Who will win?
Shriver: Sabalenka is ready to win the No. 2 major thanks to her experience and powerful game.
Rennae Stubbs: Sabalenka will win. I think she now has the experience and knowledge to handle this moment, especially when she has done it before here in Melbourne. Her final match against Zheng will also help her know she can win.
Connelly: Zheng's recent rise is similar to what we saw from Gauff before the US Open final against Sabalenka. She has won 17 of her last 19 matches, since the one against Rybakina in Beijing. And even against an easy draw at the Australian Open, she was above all up to the task. But this bar may be too high. Zheng will have to serve a lot and steal every break point she can create. That's probably too much to expect. Sabalenka is too good right now and she will probably win her second straight AO crown.
Maine: Sabalenka has been focused on defending her title throughout the tournament, and it's hard to see anyone – especially someone in her first major final – stopping her. Sabalenka won their only previous meeting in the 2023 US Open quarterfinals 6-1, 6-4, and while this match should certainly be more competitive, the end result will be the same. Sabalenka will win her second Australian Open title on Saturday.
Michaels: Sabalenka. She has done it before and will do it again. No other player, including Zheng, has been in the same stratosphere as Sabalenka this tournament. She's well-rested and focused, and she knows exactly what it takes to lift the trophy in Melbourne.
Walsh: Sabalenka. The experience, the form, the fact that she enjoys her tennis and her time in Melbourne – she is the favorite for good reason.
