UFC 296 storylines: Can Covington finally win a title vs. Edwards?،
UFC 296's most impactful storyline will shine a spotlight on what's right before our eyes, sparkling with the promise of ascendancy. Look at those golden championship belts – two of them! – which will be up for grabs on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena, as bright as the neon lights of the Las Vegas Strip.
Leon Edwards will defend his welterweight championship against two-time title challenger Colby Covington in the main event, just after Alexandre Pantoja put his flyweight belt on the line against a familiar foe, Brandon Royval, whom he submitted just two years ago (ESPN+ PPV, 10 p.m. ET, prelims on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 8 p.m.).
You should never say never in MMA, but this presents itself as a last-ditch expedition to reach the pinnacle of the sport for both challengers. For the champions, Edwards will make his second defense and Pantoja his first; that's just the way of life on the mountain top. Line them up, one hungry climber after another, and if the champion holds on, he'll bring them all down.
There are storylines throughout this fight card – from redemption to resilience to refocusing. Here's what will catch our attention on Saturday:
The enemy of my enemy is my adversary?
Welterweight Championship: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington
This will be Covington's first trip inside the Octagon in 21 months. And enjoy: This will only be his fifth fight since 2019 – but his third attempt at the title in that time. “Chaos” Covington is 2-2 in his last four fights, but here we go again. The UFC seems to really want this guy to get his hands on a belt. Could this be because its most notable cheerleader is a certain former US president who is popular with a significant portion of the MMA fan base? This is a story to watch this weekend, especially with said ex-president expected to be cageside.
But I chose to focus on Covington's character from a different angle: what happens to a heel turn when it has to reverse?
Three of Covington's last four fights have been against bitter foes: both title losses to Kamaru Usman and, most recently, a win over former best friend Jorge Masvidal. The animosity surrounding these grudge matches has been absent from Edwards vs. Covington fight week. Plus, these two inadvertently ended up on the same side of the battle lines.
Edwards feuded with Masvidal before Covington, most notably as the recipient of a “three coins with a soda” punch during a backstage confrontation in 2019. Covington might even identify with Edwards' experience after having himself been the target of a Masvidal. sneak attack last year outside a Miami Beach restaurant.
And then Edwards did twice what Covington couldn't in his two tries: defeat Usman. Given all the heat generated during Covington's rivalry with Usman, he surely must have enjoyed seeing the former champ get knocked down a few pegs. Which put him in the unique position of being happy to see Edwards win.
Can Covington now stir up the animosity that seems to fuel him? Or will he put aside the mind games and rely on his dominating physique to achieve his elusive goal?
How did you ever get back here?
Men's Flyweight Championship: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval
These two fought a little over two years ago, and Pantoja choked out Royval early in the second round. Why are they starting again?
A different key matchmaking factor: Pantoja is now the champion after dethroning Brandon Moreno in July, so his job is to take on the top contender at 125 pounds. That's Royval, who bounced back from the 2021 loss to reel off three straight victories, the last two being first-round finishes of fighters in the ESPN top 10 flyweight rankings.
The first meeting with Pantoja didn't end well for Royval, but it was quick and fiery for as long as it lasted – I can't complain about having more.
What does this guy have against caged judges?
Welterweight: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson
Rakhmonov fought 17 times and won each of those fights – all 17 by knockout (eight) or submission (nine). Even an MMA judge can understand why they will likely be useless for this fight.
“Wonderboy” should prove a tough test, though, even at 40 years old and in the midst of a barren streak of just four wins in his last 10 fights. Thompson may no longer be the same baffling karate pro who fought for the UFC title twice, but among the 24 fights on his resume, he's only finished once.
Is there no end to this dark road?
Lightweight: Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett
When Ferguson knocked out Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in June 2019, it was his 12th straight win and secured a title shot against Khabib Nurmagomedov. But “El Cucuy” had heard this song before — clashes with Khabib had collapsed four times before — and of course, pandemic-related travel restrictions scuttled another showdown between two of the hottest fighters in the world. list.
