Has Russell Wilson played his last game for the Broncos?

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. – The biggest decision the Denver Broncos will face this offseason involves the future of quarterback Russell Wilson, and they seemed to hint at what lies ahead by benching him Wednesday in favor of Jarrett Stidham with two games remaining in the regular season.

Wilson's five-year, $242.6 million contract signed in 2022 has plenty of potential salary cap challenges if Wilson isn't behind center in 2024, but coach Sean Payton has openly expressed his dissatisfaction with the offensive.

Wilson is in the NFL's top 10 in touchdown passes and passer rating, but the Broncos are among the worst in the league in third-down production and goal-against situations, as well as in 22nd place in the red zone. The Broncos will also likely finish without a 1,000-yard receiver for the fourth straight season and likely miss the playoffs for the eighth.

Wilson had just one 300-yard passing game this season – the team's 70-20 loss to the Miami Dolphins – but was more efficient and threw fewer interceptions (8) than the last season, when he finished with a career-low 16 touchdowns. , 11 interceptions and 55 sacks, a career high.

But given the news coming out of the Broncos' facilities, is he on his way out of Denver? We answer the biggest questions:

Why put Wilson on the bench with two games left in the season?

Payton was furious with the offense for much of the second half of the season, including an outburst on Wilson during the team's loss to Detroit. On Tuesday, Payton said the Broncos were “average or below average in a lot of things offensively” despite Wilson being tied for sixth in the NFL in touchdown passes (26).

And then there's the money. Wilson is guaranteed $39 million in 2024 whether he's with the team or not, but he also has another $37 million that would be guaranteed if he can't pass a physical in early March. An injury in the final two games of the season could potentially trigger this guarantee. The Broncos have made it clear they don't want to have to pay that. — Jeff Legwold

Did Wilson start his last game in Denver?

This is the first step towards this conclusion. But if that's the case, there will be big decisions and significant roster-building issues ahead.

Wilson's deal carries huge dead money charges over the next two years if the Broncos fire him. There's no real solution to this problem, so it's salary cap space that can't be spent on players, including potential quarterback replacements.

The impending crop of free agent quarterbacks looks slim if they try to improve on Wilson, and the Broncos have just six picks in April's draft, with no second-rounders.

They might not like the idea of ​​Wilson behind center, but it's going to be painful for them to find an alternative. — Legwold

What kind of financial hit would the Broncos take if they part ways with Wilson?

The Broncos could designate Wilson for release after June 1 after the season and owe $85 million in dead money, spread over two seasons. They are expected to pay $35.4 million in 2024 and $49.6 million in 2025. Denver would also owe Wilson $39 million in cash for 2024. If the Broncos released Wilson, Payton would likely have to find an inexpensive solution to the quarterback position and try to win with a different sort of roster-building philosophy.

Trading Wilson before June 1 would leave the Broncos with a staggering $68 million in dead money next year, unless Denver can convince the acquiring team to pay its $22 million option bonus . The acquiring team would owe Wilson $54 million over the next two years if they didn't recoup the bonus (and $76 million if they did). Wilson's deal probably has negative trade value, but the quarterback market is irrational. — Bill Barnwell

Denver is expected to pick No. 13 in the 2024 draft. Could they target a QB there?

The Broncos are expected to be considered among quarterbacks in April's draft, but they could miss out on the four expected to be selected in the first round. USC's Caleb Williams, North Carolina's Drake Maye and LSU's Jayden Daniels will almost certainly be off the board by Denver's timing, leaving Michigan's JJ McCarthy as the only realistic possibility (although McCarthy can still stay at university for another year).

If McCarthy falls outside the top 10 – where at least six teams could make a quarterback move – the Broncos should jump at the chance to add his skills to their roster. McCarthy is muscular, very mobile and very effective as a passer, both inside and outside the pocket. His second-down ability, court vision and movement skills would fit perfectly into Payton's scheme. — Matt Miller

If the Broncos cut Wilson, how will he fit into the QB market in 2024?

Despite the bench, Wilson should have value on the free agent market, especially if Minnesota's Kirk Cousins ​​or Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield re-sign with their current teams.

Wilson struggles operating from the pocket, but he has four game-winning drives this season. He always throws well on the move and has good touch on the ball from deep.

The Falcons and Patriots will most likely be in the market for a veteran passer, as well as the Giants if Daniel Jones needs more time to recover from his knee injury.

Wilson once had the Raiders on his personal shortlist as he looked to leave Seattle. If Las Vegas goes the veteran route, Wilson would have the chance to attack Payton's defense twice a year.

Look, Wilson's days of making big money are probably over. He wore out his welcome in two stops. But have you seen the quarterback climate over the last two years and who is playing meaningful snaps on Sundays? There is a place for him. –Jérémy Fowler

Does Stidham have a chance to start next year?

If Wilson is gone, it's an open case. There are those around the league who believe Payton convinced Stidham to come to Denver when Stidham had other options in free agency, with the idea that Stidham might have a chance to at least compete for the starting job at a given moment.

Neither Payton nor Stidham have publicly said anything resembling this, but beyond the offensive line makeover in free agency, the Broncos were very aggressive in pursuing Stidham last March. What he does on Sunday and likely in next week's finale against the Las Vegas Raiders could give him an early push to show he has that potential. — Legwold