Ja Morant out for season – What the star guard’s shoulder surgery means for Memphis and NBA trade deadline

Monday's announcement that Memphis Grizzlies superstar Ja Morant will undergo season-ending surgery on his right shoulder ends a turbulent period for one of the NBA's brightest young stars.

The 24-year-old entered the 2023-24 season with a 25-game suspension from the NBA for brandishing a gun on social media. (Morant served an eight-game NBA suspension last season for a similar infraction.)

Morant returned to the Grizzlies on December 19, joining a 6-19 team that was already missing center Steven Adams (knee) and Brandon Clarke (Achilles). Morant provided an instant boost to the team, leading Memphis to six wins in the nine games he played and averaging 25.1 points and 8.1 assists over that span.

The injury essentially means Morant can't accomplish what was already going to be an uphill battle this season: getting the Grizzlies out of a steep hole — partly of his own making — and getting them into the playoffs or play-in tournament .

Such a feat would have helped Morant reestablish his place as one of the future faces of the NBA – an even more important position once LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers and Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors retire in the coming years .

Morant's absence not only eliminates a potential heroic effort to lift a struggling, short-handed team, but ensures that Memphis will find itself in the lottery after consecutive seasons finishing as the conference's No. 2 seed West.

Overall, the injury all but guarantees that this will be a lost season for Morant and the Grizzlies, with a reach that could extend beyond Memphis, impacting the weeks leading up to the NBA trade deadline on the 8th. February and free agency this summer.

-Baxter Holmes

The upside for Memphis: Adding a lottery pick to an elite young roster

From the Grizzlies' perspective, the timing of this injury could have been a lot worse. Although Memphis' 6-3 record in Morant's nine games this season offered hope of a play-in tournament appearance, it flattered the way the Grizzlies fared with him in the alignment.

Given that Morant's brief stint included as many double-digit losses as wins (two each, including a 31-point drubbing by the Sacramento Kings at home), Memphis actually played around .500 with Morant available. It's unlikely that would have been enough for a team that is still 4½ games out of the 10th and final play-in spot in the West, needing to leapfrog three teams in the standings to get there.

Given that Morant's absence during his suspension was exacerbated by the injuries that plagued the rest of the team in the first two months of the season, it's possible that Memphis is better than its 7-20 record (.259) this season without him. Still, the Grizzlies are currently sixth in the lottery standings and are unlikely to lag behind the teams currently boasting better records, all of whom have won at least 40% of their games thus far.

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What does the future look like for the Grizzlies with Ja Morant out for the season?

Tim MacMahon reacts to Ja Morant's impending season-ending shoulder surgery.

So the positive side will be Memphis' highest pick since Morant took No. 2 in 2019. The Grizzlies' rapid rise among playoff contenders meant they had to trade up to No. 10 in 2021 for adding a third lottery pick (Ziaire Williams, who has yet to develop as they hoped) to their core of Morant and 2018 No. 4 pick Jaren Jackson Jr.

Early in Morant's career, Memphis was able to compensate by hitting late picks, grabbing contributors Santi Aldama (No. 30), Clarke (No. 21), Xavier Tillman Sr. (No. 35) and primary starter Desmond Bane (No. 35). 30) outside of the lottery. This success has dried up in recent times. Aldama is the only one of the Grizzlies' four first-round picks in 2021 and 2022 to earn a grade above replacement level this season thanks to my wins above the replacement player metric. Second-round pick Vince Williams Jr. surpassed first-rounders Ziaire Williams, Jake LaRavia and David Roddy in the team's rotation.

With Memphis heading toward the luxury tax when Bane's extension kicks in next season, as Bobby details below, a lottery pick could be the Grizzlies' best opportunity to add another contributor before the arrival of Morant.

Morant, who is now undergoing surgery, should get him back on the field in time to perfect his game this summer rather than spending it on rehabilitation. The typical labrum repair requires about five months of rehabilitation, as Jeff Stotts detailed in In Street Clothes, and it's a procedure that several of the league's best players — including Jalen Brunson, Paul George and Pascal Siakam — have undergone. income to prosper.

Barring further setbacks, Morant's injury wipes the slate clean on a Memphis season that was doomed from the start and allows the Grizzlies to start fresh in 2024-25 with a lottery pick likely in hand.

-Kevin Pelton

How Morant's injury could impact the trade deadline – and beyond

The Grizzlies' season so far has been split into two parts.

The first was Morant's 25-game suspension and injuries to Marcus Smart, Clarke, Adams, Luke Kennard, Derrick Rose and LaRavia. Adams and Clarke were ruled out of the season before it started, and the other four players missed at least five games, forcing coach Tyler Jenkins to use 12 different starting lineups while Morant was out, during which Memphis is easily ranked #1. missed matches.

The second half of the Grizzlies' season includes the final 11 games, when Morant returned, Smart recovered and Memphis looked like its playoff teams of years past. The Grizzlies went 7-4 once Morant finished serving his suspension, including impressive wins over the New Orleans Pelicans (twice), Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns (without Morant).

Now that Morant is done with the season, Memphis is likely headed for a bottom-six record in the league. However, that doesn't mean the roster needs to be shaken up. The core of Morant, Smart, Bane and Jackson has given Memphis belief that this team can return to the playoffs next season, especially when Adams and Clarke return.

The Grizzlies' approach to the 2024 NBA trade deadline will depend on finances and whether they can open up a spot on the team.

With Bane's extension set for next season, the Grizzlies will be a luxury, first-apron team if they keep Kennard, who has a $14.8 million team option for next season. The easy solution to evade the tax would be to refuse this option. Injuries have limited Kennard to 13 games this season, but he could still have value in a trade, since teams looking to acquire him have no future obligations beyond this season.

The question then for Memphis would be whether the Grizzlies are willing to take back his salary if it means acquiring a player who can make an impact on the team now and next season.

The Grizzlies could also look to move Tillman and John Konchar for draft picks. Tillman is on an expiring contract and Konchar has played an average of 16 minutes per game this season. Konchar is under contract through 2026-27 and is an insurance policy if Kennard's team option is declined.

Memphis has 15 players under contract and the front office's goal is to create an open spot to convert Vincent Williams Jr.'s two-way contract. The wing scored a career-high 19 points in a win at Phoenix , and his defense earned him playing time.

The Grizzlies also have a $6.3 disabled player exception and could get another ($12.4 million) for Morant's injury. However, to use the exception, Memphis would also have to create a roster spot.

— Bobby Marques