In just 48 hours, UFC 294’s card went from good to great،
Perhaps all major UFC cards should remain blank until a few weeks before fight night. Last-minute matchmaking certainly did wonders for UFC 294.
For months, the promotion had been building a strong lineup for Saturday’s return to Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The main event would be a rematch between UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev and Charles Oliveira, who owned the belt until Makhachev took it away the last time the UFC was in Abu Dhabi, there is a year old at UFC 280. The co-main event would be the first appearance in over a year for Khamzat Chimaev, once thriving but recently grounded, not in a good way, moving up to middleweight to take on the former title challenger Paulo Costa. It looked like we were in for an entertaining conclusion to a night of fisticuffs.
But last Wednesday, 11 days before the first punch, the two headlining bouts vanished into thin air. Oliveira revealed he suffered a serious cut above his right eye in training. Costa reported that he had surgery on his right elbow. Both were out. So much for building our hopes.
Fear not, fight the fans. The UFC matchmakers immediately got to work with their hole repair kit. And within hours, they had put together an even more powerful one-two punch to take the top spot at UFC 294 (ESPN+ PPV, 2 p.m. ET; prelims on ESPN+, 10 a.m.).
Makhachev will move from one rematch to the next, this time with a much more competitive two-man tango partner, Alexander Volkanovski. The final fight ended with the featherweight champion on top of a knocked down and knocked down Makhachev, dropping punches as the horn sounded to end the fifth round of their UFC lightweight superfight 284 in February. Moments later, it was Makhachev who raised his hand as the winner of a unanimous decision to retain his title. But Volkanovski has been so impressive that he, not Makhachev, holds the top spot in ESPN’s men’s pound-for-pound rankings. I can’t wait to see round six and beyond #1 and #2.
This weekend’s co-main event saw an even bigger upgrade, as it now features a fighter who has spent considerable time in this No. 1 pound-for-pound slot. Kamaru Usman, the former longtime welterweight champion, stepped up to give Chimaev what appears to be the toughest test of his undefeated career. And Chimaev vehemently accepted the challenge. Much respect to both for agreeing to a last-minute match against an unknown, in a clash that seems sure to abruptly redirect at least one of their careers.
And also lots of respect for the matchmakers who overcame not one, but two major fight cancellations. Talk about fighting through adversity and becoming great.
Let’s break down the stories from this weekend:
Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2: A Better Main Event
Makhachev-Oliveira 2 could have been exciting. Before losing his belt to Makhachev, Oliveira had won 11 fights in a row and had just finished Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. The former champion has more UFC submissions (16) than anyone, making him one of the most dangerous grapplers in the game. But we can’t ignore what we saw when he fought with Makhachev. The Dagestanis shot Oliveira down several times, beat him bloody, and finished him off with a seemingly easy submission.
In contrast, Makhachev’s fight against Volkanovski ended with the Australian appearing victorious. Make no mistake: Makhachev deserved to be the one to raise his hand. He was in control for most of the fight’s 25 minutes, building a lead on the judges’ scorecards with takedowns in each of the first four rounds and heavily racked up control time. But Volkanovski kept coming. And here is the visual that emerges from the conclusion of the fight: a heavy-breathing Makhachev clinging to survive the onslaught of his tireless challenger. As soon as the final horn sounded, social media lit up with “Encore! Encore!” And now we will have it.
Usman vs. Chimaev: a much better co-main
Even if Costa was at full strength, instead of being removed from surgery just a few weeks old, Usman would still be a significant upgrade. He is the largest 170-pounder in MMA history, alongside Georges St-Pierre. Before losing his title to Leon Edwards last year, Usman had won 15 fights in a row, the longest streak ever for a UFC welterweight and the second-longest streak in the promotion’s history. He can punch and wrestle. Just like Chimaev.
They fight at middleweight, a division Chimaev has fought many times. The burly Costa, who competed at light heavyweight only two fights ago, would have subjected Chimaev to a tougher test. But Usman, a career welterweight, also has a good measure of physicality in him. And he has the skills and know-how to take Chimaev into waters deeper than he’s ever swum.
Glass Half Empty: Short Notice Could Derail Performance
Eleven days’ notice doesn’t mean fighters have nearly two weeks to prepare. The gym time was reduced to five days, ending Monday morning. From now on, fighters will spend much of their time carrying around huge jugs of water as part of a weight cut while fulfilling their fight obligations during interviews with MMA media and press conferences. I wouldn’t wish any of these tasks on anyone.
Makhachev and Volkanovski have faced each other before, so there is reason to believe – and hope – that they can pick up where they left off. But there’s always the worry that a short-term booking won’t give us the best recall possible. Are we wasting one of the great revenges of our time by not letting it fully marinate? Or by not letting the fighters prepare accordingly for such fierce competition?
The stakes for Chimaev and Usman, even without a belt on the line, could be more dramatic. Will Chimaev’s rise to what seemed like an inevitable title shot hit a brick wall? Will Usman, who dropped his belt to Edwards in August 2022 and also lost the rematch in March, see his skid reach three in a row? Addressing such crucial issues with little preparation seems ill-advised, even imprudent. But the show must go on.
Glass Half Full: Short-Notice Variables Accelerate the Plot
The purist in me wants every title fight to pit the No. 1 in a weight class against the No. 2 in that same division, that they fight at a neutral site that’s not far above the sea level and each participant enters the cage having had a successful and uneventful training camp.
Yeah, that’s what I want. Put both guys in bubble wrap during fight week, just to be safe.
But if I stuck to my standards, do you know how many great fights I would see? Zero.
Things happen. Virtually every major fight has some sort of X-factor that tilts the playing field. And I must grudgingly admit that unexpected twists and turns add to the drama of the sport.
I’m not a fan of WWE’s manufactured melodrama of weigh-in shoving and press conference verbal sparring, especially when the insults veer in ugly directions. I’m more interested in drama that unfolds organically, like what we’ve already seen with UFC 294. Nothing was scripted about cutting Oliveira’s eyebrows during a regular workout , Costa’s elbow surgery, Volkanovski’s chest shots. and Usman, the welcome that never says no from Makhachev and Chimaev.
The drama surrounding these two fights transcends the matchups and their rankings compared to the original matchups. The drama surrounding these two fights is heightened by the situation of four athletes, each taking on a career-defining challenge with little time to prepare.
If these were typical fights with typical preparation, those of us who follow the sport might have reasonably informed opinions on who will win. But last-minute matchmaking added a disorienting variable.
Will the detrimental effects of the short notice become apparent during either fight? In what performance? And who will own the night?
We might think we know, but we don’t. We can only stand back and watch, ready to be surprised.
