NFL playoffs: NFC, AFC championship preview, schedule, odds،
All four divisional round games are in the books as the NFL playoffs continue to unfold and next weekend's conference championship games are set. In the NFC Championship Game, the Lions will face the 49ers in the San Francisco Bay Area for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. On the other side of the bracket, the Ravens will host the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
To prepare you for both games, Stephen Holder selected the most important event to watch in both matchups, and Seth Walder explored how all four teams can win to reach Super Bowl LVIII. Game lines are done via ESPN BET.
Access a match:
Crow Chiefs | Lions-49ers
AFC Championship Game
When: Sunday, January 28 at 3 p.m. ET (CBS)
Opening line: BAL-3 (44.5)
What there is to know: The ideal ingredients for winning the playoffs appear to be an elite quarterback and an elite defense. That brings us to the Ravens, the fourth team since the 1970 merger to have a first-team All-Pro quarterback and the No. 1 defense in the NFL. The previous three teams – the 1972 Dolphins, 1978 Steelers and 1996 Packers – all won the Super Bowl.
It's the combination of factors that work in the Ravens' favor next Sunday. With quarterback Lamar Jackson coming off a historic performance against the Texans (two rushing touchdowns and two touchdown passes) and the Ravens defense limiting Houston to its second-lowest yardage total of the season (213) , this seems like a really complete team.
But don't expect the Chiefs to be the least bit fazed by all this after defeating the Bills on the road in another memorable clash between the budding rivals. After getting an opening quarterback matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen on Sunday, the AFC playoffs will serve up another one in the championship game, when Mahomes and the Chiefs visit Jackson and the Ravens.
The Chiefs are 3-2 in AFC title games with Mahomes under center. But there is one key difference this season: The Chiefs have arguably the best defense of the Mahomes era. They finished the season second in defensive rating and yards allowed. No Kansas City team has been higher than seventh in either metric during Mahomes' tenure. — Holder
Why the Ravens will win: Both sides of the ball are on fire for Baltimore. Let's start with the defense, where the Ravens didn't allow a single offensive touchdown in the divisional round against the Texans. The Ravens defense didn't blink against Houston like the Browns did in the wild-card round, and the unit was dominant, especially against the run, where Baltimore allowed a negative 0 EPA .29 per game. This is nothing new for the Ravens defense, which now ranks first in EPA per game on the season, including the playoffs.
Despite the Chiefs name, the reality of this game is that Baltimore's defense was much better than Kansas City's offense. The Chiefs were ranked 10th in EPA per game on Sunday.
Offensively, the Ravens are on almost as strong a run. They were good all season and they took it up a notch in the playoffs. Jackson posted a 94 QBR against Houston, and on his runs or reverses, the Ravens racked up 0.41 EPA per play. In other words, every five plays Jackson added two full points to the margin expected score from the Ravens. The Chiefs' defense will provide more resistance than Houston's, but Kansas City ranked 11th in EPA per play allowed against opposing QB runs or runs. And overall, the Chiefs are simply weaker against the run, ranking 26th in EPA per opponent designed carry. This could be another big day for Jackson. –Walder
Why the Chiefs will win: It's still Mahomes with the best defense he's ever had. The Chiefs still have Andy Reid calling the plays, an outstanding receiver in Rashee Rice and an offensive line that protects Mahomes. And tight end Travis Kelce just had two touchdowns in the divisional round.
12:30 a.m.
Mahomes-Kelce TD connection sets NFL playoff record
Patrick Mahomes connects with Travis Kelce again for a Chiefs touchdown, giving them a playoff record 16 touchdowns as a QB-receiver duo.
Despite everything that has gone wrong this season – including a league-worst 5.7% receiver drop rate entering Sunday and their inability to support Mahomes and the offense at an elite level – everything the above means the Chiefs have a chance to score a lot of points in the AFC Championship Game. Plus, while the Ravens led the league in sacks during the regular season, Mahomes simply refuses to take them. His 3.9% sack rate and 13.8% pressure sack rate rank second in the NFL behind Allen.
And even though Buffalo moved the ball at will at times against the Chiefs, the long-term view for the defense is that it remains one of the best groups in the league, ranking fourth in EPA per play allowed. In the end, Kansas City kept the Bills out of the end zone as well.
The Chiefs are underdogs and rightfully so, but they just beat Baltimore's biggest challenger in the AFC. They can also beat the Ravens themselves. –Walder
NFC Championship Game
When: Sunday, January 28 at 6:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
Opening line: SF-7 (51.5)
What there is to know: The 49ers haven't won a Super Bowl since 1994. To put that into perspective, quarterback Steve Young threw three touchdown passes to Jerry Rice in that Super Bowl XXIX victory over the Chargers. Still, the Niners will be making their seventh appearance in the NFC Championship Game since 2011. San Francisco is 2-4 in those games, including three under coach Kyle Shanahan since 2019. Shanahan has a chance to overtake Bill Walsh for the best playoff winning percentage in club history with a victory against Detroit.
As for quarterback Brock Purdy, he's trying to build his own legacy, and winning this game would go a long way after being knocked out of the conference title game with an elbow injury last season. But the Lions are also trying to rewrite the history books. By winning two playoff games for the first time since 1957, they have already accomplished something most Lions fans have never seen personally. And the Lions are doing it with an explosive offense that should test the 49ers' elite defense.
One of the best stories of this NFL season is quarterback Jared Goff, orchestrating it all. After powering the Lions with 287 passing yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's win over Tampa Bay, the Rams have a chance to make their second Super Bowl. If he takes the Lions to Las Vegas, they might just build a statue of him in the Motor City. — Holder
Why the 49ers will win: Yes, Purdy's performance in the divisional round against the Packers — when he posted a negative 6% completion percentage compared to expectations, according to NFL Next Gen Stats — raised concerns. But the best way to judge a team is to take the long view, and when we do that, the 49ers still look very threatening.
And let's think about the match here. The 49ers have the most efficient passing offense in football. What is the Lions' biggest weakness? Defend the pass. Entering Sunday, the Lions ranked 30th in EPA allowed per opposing dropback. San Francisco's plethora of offensive playmakers will be a nightmare for Detroit, and while the Lions' offense is equally effective, they don't have the same firepower.
Additionally, the 49ers have plenty of stars on defense to counter. Edge rusher Nick Bosa and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave lead a pass rush that can put pressure on the quarterback despite blitzing just 20 percent of the time (sixth lowest), and cornerback Charvarius Ward and Linebacker Fred Warner should be able to at least mitigate Detroit's Amon. -Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. –Walder
0:34
Amon-Ra St. Brown brings it back for a Lions TD
Jared Goff throws one into the end zone to Amon-Ra St. Brown to extend the Lions' lead.
Why the Lions will win: The Lions have two major factors working in their favor in the NFC Championship Game. First up, a shaky Purdy. Up until his win against the Packers, Purdy looked very fallible. He's run a super-efficient offense all season, but if he's shaken, it gives Detroit hope.
Second, one thing you can do against the 49ers is run against them. This plays directly into the Lions' strength, as they rushed for 114 yards against Tampa Bay. They tend to run a lot, with the 11th highest rushing rate relative to expectations, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and yet they are the league's sixth-most efficient running team in terms of EPA per game, thanks to solid play from David Montgomery. and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Finally, the 49ers are one of the most effective pass defenses due to their ability to defend deep throws, ranking third in EPA per play allowed on attempts of 20 or more air yards. But it's a skill wasted against Detroit, which throws deep just 7 percent of the time, the lowest rate in the NFL. The Lions will need the ball to rebound on several occasions, but they certainly have hope. –Walder
