NFL playoff game picks, guide: Chiefs-Ravens, Lions-49ers

The NFL Playoffs conference championship round schedule for the 2024 season features two excellent matchups, and we're breaking down what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys and a bold prediction for every game.

Plus, ESPN Stats & Information provides an important-to-know stat and betting nugget for every contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) gets into the numbers with a game projection. Analytics Editor Seth Walder picks the biggest factor X of each match, Matt Bowen identifies a key match planning match to watch in both games, and Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the refereeing. Finally, Walder and Eric Moody give us the final scores for both games. Everything you want to know is here in one place to help you prepare for an exciting weekend of NFL playoff football.

Let's get into the full list of conference championships, including Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy vs. Jared Goff.

Access a match:
KC-BAL | DET-SF

3 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BAL-3.5 (44.5)

What to watch out for: This game marks the first playoff meeting between Mahomes and Jackson. In the regular season, Mahomes is 3-1 against Jackson, which is the most wins of any starting quarterback against Jackson (regular season and playoffs). In their last meeting in 2021, Jackson beat Mahomes and the Chiefs by rushing for 107 yards and scoring three touchdowns, including turning over in the end zone for the winning score. — Jamison Hensley

Bold prediction: The Ravens and Chiefs will combine for at least 45 points. These were the top two teams in the regular season in defensive scoring, with Baltimore leading the way with 16.5 points allowed per game and Kansas City close behind with 17.3. But Jackson and Mahomes will be too good to stop, and each team will reach 20 points. –Adam Teicher

Stat to know: Steve Spagnuolo has been the Chiefs' defensive coordinator since 2019. During that span, no team has allowed more rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks (26) in the regular season than the Chiefs.

Matching factor Mahomes' scrambling ability. The Chiefs have struggled in the passing game throughout the season, and it will only get tougher against Baltimore, who has allowed the second-lowest open score to opposing receivers (receiver tracking metrics). 'ESPN) and recorded the most sacks in the league. (60). Mahomes is a very effective jammer and will need to generate production with his legs on Sunday. –Walder

Game Plan Key: The Kansas City defense loves to use man coverage in the red zone, especially inside their own 10-yard line. Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken should have some answers on that, with Jackson's receivers running crossers and delaying their releases. The Ravens were eighth in red zone efficiency this season, scoring a touchdown on 61.8 percent of their trips inside the 20. Learn more on ESPN+. –Bowen

Injuries: Chefs | Crows

Officials note: Referee Shawn Smith's regular-season team threw the third-most flags in the NFL this season, an average of 14.8 per game. Smith also made an above-average number of roughness calls. He threw the third-most flags for roughing the passer (eight), and overall his team ranked No. 1 with 25 unnecessary roughing calls. — Seifert

Betting nugget: Mahomes is 3-1 and 2-2 ATS against Jackson. Three of the four games went over the total, with each game totaling at least 51 points. The average of the previous four over/unders was 52.4, none lower than 49.

Moody's choice: Ravens 25, chiefs, 21
Walder's choice: Ravens 26, leaders 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 63.6% (4.6 points on average)

Must-reads of the match: Chiefs head to AFC title game with new identity… Ravens' run to AFC title game against Chiefs fueled by upsets… Thuney unlikely plays against Ravens… Jackson expects 'heavyweight fight' against Mahomes

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How JJ Watt would try to stop Lamar Jackson

JJ Watt explains on “The Pat McAfee Show” how the Chiefs defense should try to slow down Lamar Jackson.

6:30 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: SF-7 (50.5)

What to watch out for: This is a matchup between the established playoff favorite (the 49ers) and the new playoff underdog (the Lions). San Francisco will make its 19th appearance in a conference championship game, an NFL record. Detroit is playing in just its second conference title game of the Super Bowl era and first since the 1991 season.

But this match also has all the makings of a heavyweight fight between two of the most physical teams in the league. How the Niners' run defense — which ranks 25th in rushing yards allowed (128.6) and 28th in yards per carry allowed (4.8) since Week 15 — is holding up against the two-headed offense of the Lions of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will go a long way in determining whether Detroit can pull off the upset. -Nick Wagoner

Bold prediction: Gibbs will rush for a touchdown in his third straight playoff game. Sony Michel, Tim Hightower, Jamal Lewis, William Floyd and Tony Dorsett are the only NFL rookies with touchdowns in three playoff games, but Gibbs will become the sixth to accomplish the rare feat. — Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: The 49ers have been the toughest team to play against in the NFL this season, leading the league in yards after contact (95.3 per game). In the NFC Championship Game, the Lions defense will look to put an end to that, as they lead the league in yards after contact allowed per game (63.5).

Matching factor Aidan Hutchinson, Lions rusher. The Lions' pass defense is the weakest unit remaining in the postseason, ranking 30th in EPA by dropback on the season. Hutchinson is someone who can change that in a flash, and he's been a different player in the playoffs with a 29% win rate, more than double his regular season number. He also has 8.0 sacks in his last four games. Detroit, the underdog, needs something special – a strip-sack, perhaps? — from Hutchinson to get this game back on track. –Walder

Game Plan Key: Detroit needs to move Purdy out of the schedule under pressure. Including the playoffs, Detroit posted a 28.3% blitz rate on first and second downs, which ranks in the top 10. The Lions simply can't let Purdy throw the pace or allow the coach Kyle Shanahan to control the tempo. Learn more about ESPN+. –Bowen

Injuries: Lions | 49ers

Officials note: Referee Clete Blakeman's regular-season team took the NFL's emphasis on offensive offside penalties to heart, throwing a league-high five such flags. He was ranked second in the NFL in flags (53) related to defensive pass coverage: illegal contact, defensive pass interference and defensive holding. — Seifert

Betting nugget: The Lions are 13-6 ATS this season, second-best behind the Raiders (12-5). Overs are 12-7 in Lions matches. The 49ers are 9-9 ATS this season with 10-8 overs.

Moody's choice: Lions 31, 49ers 28
Walder's choice: 49ers 34, Lions 24
FPI prediction: SF, 74.1% (average of 8.5 points)

Must-reads of the match: Lions turn attention to 49ers after ousting Bucs in playoffs… Purdy on playoff struggles: 'It's a new game'… Campbell links winless 2008 Lions to success in the 2023 team…Samuel, Williams provide leadership to 49ers