Lions drawing bets as favorite vs. Bucs, for Super Bowl run،
The Detroit Lions have had a miserable history in the playoffs. But these are not your father's Lions, and it shows in the betting markets.
According to ESPN Stats & Information, since Nevada legalized sports betting in 1949, Detroit's 6.5-point consensus favorite status for Sunday's game against Tampa Bay is the highest ever in a postseason. He topped the Lions as a 4-point favorite against the Dallas Cowboys in the 1970 divisional round, a game Detroit would lose 5-0.
Although their favorite 6.5 point role is behind Baltimore and San Francisco, each giving up 9.5 points in their divisional round matchups, it has been a long time coming for the Lions.
“They haven't been favorites in the playoffs, that's for sure, but they haven't been in the playoffs much,” Johnny Avello, DraftKings' director of racing and sports operations, told ESPN. “The team just didn’t have a lot of chances.”
This is the first time in franchise history that the Lions have hosted two playoff games in a single playoff series, and if they win, it will be the first time since 1957 that they have won multiple playoff games. They are one of four NFL franchises to never appear in a Super Bowl, along with Houston, which eliminated Cleveland, and Jacksonville, which missed the playoffs after going 1-5.
Like the Browns in the wild-card round, the Lions are the darlings of public betting as fans cheer for the team to finally find success in January.
At BetMGM, Lions -6.5 attracted 63% of the bets and 71% of the handle, with the moneyline (-275) returning 47% of the bets and 73% of the handle. At PointsBet, Detroit is taking home 81% of the moneyline winnings, which sportsbooks say is by far the largest of any team this weekend. The action pushed the line to within half a point of the opening consensus of -6.
Michigan State is leading Lions betting action across the country. Caesars reports that Detroit is the most unequal moneyline and is distributed percentage by handle and bet – both in Michigan and nationwide.
At ESPN BET in Michigan, the Lions -6.5 attract 73.36% of bets compared to 49.85% everywhere else; the moneyline saw 84.73% of bets in Michigan, compared to 66.74% in all other states.
Michigan bettors think the Lions can go all the way and are putting their money on it. At the Michigan DraftKings, since Sunday, Detroit has been the most heavily bet on team to win the Super Bowl with five times as many bets and four times as many as any other team; The Lions are the team most heavily bet on to win the NFC at 10 times the handle and three times the odds.
All of this represents a huge liability for the Lions for sports betting.
“The Lions are getting a lot of interest from Michigan bettors,” said Christian Cipollini, BetMGM chief commercial officer. “Detroit playing more games is good for sports betting, but ultimately we need the Lions to lose.”
Caesars assistant chief commercial officer Adam Pullen said that while the Lions' Super Bowl win would be a “small winner” for the book, their conference win would be a “medium handicap.” The same goes for PointsBet, which reports that Detroit is its biggest NFC champion.
One aspect that influences public trust and book deference to the Lions is the enormous presence of the coaches on the field. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Detroit is 35-17 ATS in three seasons under Dan Campbell, the best record in the NFL over that span. Campbell is 39-25 ATS in his career – including 12 games as interim coach of the Miami Dolphins in 2015 – which is the best mark of any coach since the 1970 merger with at least three seasons.
“They operate as a collective, not as individuals, and I think that suits them and the coach,” Pullen said. “The coach is the biggest star on the team. … That works, I think, to their advantage.”
