The race for five places in next season’s Champions League

Two leagues will be rewarded with extra places in next season's Champions League as part of the overhaul to expand it to a 36-team competition – but who is likely to benefit?

Four additional clubs will qualify compared to the current format. And two of those places will go to the top-performing leagues in Europe's three competitions this season.

As the group stages of the Champions League (UCL), Europa League (UEL) and Europa Conference League (UECL) draw to a close this week, we will start to get a clear idea of ​​which leagues could get both places.

How it works?

This is the best average coefficient of all participating teams in Europe for each country.

Each victory is worth two coefficient points, a draw earns you one and you get nothing in the event of a defeat.

There are also bonus points for reaching certain stages, which helps give extra importance to teams that do well in higher level competitions.

Champions League bonus points
4 – Participation in the group stage
5 – round of 16
1 – QC, SF, final

Europa League bonus points
4 – Group winners
2 – Group finalist
1 – Round of 16, QF, SF, final

Europa Conference League bonus points
2 – Group winners
1 – Group finalist
1 – SF, final

The points earned by all clubs are added together and this total score is divided by the number of clubs a country has in Europe. This gives the average of the coefficient.

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So victories are not worth more in the Champions League?

No, the coefficient system is designed to assess the overall strength of leagues. Wins are the same in all competitions, otherwise it would be impossible for leagues with few or no teams in the UCL group stage to progress in the coefficient rankings.

Bonus points serve two purposes. Firstly, to give weight to the strength of the competitions on a sliding scale, and secondly to award points to teams participating in the UCL who might achieve few positive results.

In fact, you could argue that it's better for the leagues if some teams enter the UEL for the Round of 16. Bonus points may be lower in UEL, but each two-legged match has five points up for grabs (four for the result and one to advance to the next round.) If a team stays in UCL, they risk not making it past the next round. . round of 16 and have little chance of increasing the country's coefficient through victories.

Won't that just mean extra spots for two big leagues?

Looking at the previous five seasons, England and Spain occupy seven of the ten places, Italy and Germany one each. Only in 2021-22 did one of the countries with fewer than four teams in the Champions League (the Netherlands) finish in the top two in average coefficient.

So yes, history tells us that it is very likely that two of the top leagues will secure five Champions League places next season.

2022-23: England and Italy
2021-22: England and Netherlands
2020-21: England, Spain
2019-20: Spain, Germany
2018-19: England, Spain

Okay, so who is in the running this season?

Heading into the final round of group stage matches, and taking into account bonus points from clubs that have already booked a place in the knockout stages, this is the top 10.

1. Germany, 12.64
2. England, 11:75 a.m.
3. Italy, 11:71 a.m.
4. Spain, 11:31 a.m.
5. Belgium, 9.8
6. Czechia, 9:25 a.m.
7. France, 9:08 a.m.
8. Türkiye, 9:00 a.m.
9. Netherlands, 8:00 a.m.
10. Greece, 7:00 a.m.

In reality, the race for the two additional places will be between the top four: Germany, England, Italy and Spain… the four leagues which already obtain four places in the competition.

Where is the situation?

A league must keep as many teams as possible still active during the round of 16. At that point, results are harder to come by as the matches become more difficult. The fewer teams there are in European competitions, the less chance there is of competing for the top two.

This is even more important for England and Spain, who started with eight teams in Europe, so each victory is worth slightly less to the coefficient (because it is divided by eight instead of seven.)

– What every team needs to progress in the UCL

1. GERMANY, 12:64 p.m.

Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig have already secured safe passage and bonus points to progress in the UCL. Union Berlin, meanwhile, must beat Real Madrid to have a chance of playing in the UEL, so it's likely that Germany loses a team here.

Bayer Leverkusen are directly qualified for the round of 16 of the UEL, although SC Freiburg may have to play in the round of 16 (another name for the round of 16) if they do not win their group.

Eintracht Frankfurt will participate in the UECL round of 16.

Advanced to the round of 16:4
Advanced, stage to be confirmed:2
To confirm: 1

The Bundesliga are well ahead and clear favorites to secure one of the additional spots. Six of their seven clubs are guaranteed to still be in European competition next year, so the other three leagues could be fighting for a place.

2. ENGLAND, 11:75 a.m.

Arsenal and Manchester City are both UCL group winners, but the other two Premier League teams are in peril. Manchester United are sure to continue in Europe if they beat Bayern Munich, but could exit Europe by finishing last in their group. Newcastle United, meanwhile, need a point at home to AC Milan to at least feature in the UEL, but all options are open, including elimination.

Brighton, Liverpool and West Ham United are all qualified in the UEL, although only Jurgen Klopp's men are certain to avoid the playoffs.

In the UECL, Aston Villa are qualified and must avoid defeat against Zrinjski Mostar to be sure of taking the lead in the group.

Advanced to the round of 16:3
Advanced, stage to be confirmed:3
To confirm:2

The Premier League may be in second place at the moment, but it's a fraction of a point away. Lose two teams and the chances of securing that extra UCL place will be significantly reduced.

3. ITALY, 11:71 a.m.

Internazionale and Lazio have booked their places in the UCL round of 16, while Napoli are assured of at least the Europa League. AC Milan will have to win at Newcastle to continue in Europe.

Both AS Roma and Atalanta are qualified in the UEL, although the former could face the playoffs.

Fiorentina are also qualified in the UECL and need a point against Ferencváros to go top of the group.

Advanced to the round of 16:3
Advanced, stage to be confirmed:3
To confirm: 1

Serie A could still qualify all seven clubs, which would come at the expense of a Premier League team. The match between Newcastle and AC Milan could be very important in the race for five places.

4. SPAIN, 11:31 a.m.

Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, ​​Real Madrid and Real Sociedad are all qualified in the UCL, but Sevilla must win at Lens to advance to the UEL.

In the UEL, Real Betis could win the group or enter the UECL but are sure to continue, while Villarreal must win at Stade Rennais to avoid the play-offs.

Osasuna failed to qualify for the group stage of the Europa Conference League.

Advanced to the round of 16:4
Advanced, stage to be confirmed:2
To confirm: 1
Out: 1

Even though La Liga has four teams in the Champions League, armed with 16 bonus points, Osasuna's failure in qualifying has seriously affected their hopes of finishing in the top two. That said, they will be guaranteed six clubs still in action in the new year, meaning they cannot be ruled out.