Spanish Supercopa preview: Will we get an El Clasico final?،
The first piece of silverware of the Spanish season is up for grabs this week in Saudi Arabia, where Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid and Osasuna will battle it out for the Spanish Super Cup. Madrid will face Atlético on Wednesday in the first semi-final, then Barça will face Osasuna on Thursday for a place in the final on Sunday. All three matches will be played at the King Saud University Stadium in Riyadh.
The four-team format, first implemented in 2019-20, and the decision to move the competition to January have increased its importance. Barça coach Xavi Hernández says winning the competition last year by beating Madrid 3-1 in the final gave his team the belief they needed to go on and win La Liga.
Similar narratives will be in play this week. Barça and Atlético must prove that they are respectively seven and ten points behind the La Liga leaders. Madrid, meanwhile, are aiming for a first trophy since adding Jude Bellingham to their squad. Finally, underrated Osasuna will see this as a free kick in their first ever Super Cup appearance.
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Real Madrid-Atlético Madrid
Wednesday's semi-final between Real Madrid and Atlético is the first of three Madrid derbies in just over three weeks, with the Super Cup clash in Riyadh followed by the Copa del Rey round of 16 at the Metropolitano on January 18 and the La Liga match. at the Bernabeu on the weekend of February 4. It's a series of games that could go some way to defining both clubs' seasons.
The last time the two teams met, on September 24, Atlético won comfortably 3-1. It was Real Madrid's worst performance – and only defeat – so far this season. Atlético's three headed goals, two for Álvaro Morata and one for Antoine Griezmann, all came from left-sided crosses, revealing what Real coach Carlo Ancelotti called collective “defensive fragility” in his team.
Ancelotti's diamond in midfield had left the team too narrow, its wings exposed. Since then, a tactical adjustment has seen Player of the Season Bellingham move to the left to help cover that flank, while another midfielder – often Federico Valverde or Luka Modric – does the same job on the right side. The result was a much stronger lineup. Real have the best defense in Spain this season, conceding just 11 goals in 19 league matches. This is half as much as Atlético, usually economical (23).
The two teams are now in very different places. Real Madrid have not lost since that defeat against Atlético, with 16 wins and 3 draws out of 19 since. On the other hand, Atléti showed themselves to be more and more inconsistent. They were beaten 1-0 by Barcelona on December 3 – wasting a chance to prove their title – and lost 2-0 at Athletic Club, before drawing 3-3 with Getafe before Christmas and losing 4- 3 in Girona last time. week.
After a good start, Atlético now finds itself fifth in La Liga behind Madrid, Girona, Barça and Athletic. Their best hope in Riyadh lies in attacking duo Griezmann and Morata. They have 33 goals between them in all competitions, most recently in Morata's hat-trick against Girona. The Spain captain is in the form of his life and would love to knock out his former club.
A tight, careful affair seems likely, perhaps reminiscent of the last time these teams met in Saudi Arabia. The 2020 Super Cup final ended 0-0, with Valverde sent off for a cynical last-ditch tackle on Morata as he scored the goal in extra time, only for Real Madrid to win the trophy on penalties. Expect Real to progress this time, but by an equally narrow margin.
Barcelona-Osasuna
Once again, Barça finds itself in the Super Cup with borderline unnecessary importance given to the competition. What was once the curtain-raiser to the season in August, a sometimes glorified friendly, has been some great moments in the club's recent history since the introduction of the four-team mid-season format. Defeat against Atlético in the 2020 semi-final cost manager Ernesto Valverde his job.
A defeat against Athletic Club in the final the following year increased the pressure on new manager Ronald Koeman. There was finally success last season, with Xavi saying beating Madrid in the final was a “turning point” for his players. This gave confidence and helped them win the La Liga title for the first time since 2019.
On Thursday, Barca are being asked to not only beat Osasuna, but also to make a statement. Even when winning in recent weeks, the Catalans have been criticized for their performances. Narrow victories in the Copa del Rey against fourth-division Barbastro and in La Liga against bottom club Almeria were almost treated as defeats by the local media. Barca are now on a streak of 20 games without a victory by more than a single goal – the longest such streak in their 125-year history.
They will take a strong team to Saudi Arabia and should have enough to get over the line against Osasuna, although a final against Madrid or Atlético would pose another challenge. Full-backs Alejandro Balde and João Cancelo both missed the game at Barbastro on Sunday but could return for the Super Cup. Iñigo Martínez and Gavi will not be available, however, while Pedri is also a major doubt.
Osasuna, meanwhile, were one of last season's revelations but have struggled to reach the same heights this year. Their run to the Copa del Rey final, where they lost to Madrid, earned them a place in the Super Cup, while they finished seventh in La Liga, a European qualifier. This season has been more difficult. They are 12th in the championship at the halfway point but will have the freedom to face a Barça team under pressure as underdogs.
Barca's quality should just get them to the final, although they are unlikely to end their losing streak by more than one goal. A meeting with Madrid or Atlético could then offer another great moment for Xavi and his players: win well and everything will still seem possible this season, but lose and the knives will come out.