Since then, Ferguson hasn't even been lukewarm. He lost all six fights, with four defeats in the end. Ferguson, 39, seems like a ghost of the mystifying force he once was. Is the UFC using him as fodder to build Liverpool's lightning rod, 'Paddy The Baddy'? Or will Ferguson's recent unconventional training with former Navy SEAL David Goggins change his trajectory?
When the cage door closes, it's just one on one
Welterweight: Ian Machado Garry vs. Vicente Luque
The first thing Garry will notice is a familiar face across the Octagon. He and Luque trained together until recently at Kill Cliff FC in South Florida. Another thing Garry will notice once the cage door closes: it will only be him and Luque in there. OK, there will also be a referee, but he is trained not to take sides. And right now, it seems like the rest of the MMA world is siding against Garry.
Let's not dwell on the melodrama. Suffice it to say, it involves Garry's personal life, a few gyms he no longer trains at, and several fighters having a low opinion of him. However, there is one aspect of Garry's life that no one disparages: his fighting ability. Can he continue his invincibility by ignoring the negative attention? Or will the distractions cause him to stumble?
Styles remake fights
Men's Featherweight: Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell
Kudos to Emmett for agreeing to this fight on short notice. He had spent an entire training camp grooming Giga Chikadze, a creative and crafty striker. After Chikadze suffered a groin injury and had to withdraw, Emmett accepted a booking that couldn't be more different. Mitchell is a virtuoso grappler who will present a completely different challenge.
I guess you don't turn down fights when you've lost two in a row to fall down the 145-pound hierarchy, like Emmett did. His powerful punches could get him back on track, if only Emmett could keep his back on a canvas that Mitchell says is as flat as the earth.
Will the engine rev up this time or stall again?
Women's Bantamweight: Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa
The story going into the main event at UFC 289 in June was that Amanda Nunes, the greatest in women's MMA history, was retiring as a two-division champion. Having the GOAT be the center of attention was a good thing for Aldana, the woman Nunes beat in her farewell fight.
Without retirement, fans and pundits might have focused more on Aldana's demise. She barely held on, losing 50-44 on two scorecards and 50-43 on the third. Sure, Nunes is an all-time great, but Aldana just froze in there, landing in single digits in strikes in three of five rounds. Can she turn against Rosa?
Are these the real championship events?
Men's Bantamweight: Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher
As fight fans know, the championship rounds are rounds 4 and 5 of a title fight, the extra 10 minutes that test the mettle of an athlete fighting to be the best in the sport. But does anything test a person's dedication to MMA more than what Garbrandt is going through at this point in his career?
He was 11-0 and was UFC men's bantamweight champion when he lost a grudge match to former teammate TJ Dillashaw in 2017. Garbrandt also lost a rematch nine months later – and has gone on to lose almost every fight since. He is 2-5 since winning the belt in 2016, with all but one loss coming by brutal knockout. Yet he continues. Where does Garbrandt go from here if he falls to the also unseeded Kelleher?
Now that you're all grown up…
Women's Flyweight: Casey O'Neill vs. Ariane Lipski
Just two years ago, O'Neill was a rising prospect, undefeated and ranked in the top three in ESPN's 2021 rankings of the Top 25 Fighters Under 25. She was heavily favored against Roxanne Modafferi in February 2022, but had to earn a split decision victory. Then O'Neill tore his ACL and was out for more than a year. Her comeback fight last March took place in London, the Scottish native's first appearance in the UK. O'Neill lost that fight to Jennifer Maia. In October, she was scheduled to fight in the other region where her family had settled, Australia, but another injury derailed those plans.
Finally, on Saturday, O'Neill has the opportunity to bounce back. Can his punching volume – O'Neill's 8.77 strikes per minute are the most of any fighter in UFC history – reinvigorate a promising career?
