Why the Atlanta Falcons fired coach Arthur Smith, and what’s next،
ATLANTA — In August, Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank said he would be disappointed if his team wasn't more competitive in 2023 and showed improvement. What Blank watched throughout the season was way too much of the same.
So Blank decided to make a change, firing coach Arthur Smith after three seasons late Sunday night following a 48-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints with a playoff spot on the line.
It was a somewhat quick turnaround for the typically patient Blank, who gave Jim Mora Jr. three seasons, Mike Smith seven years and Dan Quinn more than five years. The difference is that these three coaches all made the playoffs in their first or second year as head coach.
Although Arthur Smith's situation was different than his three predecessors when he took over due to salary cap constraints, he also never finished a season with a winning record or participated in the playoffs. Atlanta is now embarking on a coaching search.
Why fire Smith?
The only thing the Falcons were during Smith's tenure was inconsistent. Atlanta never won more than two games in a row under Smith, and his last two seasons had at least three straight losses.
After the Falcons ended a three-game losing streak in December by beating the New Orleans Saints, Smith was asked how to keep his energy up. In a way, he summed up his mandate in the process.
“Consistency is true,” Smith said. That's the biggest challenge from week to week. For us to take the next step, we have to. Be consistent and play with the same focus and energy last week.”
And a lot of that comes down to quarterback play. Smith has had four starting quarterbacks in his three seasons: Matt Ryan in 2021, Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder in 2022 then Ridder and Taylor Heinicke this season. Perhaps it was the decision to go with Ridder – and then Ridder’s propensity for turnovers and critical errors – that ultimately brought Smith in.
Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot were hired into an unenviable cap situation and spent two offseasons cleaning it up. This season was the first in which Smith had a roster made up mostly of players he and Fontenot were looking for. The improvement was not visible in the record or in the quarterback.
Smith's calls and decision-making were also suspect at times. Against the Carolina Panthers in Week 15, he opted for a game plan that was far too conservative against a one-win Panthers team. It was a decision that played a role in Atlanta's 9-7 loss to the Panthers and put their playoff hopes in jeopardy.
Atlanta had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and couldn't take advantage of it. The Falcons lost to the Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, Washington Commanders and Tennessee Titans, all teams that finished in the bottom 10.
“Going out there, there were times in games where we obviously looked good,” offensive coordinator Dave Ragone said. “And there were times when we had problems.”
On offense, eliminating turnovers and improving third-down conversion rates were areas Ragone flagged as inconsistent; the Falcons were tied for 24th with 28 turnovers and tied for 13th with a 40% third-down success rate.
What is the pulse of the locker room?
Falcons players seemed to really enjoy playing for Smith and often supported him when questions about his work arose late in the season. There was consensus on how he treated them as players and how he handled their responsibilities.
“I believe in what he stands for and what we're trying to do here,” left tackle Jake Matthews said Dec. 17. “And I absolutely agree.”
After the resounding defeat against the Saints in the season finale, they still supported their coach. Several players expressed that the problems were not with the coaching staff and that they hoped the staff would return in 2024.
The concept of shared responsibility – which Smith often preached to his team and publicly – carried a lot of weight with the players. The locker room remained together until the last days. Smith even joined the players for a brief shootaround on a basketball hoop in the locker room after the final day of practice.
“Coach Smith is the best coach I’ve ever had,” right guard Chris Lindstrom told ESPN on Sunday. “I absolutely love him, and I think this group and this team does too.”
Although money also helps attract free agents, Atlanta was able to land coveted players, such as safety Jessie Bates III and defensive lineman Calais Campbell, this offseason in part because they believed in what Smith was trying to build.
So why didn't it work?
It starts with the quarterback.
Ridder became a starter in 2023 after a four-game stint at the end of the 2022 season. He showed flashes of potential wasted by clumsy problems and untimely interceptions, ultimately leading to an about-face between Ridder and Heinicke, who had starting experience in Washington.
Even though quarterback was the main issue – with defensive issues in Smith's first two seasons largely resolved by the hiring of defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen and a personnel upgrade last offseason – there had other factors in attack.
For example, for every well-designed, innovative play Smith came up with, there was a decision to run in a third-and-long situation or give the ball to someone other than one of his stars in critical situations.
But Smith's failure in his tenure comes down to issues at quarterback.
What's next at quarterback?
The new coach will dictate that, but it seems clear that Ridder and Heinicke are not the answer.
While Ridder showed flashes of success, he turned the ball over far too often to be an effective starter, including in the season finale when he was reinserted as a starter after Heinicke suffered an ankle injury and had two turnovers in the second half – one interception. and a lost fumble. His decision-making was sometimes a headache. Ridder threw an interception in the end zone against Washington, a goal-line fumble against Tampa Bay and a red zone interception against Carolina; two of these three matches ended in defeats.
Ridder finished the season completing 64.2% of his passes for 2,836 yards, 12 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and 12 fumbles. Heinicke had a 54.4% completion rate for 890 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions.
A question for the new coach will be whether Ridder and/or Heinicke should remain on the team as backups. Heinicke has one season remaining on his contract and a $9 million cap hit for 2024. Ridder has two years remaining on his rookie contract. But it would be hard to see any coach sticking with Ridder as a starter.
Whether Atlanta seeks a veteran starter or accepts a rookie in the next draft could depend on the next head coach and offensive coordinator. A rookie may need to be traded in the draft, but the Falcons have room to spend. The problem might be knowing who is available. Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield and Ryan Tannehill are the top quarterbacks expected to become free agents.
Who could Atlanta target as their next coach?
Teams often go the opposite of what they've had before, so a candidate with prior head coaching experience could be what Blank and Fontenot are considering. But this may not be the most attractive year for that, especially because former Detroit Lions and Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Caldwell said last year that he was done looking for head coaching jobs (he might have been a wise choice).
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh would be an obvious choice, as he has won everywhere he has coached in college and the NFL. Although Bill Belichick is 71 years old and has had losing seasons in three of his last four years, he remains one of the best coaches of all time and would be worth calling up if he and the New England Patriots part ways .
Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson could make a lot of sense given Atlanta's offensive playmakers are similar to the Lions at the No. 1 receiver position (Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Drake London Atlanta), tight end No. 1 (Sam LaPorta). against Kyle Pitts) and running back (David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs against Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson).
If the Las Vegas Raiders choose not to retain interim head coach Antonio Pierce, he would be worthy of being interviewed and looked at at length due to his performance this season.
No matter who Atlanta targets, their head coaching position should be an attractive job due to the team's offensive talent, reasonable cap space and young playmakers on defense. Additionally, the new coach will not be linked to any incumbent quarterbacks.
