MLB free agency: Latest on Dylan Cease trade rumors, fits

From day one of the offseason, right-handed starter Dylan Cease has been among the most talked about trade candidates in baseball. League executives expected the Chicago White Sox ace to be on the move, after new Chicago general manager Chris Getz made clear his intention to make significant changes to the team of 102 defeats which he inherited.

But it's January 10 and Cease is still in Chicago.

Many of baseball's other starting pitchers — including Tyler Glasnow, Robbie Ray and Chris Sale — have been traded, and the impending end of Shota Imanaga's free agency could set off another set of dominoes. So, are the White Sox still waiting for the perfect time to deal the top remaining trade candidate — or will the 2022 AL Cy Young finalist stay put?

“It’s constantly evolving in terms of urgency for other clubs,” Getz said in a video conference Tuesday with reporters. “It could be in the offseason, it could be at the deadline, it could be in May. There are so many different factors when you're talking about 29 other clubs.

“In Dylan's case, I don't think there is a club that hasn't expressed some interest in him. All their situations are different.”

Getz spoke generally but never suggested the option of keeping him in Chicago long-term was on the table. That's one reason suitors are lining up, according to league sources.

Cease's trade value is much higher than a quick glance at his 4.58 ERA in 2023 might suggest. At 28 years old, he's just a year away from a dominant 2022 season over from which he posted a 2.20 ERA while striking out 227 batters in 184 innings. Although 2023 didn't go as well for him, he still whiffed 214 batters while throwing 177 innings thanks to a slider that ranks among the most dominant pitches in the game. Even when his stats dipped, his business have remained elite, leading some scouts to believe Cease needs to bounce back. Cease has also proven to be one of the most durable pitchers in MLB, making 97 starts over the past three seasons.

But the most desirable factor for other teams is Cease's contract. He will likely earn around $8 million through arbitration during the 2024 season and will be under team control through 2025, meaning a team acquiring him this winter would get two full seasons at a price below the market.

The contract that makes Cease so attractive to other front offices also tops the list of reasons he's still with the White Sox. With two more opportunities to move him – at the August trade deadline and next offseason – Getz can wait for the right deal. It just hasn't happened yet.

According to rivals who have negotiated with Chicago, Getz has been deliberate and direct in his new role, so there is no reason to expect him to rush what would immediately become his signing as GM of the White Sox. The idea of ​​waiting until July – or later – to move Cease hasn't been discussed directly with teams, but it feels more like it could happen now than in November. Getz's pragmatic negotiating style also provided a clear picture of the type of package needed to make a deal, according to the teams that have engaged in discussions with the White Sox this offseason: multiple high-end prospects (one won't be enough not) and some “fill-ins”.

A potential trade that didn't come to fruition offers a window into what it will take to get Cease. During negotiations and after agreeing to a five-for-one deal for reliever Aaron Bummer, the Braves spoke to the White Sox about Cease, according to league sources. Chicago needs middle infielders and second baseman Vaughn Grissom was on the table. But Getz stuck to his asking price and Atlanta couldn't offer the multiple high-end prospects needed to complete a deal. (The Braves pivoted by acquiring Chris Sale from the Boston Red Sox for Grissom.)

So, which teams could lure Cease away from the White Sox?

The Cincinnati Reds have shown interest this winter — and could again — but they could be nearing the end of their improvements on the mound after the additions of Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagan.

The New York Yankees could use Cease, but they probably won't respond to trade requests; after trading several young players for Juan Soto and losing some depth via the Rule 5 draft, they seem less likely to further weaken their farm system by giving up top prospect Spencer Jones.

The Chicago Cubs are looking for a starter, but a reunion with Cease, who the Cubs traded in 2017, appears unlikely as the Cubs are unwilling to part with their top prospects to do so and instead appear focused on Japanese free agent Shoto Imanaga.

That leaves the Baltimore Orioles as perhaps the most well-known potential landing spot for the five-year veteran. The Orioles haven't bolstered their young rotation this offseason and have both high-end prospects who could pique Getz's interest and the system depth needed to absorb top young players. Even though Jackson Holliday is almost certainly not on the table, a new general manager can dream, right? – The teams could align if corner infielder Coby Mayo can work his way into the deal.

“The Orioles could use Cease more than the White Sox right now,” said a front office executive not associated with either team. “Getz will probably wait as long as he can. Even until spring training.”

Of course, that could change once the remaining free agents start coming off the board. The game of musical chairs is about to resume. If a team finds itself without a seat, Getz might just get his high return.

“There’s a lot that goes into any business transaction,” Getz said. “There's a lot of talking, preparing, researching and obviously getting to the finish line. Going into the offseason, we'll continue to do that and find ways to improve our club.”