Fluminense vs. Man City: Who will win the tactical battle?

One of the teams participating in the Club World Cup final on Friday has much greater resources than the other. But can the playing field be leveled through the battle of ideas? Can Fluminense coach Fernando Diniz achieve a tactical triumph against Manchester City's Pep Guardiola?

This is an exciting prospect for armchair strategists everywhere. Diniz has become something of a hero to soccer hipsters for the unorthodox way he organizes his teams, and Friday is his biggest test — and his biggest opportunity.

When Diniz began making his name as a manager almost a decade ago, he was frequently compared to Guardiola. His teams were possession-based and fought their way back even when under intense pressure. Guardiola then seemed to be an obvious reference.

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But it's a comparison Diniz has always rejected. His ideas, he was keen to emphasize, were his own – and time has clearly shown that he was right. Because the differences with Guardiola are at least as striking as the similarities.

In the Guardiola model, there are areas on the pitch that are meant to be filled. Jack Grealish hugs the left touchline. When he steps in, a fullback or midfielder is supposed to come out to keep the field wide. The idea is that the team is set up in such a way that the player in possession of the ball is guaranteed to have a number of options for a quick pass. This is called position play.

Diniz is praised by those who find Guardiola's style too robotic, too pre-programmed. There is little “position” in Diniz’s team in possession. Players are encouraged to engage in a chaotic rotation. The two wingers could be next to each other on the same flank, and the same goes for the full-backs, taking on the role of wingers.

Often, almost the entire team will be brought to one side of the field, and they will keep the ball there in complex passing movements, either hoping that sheer strength in numbers will allow them to break through, or waiting for the moment to match. surprise move to the opposite flank – like the moment Marcelo won the vital penalty that helped them win Monday's semi-final against African champions Al Ahly. The coach's playing model is so personal that in Brazil it has acquired the label “Dinizism”.

The roots of this unorthodox approach lie in his playing career. An attacking midfielder, he played for some of Brazil's biggest clubs. But he didn't like the experience, feeling angry at the way players were treated like mindless commodities. In addition to preparing to become a coach, he also studied psychology. He brought to the table the belief that players can do more, that even the boldest central defender was the best on his street, and that they are therefore capable of making their own decisions, of taking responsibility, of build relationships between them that can pay off when the team looks to move the ball.

However, his teams' very lack of structure is both a strength and a weakness.

The debit side of the account was clearest when he was with the Brazil team: Diniz balanced his national team duties with his position at Fluminense over the past few months, seemingly keeping the place warm for the finish from Carlo Ancelotti in the middle of next year. (although there is no reason to doubt that this will happen.)

His Brazil team is in shambles, falling to sixth place in World Cup qualifying after six rounds of matches, suffering three straight defeats and losing for the first time at home. Only the bottom two teams in the standings have conceded more goals – and this is a team that, a year ago, at the World Cup in Qatar, allowed few shots on goal.

Like a director with a singular vision, Diniz has an ego. This supported his coaching career, with his desire to be different, sticking to his guns in the face of disappointing results. He has been handed job after job based on promises, and it is only in this current stint with Fluminense that he has finally made the breakthrough and won silverware.

So far, his time in Brazil – and no one knows at the moment how long it will last – has been an exercise in hubris. His first words upon accepting the position were a declaration of supreme confidence: “Everything is in place for this to go well.”

There was no consideration for his lack of experience at national level, the sad fact that there would be almost no time on the training pitch and the difficulties of observing players when they were busy with Fluminense. His Brazilian team was ineffective in attack and dangerously open in defense – and it's the second part of the equation that worries Friday.

Fluminense's lack of structure can certainly confuse the opposition when the Brazilians have the ball. But when the move fails, that same lack of structure can leave the team vulnerable. Ah Ahly really should have put them away on Monday – they had most of the chances. Something similar happened in the semi-final of the Copa Libertadores of South America, when Fluminense couldn't deal with Internacional's Ecuadorian striker Enner Valencia, who missed several glaring chances to put the match to bed.

Manchester City are unlikely to waste that much.

In the current Club World Cup format, there have been three South American triumphs, all Brazilians. Sao Paulo beat Liverpool in 2005, Internacional beat Barcelona the following year and Corinthians beat Chelsea in 2012. They all had 1-0 victories against teams who recognized their opponents' superiority and beaten from a trench, covering to defend themselves and throwing sporadic breaks. .

This is not Fluminense's game. The circumstances of Friday's match could force them to adopt a more conservative attitude. But they hope to have enough of the ball to be able to impose their own idea of ​​the game. And it is this battle of ideas that makes Friday's Club World Cup final so intriguing.