Why has the Premier League transfer window been so quiet?

Just over a year ago, Premier League clubs overspent and took advantage of the January 2023 transfer window (and, crucially, the breathing room after the World Cup in winter in Qatar) to rack up record fees, as more than £800 million was spent. spent.

Chelsea's acquisitions of midfielder Enzo Fernández (£106.8m) and striker Mykhailo Mudryk (£62m, rising to £89m) were the biggest deals as they spent around £300m alone, but almost every club got involved: Arsenal (£55m), Liverpool (£35m), Newcastle United (£40m) and Aston Villa (£25m) sensed an opportunity and seized it, while relegation-threatened Southampton (£55m) and Leeds United (£35m) also threw money at solve their problems. vain hope of improvement (which didn't work either.)

12 months later, the situation could hardly be more different. Premier League clubs have so far spent around £50m, with Tottenham's £20m move for Genovese defender Radu Dragușin accounting for around half that figure, and 11 out of 20 clubs have not received no receipts. So why is the market so dry?

– Stream on ESPN+: LaLiga, Bundesliga, more (US)

Clubs are afraid of FFP and PSR

FFP (financial fair play) has long been an issue for clubs, forcing everyone involved in UEFA competitions to spend a little more wisely than they might like. The Premier League now has a new watchdog: the PSR (Profit and Sustainability Rules). This requires clubs to lose no more than £105 million over a three-year period. This is not a new initiative, but with the heavy losses suffered during the COVID-19 period, the rules have been temporarily relaxed, so that they have somewhat taken a back seat.

But we are now clearly out of that period and the first two clubs have been charged with infringements: Everton (twice, including a 10-point deduction) and Nottingham Forest. The other 18 Premier League teams no doubt decided to check and recheck their financial reports after seeing this news, and if they were toying with the idea of ​​an additional signing, they may have decided to err on the side of caution. After all, a points deduction can be absolutely devastating.

So, with clubs tightening the purse strings, the usual level of cash is not flowing into the sport. The knock-on effect of this – whether in England's lower leagues or across Europe – is that clubs aren't making big moves. Indeed, COVID-19 has hit clubs outside the Premier League even harder, to the point where they really need Premier League money to make transfers.

The hunter is now the hunted

Not only are Premier League clubs barely spending on arrivals, but some are actually putting off interest in their own players.

An example of this dynamic is Newcastle United, the richest club in the world, owned by the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, who, despite a growing injury crisis and Sandro Tonali's 10-month ban from playing, doesn't seem to have the flexibility to achieve anything. incoming players – not even Kalvin Phillips on loan – and are battling to keep midfielder Bruno Guimarães and full-back Kieran Trippier.

It's a very different scenario to two years ago, when they spent just under £100m on five players. And it shows how different things are right now: clubs across the continent are sensing an opportunity to raid the Premier League, rather than the other way around.

The Saudi project failed

Perhaps all these problems would have been resolved if the Saudi Pro League (SPL) had continued its aggressive recruitment efforts, which would have provided more pocket money for European clubs. But, so far, Saudi Arabia's most notable acquisition this month has been Marseille left-back Renan Lodi, who cost Al Hilal a fairly reasonable £20m.

SPL clubs have not reignited the £150m race to sign Liverpool striker Mohamed Salah, set their sights on another superstar of the game like Kevin De Bruyne, or done much of anything. In fact, they've been more concerned with holding on to some of last summer's more high-profile acquisitions.

England midfielder Jordan Henderson's extremely public turnaround was completed when he signed for Ajax from Al Ettifaq last week, with Al Nassr defender Aymeric Laporte publicly saying many players were “dissatisfied” with working conditions and broken promises, while Ballon 2022 Gold winner Karim Benzema's tenuous relationship with Al Ittihad led him to train individually and apply for a loan this month.

These were huge signings for the Saudi league last summer, but the PR landscape has now changed. Perhaps developments like this have made the move to Saudi Arabia more difficult for players this winter, or perhaps Saudi Pro League director of football Michael Emenalo is simply biding his time. Regardless, the lack of transfers to the SPL has significantly reduced the amount of January transfer activity we've seen so far.

play

Will Jadon Sancho be a success at Dortmund?

Jan Aage Fjortoft discusses the success of Jadon Sancho's reunion with Borussia Dortmund.

Loans dominate

If nothing else, the January transfer window has always served one of its classic purposes: offering beleaguered players a chance to reset. The transfer window before a European Championship and Copa América often sparks these kinds of moves, and 2024 has paid off to some extent.

Jadon Sancho (Borussia Dortmund) and Donny van de Beek (Eintracht Frankfurt) escaped the torments of Manchester United, while Phillips from Manchester City (West Ham), Fabio Carvalho from Liverpool (Hull City), Eric Dier from Tottenham (Bayern Munich ) and Ian Maatsen from Chelsea (Dortmund) will finally play football.

Tottenham's loan move for Timo Werner from RB Leipzig was interesting as the German striker looks to revive his career, and players such as Emil Forsberg (New York Red Bulls) and Ivan Perisic (Hajduk Split) have called it quits. legendary careers at the highest level. But while it's comforting to see, none of that will really get the transfer juices flowing; so far it's been low-cost products, loans and free transfers that don't really shake things up.

The only truly interesting permanent deals to date have been Tottenham's move for Dragușin, Brighton's capture of Boca Juniors left-back Valentín Barco for £8 million, and the club's USMNT goalkeeper , Zak Steffen, heading to Colorado Rapids. Even the moves of some of the world's best young talents – Man City's £12.5m signing of 18-year-old winger Claudio Echeverri from River Plate and Paris Saint's €20m deal -Germain for midfielder Gabriel Moscardo from Corinthians – saw them immediately. loaned.

Time will tell if the final week of the January window heats up, and the best hope for that is that a top Premier League team panics and decides to make a move on deadline day. But it's probably safe to say there won't be a record transfer this time around.