Browns favored to win playoff game for 1st time since 1994

The Cleveland Browns are in uncharted territory in the best way possible.

The perennially disappointing NFL franchise is making its second playoff appearance since 2020 after experiencing a 17-season playoff drought from 2003 to 2019; they are one of four teams – along with the Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans – to have never appeared in the Super Bowl.

This produced a shocking, but perhaps not surprising, betting statistic: Through 12 qualifying games, Cleveland has never been a road playoff favorite in the Super Bowl era.

That changes Saturday when the Browns visit NRG Stadium in Houston as 2-point favorites, according to ESPN BET odds. The last time Cleveland was favored in a playoff game in any capacity was in the 1994 wild-card round against the New England Patriots – a game that ended up being Bill's only victory Belichick in the playoffs as Browns head coach.

Sportsbooks aren't looking too much into Cleveland's pitiful past in January.

“For us, history plays no role in creating lines. We focus on the two teams, how they are built and how they play today,” said Johnny Avello, racing director and sports operations from DraftKings, to ESPN.

“The Browns deserve to be the favorite. They have a little higher power ranking, they have a little more experience and their defense is one of the best in the league. What they don't have “Here it's home advantage. If they had played this game at home, they probably would have been favorites with 4 or 5 points.”

Opinions vary as to how broad this line should have been in the circumstances; Bettors at Caesars Sportsbook, for example, made this play between Browns -3 and a pick 'em. Most books opened the line at Cleveland -1.5, but quickly climbed to -3 before stabilizing around -2 or -2.5 across the market.

Clearly, the market is buying into the Browns buyout scenario. According to data compiled by FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM and PointsBet, Cleveland attracts a minimum of 65% of tickets and 66% of handles to cover the spread; at most, he takes 80% of the bets and 84% of the money. Houston is not among the three teams most bet by DraftKings to win, with the Steelers (+400), Rams (+140) and Packers (+275) collecting the most tickets.

Caesars reports a $145,000 bet on the Browns money line at -145 to win $100,000. Additionally, DraftKings and BetMGM both report that Browns-Texans is their most heavily bet game of the weekend so far, with Cleveland being the highest bet team in terms of betting and manipulating both books to some extent ( although it should be noted that this is the first game of the playoffs).

While the state of Ohio is booming in sports betting after legalizing it a little over a year ago, the fervor around the Browns has certainly been widespread in the state, but has also spread to the rest of the country.

“Betting on local teams is higher in Cleveland and other cities across the state,” said Brian Becker, Tipico vice president of marketing, “which means bettors in Cleveland and across the state are Ohio mixes their fandom more in their betting behavior than those in other states.”

“In a way, they’re almost like Team USA,” Avello said. “This is a team that has been embraced. By everyone? No, but by people who support them, who feel sorry for them, no matter what.”

Emotional feelings aside, this may be justified: The Browns have covered six straight games as favorites and gone 4-0 ATS with Joe Flacco under center. Flacco's buyout arc is also gaining momentum in the prop market, as BetMGM reports a league-leading 14% of tickets are going to the veteran to lead the playoffs in passing yards with odds 12 to 1.

“Joe Flacco's resurgence has been a major storyline in the second half of the NFL season and the public expects that to continue, as a Texans win would be good for the team trade,” said a FanDuel trader.

If Cleveland manages to live up to expectations and advance, it could create havoc in the books: As of Sunday, DraftKings has taken more bets on the Browns to win the AFC than any other team.