The case for and against 49ers QB Brock Purdy being MVP

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — It turns out that San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy's endorsement for MVP doesn't carry as much weight as his play.

Which is why, less than 24 hours after Purdy said Niners running back Christian McCaffrey should win the award, it was Purdy himself who emerged as the clear favorite to win the award .

As of Tuesday night, Purdy was a -215 favorite to win the MVP award, according to ESPN Bet. He is the early favorite in the MVP market all season.

“I think more than anything, it’s a team award,” Purdy told ESPN. “That's how I see it. And if we manage to win it, great. If not, it doesn't matter. We always have one goal in mind: to win a championship.”

The arguments for and against Purdy have become a topic on television talk shows and various social media platforms. Everyone has their own opinion, and most are played at maximum volume.

Those discussions will be even more intense this week as the Niners prepare for a Christmas Eve showdown against the Baltimore Ravens (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, Levi's Stadium, ABC/ESPN+), a game that will feature both favorites bets who will meet in the Super Bowl and three of the league's top five MVP candidates in Purdy, McCaffrey (fifth at +1200) and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (second at +450).

It's the biggest national stage remaining for Purdy and McCaffrey and a chance for Jackson to make up for lost time with another big game against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17.

For now, Purdy is the favorite and has a clear path to becoming the first Niner to win MVP since quarterback Steve Young in 1994.

Why Purdy will win MVP

While most 49ers are hesitant to choose between teammates, linebacker Fred Warner succinctly explained why Purdy is in charge.

“I think he plays best on the best-playing team in the whole league,” Warner said. “If it's not him, I think Christian should have it. One of them. I feel like it's a no-brainer. … He's a second-year player who is ranked first in every major category, so I think he should win it.

Although arguments about Purdy often focus on his ranking among quarterbacks, there is one thing that is not up for debate: Purdy may not be the best player in the NFL. best quarterback, but he is undoubtedly the most productive.

Through 14 games, Purdy leads the NFL in QBR, yards per attempt, expected points added per dropback, touchdown passes and touchdown-to-interception ratio and is at or near the top in many other categories important. Also seemingly lost in the shuffle: Purdy is doing all this less than a year removed from a devastating right elbow injury that has left some wondering if he could even play this season.

The fact that Purdy's counting stats are so high despite only 27.4 pass attempts per game (21st in the league, the fewest quarterbacks who have started each game) is a testament to his posting historic efficiency numbers. Purdy ranks first or second in expected points added (EPA) on throws at each level starting at or behind the line of scrimmage through those that travel at least 30 yards through the air.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, five quarterbacks have led the league in yards per attempt and touchdown-to-interception ratio in a season since 2000. Four of them – Aaron Rodgers in 2011, Tom Brady in 2007, Peyton Manning in 2004 and 2003 Steve McNair – won MVP. Purdy could be the fifth.

Purdy's yards per attempt (9.9) are on pace to become the third-highest single-season mark in NFL history, behind Hall of Famers Otto Graham (1953) and Norm Van Brocklin (1954). He is percentage points ahead of Kurt Warner (2000), a coincidence given that Purdy would be the lowest drafted (or undrafted) player to win the award since Warner, who claimed it twice.

That makes Warner — whose rise to stardom for the St. Louis Rams bore a striking resemblance to Purdy's — an expert worth listening to when it comes to what Purdy accomplishes in 2023.

“He does what they ask him to do and he does it at as high a level as any quarterback that's asked to do anything on his team in the NFL,” Warner said, which currently has Purdy in the top three of its MVP list. “Period, end of story.”

Why Purdy won't win MVP

Of the various counterpoints to Purdy's candidacy, it's his own suggestion that McCaffrey should be the league's MVP — ostensibly meaning he's the team's MVP — that might prove most important .

Like Purdy and the passing numbers, McCaffrey ranks at or near the top of the league in every major rushing and receiving category among running backs. He is first in rushing yards, scrimmage yards, yards after contact and runs of 10+ yards and is tied for first in scrimmage touchdowns.

And while Purdy's production on relatively few attempts is impressive, the Niners are still a run-first offense with McCaffrey as the fulcrum of everything. This helps explain why coach Kyle Shanahan hates the idea of ​​trying to choose between his two MVP candidates.

“I don’t want them to cancel each other out,” Shanahan said. “But if a non-quarterback wants to get MVP, I don't understand why Christian McCaffrey can't do it. I mean, he's incredible at what he's done all year. If that comes down to a quarterback, so I don't.” “I don't need to talk about Christian. I can talk about our quarterback.”

McCaffrey isn't the only Niner to be brought up in the argument against Purdy. Detractors point out that Purdy is surrounded by the best cast of talented players and playmakers – Shanahan – in the league. It's a group that includes McCaffrey, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, tight end George Kittle and fullback Kyle Juszczyk. That doesn't take into account all-star left tackle Trent Williams, who has his own legitimate argument as the team's leader. TRUE most valuable player.

It's a notion that no one in San Francisco, including Purdy, would deny. Purdy without a doubt East in an ideal place to succeed. The Niners are a dominant force in yards after catch, posting 6.49 yards after catch per completion, which is by far the best mark in the league.

“Does he benefit from the system and the players? Of course,” Kurt Warner said. “But what great quarterback doesn't? That's the problem. It continues to amaze me. All great quarterbacks are surrounded by great players. You don't have Hall of Fame quarterbacks who weren't surrounded great players.”

There are other suitors beyond Purdy and McCaffrey, including Jackson, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. All are big names with big games coming up that could strengthen their cause.

And in some ways, Purdy's efficiency could work against him. The Niners have won 10 of their 11 games by double digits, and many of them came in the fourth quarter or shortly after it started. Purdy is averaging just 5.4 pass attempts (only Jackson attempts fewer) and has played an average of 12.6 snaps (only Tua Tagovailoa has played fewer) in the final quarter.

This means that Purdy not only misses opportunities to rack up numbers, but also has had very few chances to run the type of late, winning campaigns that could stand out to voters.

These wins are the only thing Purdy truly covets, no matter how they look.

“I think more than anything, just putting the team first, wanting to win more than anything and getting to where we need to be as a team,” Purdy said. “That's my goal and my goal. It's much more than an MVP.”