Predicting the El Clasico Supercopa final: Barca or Madrid?

Real Madrid face Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup final on Sunday, bringing the competition to a climax The classic its new “final four” format was designed to highlight the shock.

It is the first time since 2020 – when the Super Cup was expanded and moved to Saudi Arabia – that the final will fulfill the tournament's original objective: pitting reigning La Liga champions Barcelona against the Copa del Rey winners. last season, Real Madrid.

It's also a repeat of last year's Super Cup final, where a one-sided match Classic The competition ended with a 3–1 victory for Barça, setting them up for a triumphant second half of the season, which ended with the league title.

– Stream Supercopa on ESPN+: Barca vs. Real Madrid (Sunday, 1:30 p.m. ET)

Real Madrid reached this final with a thrilling 5-3 extra-time win over Atletico Madrid on Wednesday, before Barca qualified with a more subdued 2-0 win over Osasuna a day later.

Now, the two giants face off on Sunday at Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh with the first trophy of the Spanish season at stake.

Why Real Madrid will win

Classics are notoriously unpredictable. Form and circumstances are forgotten when the whistle blows. The result seems almost completely irrelevant to the context.

Additionally, both teams have players good enough to transform a game single-handedly, making what happened before irrelevant. Just look at the recent meetings between these two.

Barcelona were completely and massively dominant when the teams last met on October 28 in La Liga. Until just over an hour into the game, Jude Bellingham turned the game on its head at Montjuic with a breathtaking goal out of nowhere – then a late, dramatic winner – to give Madrid all three points .

Remember the last one Classic in a cup competition: the semi-final return of the Copa del Rey at the Camp Nou in April 2023, which Madrid won at a gallop, 4-0, just as Barça was preparing to win the league title. Or their last Super Cup meeting in Riyadh, three months earlier, when Barça won 3-1.

In other words, every team is more than capable of winning on Sunday, so everything we say should be taken with a grain of salt. However, there are many reasons for Madridistas to be optimistic.

Wednesday's gripping 5-3 win over Atletico – in which Real twice fought back from a goal down, only to emerge victorious in extra time – was further proof that this team doesn't know when it will is beaten. Serial winners like Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Dani Carvajal could write the book on what it takes to lift trophies.

Madrid have not lost since September. They are a well-balanced team who look dangerous in attack and, despite evidence to the contrary in the three goals they conceded against Atleti, are generally solid in defense, conceding 11 goals in 19 La Liga games this season.

Another fierce competitor, Antonio Rüdiger, is in the best form of his time in Madrid. Carvajal was the semi-final MVP. Federico Valverde is having a quietly exceptional season in a more withdrawn midfield role. Then there's Bellingham's scoring threat and personality for big games.

The Madrid team is also reassuring. On Wednesday, coach Carlo Ancelotti was able to call on Kroos, Eduardo Camavinga, Brahim Díaz, Joselu, Dani Ceballos and Arda Güler from the bench to help the team cross the finish line in overtime. Diaz, in particular, has been in electric form in recent weeks, forcing his way into Ancelotti's plans and offering the team something different in attack.

The biggest doubt – and perhaps the team's Achilles heel – comes from the goal. Kepa Arrizabalaga started on Wednesday and was once again unconvincing, displaying a familiar lack of conviction by coming off his line only to fail to deal with Atletico's third goal. It is suspected that Ancelotti now prefers Andriy Lunin and has given Kepa minutes in this month's cup competitions to maintain his confidence.

If repeated, it's a decision that could cost the team dearly, when finals are so often decided by razor-thin margins. –Alex Kirkland

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What does Barcelona need to change to beat Real Madrid?

Luis Garcia reacts to Barcelona's 2-0 win over Osasuna and previews the Spanish Super Cup final against Real Madrid.

Why Barcelona will win

Barcelona coach Xavi Hernández said last season's Super Cup success, complemented by victory over Madrid in the final, gave his players the belief they needed to go on and win La Liga for the first time since 2019. He hopes for a similar “click” in Riyadh on Sunday to appease the criticism that has accompanied Barça in recent months.

This criticism culminated in December when a run of two games without a win saw Barca fall seven points behind La Liga leaders Madrid and Girona. The complaints, however, go beyond just the results and focus on the performances produced even in the event of victory. Before Thursday's 2-0 victory over Osasuna, Barca had not won a match by more than one goal since September 19, a run of 20 matches, and had not kept a clean sheet since December 3 .

Once these sequences are over, Barça, which now has four consecutive victories in all competitions, will get closer to the Classic with some of their confidence restored.

Pedri's return from injury helps. The midfielder came on for the final 30 minutes against Osasuna, coinciding with an improvement in Barca's performance. Xavi said the Spain international added “clarity” to the team's football, while midfielder Frenkie de Jong noted Barca were “more fluid” when he was on the pitch.

The temptation will be to start Pedri on Sunday, although some caution must also be applied given his recent injuries. He has only been able to start eight games this season.

However, Pedri's importance to the system may outweigh any caution, with Xavi highlighting Barca's “DNA and methodology” as the main reasons to believe they can emerge victorious this weekend.

“We must take the ball to Madrid and our DNA must shine more than ever,” he told a press conference on Thursday. “The example is last year's final. Madrid are in better shape than then, but we will try to dominate them and play one-on-one. This is the ideal time for us to show our best football.”

These are qualities that Xavi often preaches, but other attributes led to last year's La Liga title, built on a solid defensive foundation. That has been lost this season, with Barca having already conceded more goals in 19 La Liga matches than in 38 last year, but a return to the bottom four last season brought a clean sheet against Osasuna. With full-back João Cancelo doubtful against Madrid, they could stick to this recipe of Jules Koundé, Ronald Araújo, Andreas Christensen and Alejandro Balde.

A hamstring injury picked up by Raphinha against Osasuna could also lead to Xavi choosing four midfielders, which was the tactic deployed in last season's final. Pedri could return alongside De Jong, Ilkay Gündogan and Sergi Roberto to ensure control in the middle and avoid an end-to-end match that would likely favor Madrid. He would also reserve João Felix and Lamine Yamal for the second half after both players made such a big impact coming off the bench against Osasuna. — Sat Marsden

Final predictions for the Super Cup

Kirkland: Real Madrid 2-1 Barcelona. Bellingham – who else? — will score the winning goal and win his first trophy with the club.

Marsden: Barcelona 3-1 Real Madrid. It's the old cliché, but the form really flies out the window in a Classic, with the least favored team often winning. I think Barca's need for a big win could get them across the finish line on Sunday, just like last year.