Australian Open: Novak Djokovic vs. Taylor Fritz — Can Fritz find a way to win?

MELBOURNE, Australia — After Novak Djokovic demolished Adrian Mannarino in the fourth round of the Australian Open, on-court interviewer Jim Courier asked the world No. 1 to share some early thoughts on his upcoming match.

At that point, it was unclear who Djokovic's quarterfinal opponent would be, as 12th-seeded Taylor Fritz and last year's finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas were busy battling it out over a few land.

“Stefanos and I played the final here last year. He has been in the top 5 and top 10 for many years now. Very experienced to play on a big stage. He has the complete game. A great player, without no doubt,” Djokovic said. “On the other hand, you have Fritz. Let's see.”

The superlatives flowed freely for Tsitsipas and spared for Fritz. Was this simply a sign of confidence from the 24-time major champion? Probably.

An hour later, Fritz confirmed his place in the round of 16 after eliminating the Greek star in four sets.

“If I beat someone eight times in a row, I'd be pretty confident playing them too. I have no complaints. [Djokovic] for this,” Fritz said. “It was one-sided with Novak. I feel like he played me pretty much the same way every time.”

But is this really a sure victory for the reigning Australian Open champion? We take a look.

Why Novak Djokovic will win

Where to start ? Djokovic hasn't lost at the Australian Open in over six years, he holds a career record of 93-8 at the tournament and, oh yeah, he's hoisted the trophy a record 10 times. The world number 1 has also feasted on the Americans at major tournaments, losing only three times in 38 matches.

There is also extra motivation for him this fortnight. Djokovic is looking for another slice of tennis history, something that could end the GOAT debate once and for all. An 11th triumph for Djokovic in Melbourne would place him first in major singles titles (25), breaking his current tie with Australian Margaret Court.

But why should Djokovic want this specific match?

Fritz has never beaten Djokovic. He faced it eight times, and eight times he failed. Djokovic has also won the last 12 tennis sets against Fritz, dating back to their meeting at this same tournament in 2021.

In their last match, at last year's US Open, Djokovic was in control from start to finish. He dictated the game, neutralized Fritz's weapons and won a comfortable 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 victory.

Don't overlook the back-to-the-wall factor, either. It's fair to say that Djokovic was only just progressing through the early rounds of this year's tournament, but since that back-and-forth with an unruly spectator during his second-round match, he has looked awfully dominant. He crushed Mannarino in his last outing, dropping only three games in a rout.

“Today was the best day, in terms of tennis, how I felt on the court,” Djokovic said after his fourth-round victory. I'm really excited to go into the second week. I'm looking forward to the battles because obviously the opponents are higher ranked. There are no easy matches, there's no doubt about that.”

Djokovic simply thrives in these circumstances, and the encounter with this unruly fan could well have reignited his game.

Why Taylor Fritz will win

Could Sunday's victory over Tsitsipas have opened a new level of confidence for Fritz, the only American still on the court? Prior to this competition, he was 0-10 in Slam matches against top-10 ranked opponents. He has finally overcome this obstacle, and the monkey may no longer be on his back.

Even though Djokovic was successful in his fourth round match against Mannarino, he was not completely invincible in this tournament. In fact, for the first time since 2018, he lost sets in both of his opening matches of a Grand Slam campaign. The Serbian star also confirmed he was battling a virus this fortnight in Melbourne, and it doesn't appear he has completely overcome it.

Much of this will be more like 'why Djokovic might lose' than 'why Fritz will win', but the world number 12 will need every little advantage he can get if he wants to pull off an upset.

As mentioned, Fritz was easily beaten in his last match against Djokovic in that same quarterfinal at Flushing Meadows, but it wasn't like he didn't create opportunities for himself. Fritz created 12 break chances. The problem? He only converted two.

Fritz also struggled with his serve that day. Only 55% of his first serves were hit in play, which should be an area of ​​considerable improvement this time around. In his four matches in Melbourne, Fritz is hitting 66% of his first serves and has yet to drop below 64% in any match.

“I think I have a lot more level to bring than against him before,” Fritz said. “I think the conditions here are definitely better than at the US Open.”

Fritz also enjoys the rare advantage of facing Djokovic in the second week of a major tournament and being the fresher player. In four matches, Djokovic has spent 11 hours and 24 minutes on court, while Fritz has 10 hours and 55 minutes. This may not seem like much, but then again, any slight advantage is something against the best player on the planet.

This is going to be a monumental challenge for Fritz, but he's certainly in good shape. Perhaps the shape of his life.

“I played very well from start to finish,” Fritz said after his victory against Tsitsipas. “I'm super happy with how I finished it. The last three plays of the match, I really, really turned it on, almost like I was in a trance and everything. I felt like I knew exactly what shot to hit, the “right decision to make on every ball. It’s been a while since I’ve had that feeling, so it gives me a lot of confidence.”

What's going to happen ?

It's hard to see Fritz finally turning things around against Djokovic in the tournament that Djokovic has simply owned throughout his career. Expect a close first two sets before Djokovic runs away with the match in the third.