First look: Biggest questions, early bets for McGregor-Chandler،
Conor McGregor started the year by saying in an article on X that he would fight Michael Chandler at 185 pounds during International Fight Week on June 29. Now, the fight hasn't been confirmed by the UFC, but there's still a lot to say on this fascinating topic. matchup — should it take place.
ESPN asked Dominick Cruz, Megan Anderson and Din Thomas what they thought of the potential matchup and betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn explain their early best bets.
What is your biggest question – aside from whether the fight will happen – surrounding Chandler vs. McGregor?
Cruz: In what weight category will this fight take place? Right now, we don't know anything about McGregor because he's been out of action for so long. When a fighter is laid off for an extended period of time, there are so many unknowns and, in this case, each of them adds intrigue to this match. What is the timetable for this fight? When will it take place? And many more, but the biggest question is what weight class will they fight in?
There's no way of knowing what weight McGregor wants to fight at. If he decides he doesn't want to cut weight and thinks it will benefit him to fight Chandler at 185 pounds, he can do that. Or, conversely, if he thinks it will hurt Chandler to have to lose weight and gain weight, then McGregor will do it. And McGregor is going to choose that at the moment that seems most favorable to him, because he has the power to do it.
Thomas: When will McGregor sign the fight contract? McGregor is going to play mind games as long as possible to gain an advantage over Chandler. He probably won't reveal the conditions of the fight until he feels Chandler is unprepared.
Anderson: How much longer will McGregor's star power rule the UFC? His name value is what keeps him at the top of the UFC. Given his lack of action (and wins) over the past five years, it's clear that this is all driven strictly by the strength of his brand. Will this still be the case if you don't win this fight?
What is a victory for Conor McGregor? And a loss?
Anderson: Without a doubt, McGregor needs a win here more than Chandler does. It's hard to consider yourself the best in the world when you don't have a win over someone the public would consider one of the best in the world in recent memory. McGregor's last big victory came in a title fight against Eddie Alvarez in 2016. Since then, his only victory has been against Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone.
A McGregor victory, at least for himself and his fans, legitimizes the idea that he can still compete with the sport's best.
Cruz: Conor can't lose. We are boxers and he has already won all the prizes. So he has already won. Nobody loses this fight. It's a win-win. Normally a guy loses the fight and loses the purse – that’s how this sport goes. But if you lose the fight and don't lose the purse, what have you really lost?
What does a victory mean to Michael Chandler? And a loss?
Anderson: A win doesn't do much for Chandler. Other than what that means on paper and the big payday, it doesn't do anything for him in terms of getting closer to a title shot. Even with a win, Chandler already has losses against most of the guys ranked ahead of him (Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier). If he wants to continue competing, he needs wins, but that's it.
As someone who was actively competing before training McGregor's opposite on the final season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” a loss in this fight would affect his standing in the division, but it wouldn't be as impactful that a defeat would be one for McGregor.
Cruz: A Chandler win will likely retire him. If he wins and doesn't drop out, there will be a lot of people below him in the rankings that will be really tough matchups. On the other hand, as I mentioned earlier, there is nothing negative about this confrontation for either party involved.
Even if he doesn't win the fight, Chandler can't lose this fight. If he loses, whether he gets tested in the first two seconds or makes a decision, he still gets millions of dollars. It's not a loss, it may hurt his pride and ego but that's it.
We cannot consider this a regular fight in the UFC. It's a great fight.
Fill in the blank: Preparing for Chandler-McGregor at International Fight Week will be _____?
Cruz: Dear. I think the UFC is going to invest a lot of money into this. If this fight takes place during International Fight Week, it will be almost three years since McGregor last fought. It's a big problem.
International Fight Week makes sense for McGregor's return because Conor is an international star. The UFC's mission is expansion and having Conor helps expand into the international market. It's the future.
Anderson: Entertaining. When you watch all of Conor's preparation before the fight, it's not always the politically correct way to go, but it's certainly entertaining. And both guys know how to cut a hell of a promo. The hype surrounding this fight will be something fans won't want to miss.
What's your bold prediction for Chandler-McGregor?
Thomas: Don't be surprised if this fight takes place at lightweight. Conor has sought advantages throughout his career: he will wait as long as the UFC allows him before deciding on a weight class. McGregor could let Chandler think the fight will be at 185 pounds for a while, then, with a month to go before the fight, decide he wants to fight at 155 pounds instead.
Cruz: McGregor will take a different approach to getting inside Chandler's head. Often during the preparation for his fights, McGregor may talk trash to affect his opponent, but Chandler plays such a nice guy that talking trash to him can be difficult, even for McGregor. It will be interesting to see how he reacts to Chandler's sympathetic behavior. How do you attack someone who is willing to make fun of themselves?
Anderson: This fight doesn't go the distance. Both fighters are explosive and athletic, but neither of them have good cardio. They are fueling up because they spend a lot of energy doing the things they do well and both have been out of competition for over a year.
These guys are good for a short time, but after having to go two or three rounds you can see them start to wear out.
Best early bets
Parker: Take Chandler to win if you can have him at even or at plus odds. Regardless of weight, if you can get Chandler at even or plus odds, the value is with him. If Chandler wrestles, this skill, along with his power and explosiveness, can make him a nightmare match for McGregor.
Now, don't get me wrong, Chandler is extremely punched and McGregor is known for his precision, but what version of McGregor are we going to see if this fight happens? It has been dormant for some time and despite what some may believe, ring rust is real. And if McGregor actually fights this fight at 185 or even 170 pounds, I think the extra muscle will have a negative impact on his speed. Will McGregor's inactivity catch up with him? Or will he come back and take up the sport again?
Kuhn: Lean McGregor to win. Chandler spends two-thirds of his time in the Octagon standing instead of leveraging his NCAA Division I wrestling base. And while he's standing, his poor defense against head strikes is a huge liability against McGregor's precise long-range game.
At 48%, Chandler's power head attack defense is the worst of any ranked fighter, let alone the highly competitive lightweight division. McGregor's team is smart and they may have chosen Chandler as their opponent for that reason. Although Chandler also likes to swing for the fences, he has taken more knockdowns than he has scored. Extended shot time against McGregor is not favorable if Chandler eats at least half of all headshots.
However, that doesn't mean Chandler is a pushover. We could see him exploit McGregor's wrestling, negating McGregor's best weapons. But nevertheless, the combination of McGregor's precision and power with Chandler's defensive holes creates a trend towards the Irishman's return to the win column.
