Which teams could land top slugger Cody Bellinger?

When agent Scott Boras has several puns ready on one of his free agents, it usually means he has a good one. That's certainly the case for 28-year-old Cody Bellinger, who has the best southpaw production of any player available.

Bellinger, at least according to Boras, is the “belle of the ball” this winter after providing a “full belly” for the Chicago Cubs last season, winning the National League Comeback Player of the Year award and a Silver Slugger. Now it's time for him to cash in after signing a one-year deal worth $17.5 million with Chicago ahead of the 2023 season.

That doesn't mean anything is within reach for the 2019 NL MVP, though, as the history of Boras' biggest clients suggests a long-shot deal. Bellinger is unlikely to celebrate Christmas or even New Years with his new team.

“My experience with [Boras] “It's that he takes a lot of money and years and doesn't move for a while,” said one NL executive. “He's not afraid to lead a guy into February or March as a free agent. Then he figures it only takes one team to blink and that’s usually the case.”

So who's going to blink at Bellinger?

Several left-handed sluggers have already changed teams or signed free agent contracts this offseason. The New York Yankees checked a desperately needed box with the acquisition of Juan Soto in a blockbuster trade with the San Diego Padres. The Los Angeles Dodgers have signed MLB's top free agent Shohei Ohtani to a $700 million contract. And the San Francisco Giants signed Korean Baseball Organization MVP Jung Hoo Lee.

Those moves leave the Toronto Blue Jays and Cubs — teams that fell short in the Ohtani sweepstakes — as Bellinger's top potential suitors. Boras made his sales pitch to teams during the general manager's and winter meetings, using two other clients – Corey Seager and Bryce Harper – as Bellinger's representatives.

“What did they do after signing at 28?” Boras said this during the winter meetings earlier this month. “Harper has improved. Seager has improved. That tells you that these kinds of players, who can do that at such a young age, are actually improving beyond what they did at a younger age age, once they are healthy and come back to play.”.

It's telling, another executive said, that Boras missed out on former Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, who won the MVP at age 24 and then battled injuries before signing a contract. $182 million over seven years with the Colorado Rockies at age 29. only played 122 games in two seasons in Colorado, with an OPS+ of 93.

This career arc mimics Bellinger's – including injuries – although Bellinger arrives in free agency a year younger and on the more coveted left side of the plate. He also had a 133 OPS+ last season, while Bryant had a 124 OPS+ before hitting the market.

Meanwhile, Harper and Seager both signed for over $300 million. This is the air in which Boras currently lives.

“It reminds me of Seager free agency,” Boras recently told ESPN. “Seager was injured during his platform season. Cody had a great platform season.”

Boras believes that discussions that Bellinger won't repeat his .307/.356/.525 slash line from 2023 simply because his average exit velocity (87.9 mph) was the lowest of his career should be dismissed, so which the seven-year veteran reduced on his swing – creating softer contact – with two strikes. In fact, Bellinger had the second-highest batting average (.279) in this situation, behind only Luis Arraez of the Miami Marlins, who won his second straight batting title in 2023.

While it's no surprise that Boras is referring to players who signed for more than $300 million, there's no indication he's looking that much for this client. He East seeking an amount well in excess of $200 million, according to sources familiar with the matter, but it's unclear exactly where the cap for Bellinger's services will reach.

“Boras is sticking with the money that was mentioned at the start of the free agency market,” one executive said. “He will bear it until winter. He will not move.”

Assuming Bellinger is willing to play in Toronto, the Blue Jays could have the advantage over Chicago in several ways. They are already a contending team, having made the playoffs each of the last two years. But they lack balance in their lineup, just like the Yankees did before acquiring Soto. The Cubs are still in build mode, not necessarily ready to overextend themselves for a single player.

“The Cubs aren't the 'pay a guy until he's 40 at the top rate' kind of guy,” one NL executive said. “The Blue Jays might not be either, but they're a little more desperate to finish building their roster. They could match his price.”

Additionally, the Jays recently signed a multi-year deal with a Boras client – ​​pitcher Hyun Jin Ryu signed a four-year, $80 million deal – while the Cubs have stayed out of that deal under the direction of the owner Tom Ricketts. Boras and Ricketts do not have the type of relationship in which the former can simply pick up the phone and make a deal with the latter, according to sources familiar with the matter. This is a tool Boras has used in the past.

“He will absolutely talk directly with an owner and work from that angle,” one executive said. “No doubt about it.”

Boras reiterated this point: “It has a lot to do with ownership. It has to do with their commitment. It has to do with their vision of what they are going to do to develop [through free agency]”.

If Bellinger leaves for the Blue Jays, he could fill out their roster while leaving the same hole on the Cubs. So it may take the Cubs changing their minds — or Bellinger taking less money — for Chicago to avoid losing him.

As Boras said, “The Cubs have their bellies full.” [last season]. They're going to have to loosen their belts to keep Bellinger.”