Who will be the UFC champions on Dec. 31, 2024?،
In 2023, UFC champions have put their belts on the line 16 times, and on six of those occasions, the challenger has walked out of the cage with the gold. If we add the three fights for the vacant titles, we realize how eventful the year has been. Of the promotion's 12 title belts, only four ended year 23 in the hands of the same person who held them last January 1. Who would have predicted this?
Not me, that's for sure. As I embark on my third annual attempt to predict who the UFC champions will be at the end of the coming year, I'll share the most important – yet counterintuitive – thing I've learned: see big. In 2022, seven titles have changed hands. This year, nine title fights ended with the crowning of new champions.
How did I make my predictions for 2023? I predicted six title changes, but I leaned too much into a glorious past, predicting that three former champions – Israel Adesanya, Kamaru Usman and Jiří Procházka – would regain their throne. Adesanya did so, but was removed again before the end of the year. Only my darts Sean O'Malley and Alexandre Pantoja hit the mark. I guess I wasn't imaginative enough to imagine Sean Strickland and the 205-pound version of Alex Pereira finishing the year with gold.
So let's try again. For 2024, I'm leaving with six new champions.
Middleweight: Khamzat Chimaev
This guy is a champion in waiting forever. The explosive start to his UFC career was the stuff of legend, even if the COVID pandemic slowed his journey in a way no opponent could. Chimaev is now looking to take over at middleweight and I don't see anyone stopping him – at least not among the fine gentlemen who will be participating in a title dance on January 20th either.
I have a hard time imagining Strickland going through all of 2024 with the belt. In fact, it will be a significant accomplishment if he gets past Dricus du Plessis in their UFC 297 rematch – this one. inside the cage. Du Plessis is undefeated in the UFC, with all but one of his six victories coming inside the Octagon. Never mind. In my mind, whoever wins will be a stepping stone for Chimaev.
But will Chimaev be able to keep the belt I just awarded him, once Adesanya and Robert Whittaker come for him? Any one of them could seriously undermine this prediction.
Women's Flyweight: Erin Blanchfield
I wouldn't say Blanchfield would be a slam dunk pick if she faced current champion Alexa Grasso. And if Grasso were to lose the belt, it might not even happen against Blanchfield, if the UFC instead chose to give Valentina Shevchenko another chance to win back her old title, or if the matchmakers gave Grasso and the weight list straw Zhang Weili their wish and their book. a champion versus champion superfight in April. But I'm going to stick with Blanchfield as the strong point of this division.
The 24-year-old has developed a strong enough striking game to stay alongside Grasso for extended periods, but she would surely want to take the fight to the canvas – the world of Blanchfield. However, her unwavering self-confidence is more essential than any of her physical skills. “Cold Blooded” fully believes that she is on the right path to becoming champion, and I believe it too.
Light heavyweight: Jiří Procházka
A year ago, I predicted that Procházka would hold the belt at the end of 2023. In my predictions through 2022, I also had him finishing as champion. Do you spot a trend here? So yes, why not 2024?
Sure, I was wrong twice, but Procházka was close both times, which encourages me for '24. He won the title in June 2022, but before the end of the year he suffered a serious shoulder injury and had to leave the championship. He returned from his injury last month in a fight for the vacant title, but lost by knockout to Pereira.
But I still believe in Procházka. He is physically and mentally strong, fearless and creative. And even though it won't be easy to wrest the belt from Pereira, I (still) think it will be Procházka's year.
Welterweight: Shavkat Rakhmonov
Leon Edwards looked like a champion just over a week ago at UFC 296 – as did Rakhmonov, who was so dominant that some are foolishly calling for him to outpoint the next deserving title challenger, Belal. “Remember the name and the 10- Fight an invincibility streak” Muhammad.
Rakhmonov, whose solution to MMA's chronic bad judgment lies in his 18 finishes in 18 career fights, has earned the right to wait for the winner of Edwards vs. Muhammad. I could imagine either of them taking Rakhmonov where he's never gone before – to a decision (gasp) – but I don't see either of them beating him.
Men's Bantamweight: Cory Sandhagen
I feel like I'm taking a risk with this prediction. I expect O'Malley to retain the title when he fights Marlon Vera at UFC 299 in March – 'Suga Sean' has a bee in his rainbow cap since 2020 loss to 'Suga Sean' Chito”, the only blemish on his record. So he'll be up for that one, and something spectacular might be in store.
Once Sandhagen returns from a torn bicep, he should be lined up to take a shot at O'Malley, which would be a great fight. I'd lean Sandhagen in this matchup – and I'd lean even more if the guy he has to take the belt from is Vera (whom he beat by unanimous decision in a five-round UFC Fight Night main event in March) or the winner of the February meeting between Merab Dvalishvili and Henry Cejudo, if the survivor of that fight was next.
Women's bantamweight: Valentina Shevchenko
Two years ago, in a story like this, I predicted that the champion of this division would be Shevchenko. At the time, she owned the flyweight title and Julianna Peña was in the middle of her short reign at 135 pounds. I thought Amanda Nunes might not fight for a while, setting the stage for Shevchenko to become the latest champ-champ.
That didn't happen and it probably won't in 2024 either, as Shevchenko no longer holds the title at 125. But unless she's determined to regain her old crown, now would be a good time to move up a division. . The bantamweight title is currently vacant, although Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva will fight for it on January 20. That leaves plenty of time in 2024 for someone to step in and take a chance. Why not Shevchenko?
Divisions hold firm
Heavy weights: Jon Jones won't return from injury to defend his title for the better part of a year, and Dana White has somehow convinced himself that Jones vs. 41-year-old Stipe Miocic, who has been out of action for three years, is the fight that fans want. see. There was a time when this was the case, but those days are over. Make way for the new breed of big guys, led by Tom Aspinall. But whether Jones' challenger is Miocic or Aspinall, I expect the GOAT to be one and done in 2024 – and to hold the belt until he's ready to withdraw.
Lightweight: Do you think anyone will knock Islam Makhachev off his throne? Really? WHO? Superman? Andre the Giant?
Featherweight men: Alexander Volkanovski has held the title for four full years, making him the longest reigning champion in the UFC, with more than twice as many defenses as any other current titlist. Undefeated Ilia Topuria won't be a pushover on Jan. 20, and bouncing between 145 and 155 pounds could put a strain on the champion. But I have to ride with Volk.
Men's flyweight: UFC 296 made me realize that Alexandre Pantoja is the Volkanovski of this division.
Straw weight: Or maybe Pantoja is the Zhang of his division. That would be a high compliment, compared to the pound-for-pound No. 1, who, like Pantoja, seems to operate at a different speed than anyone she's in the cage with. Whether or not she has a chance to add the flyweight title at UFC 300, I think 2024 will end with Zhang still the strawweight champion.
Women's featherweight: (This line is intentionally left blank.)
