Aston Villa force Guardiola to rethink Man City title hopes

Pep Guardiola said this week he is sure Manchester City will win the Premier League title this season, but Aston Villa may have forced him to rethink.

Unai Emery's side didn't just beat the reigning champions at Villa Park on Wednesday: they dominated the game in a way few have been able to achieve against a side managed by Guardiola since his debut as as Barcelona coach in 2008.

Villa beat Man City 1-0 thanks to a deflected effort from Leon Bailey, which was outstanding, but that only tells half the story. The home side had 22 shots while City failed to muster a meaningful attempt after the 11th minute, when striker Erling Haaland made a rare save from Emi Martinez.

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It was a night where Villa looked like legitimate title contenders while City presented the reasons why this could be the year they relinquish their crown.

“The best team won,” Guardiola said afterwards. “Aston Villa were better than us. We struggled with certain processes and it was really difficult because they are really physical and able to control a lot of aspects.

That's the reason they're up there, playing good football and we couldn't do that. It's my duty, my job to find a way to come back because for many years together, “We've been able to find a way to play games. Sometimes we play well, sometimes we don't, but we've always found a way to do it and now we're struggling.”

It now makes four Premier League matches without a win for City – matching their longest streak without a league win under Guardiola – and further proof of just how important Rodri is to their hopes of success this season. With the Spain international suspended, Guardiola was unable to find the midfield control he needed and the only surprise was that Villa took until 74 minutes to score when Bailey headed past Josko Gvardiol twice and scored with a heavy deflection off Rúben Dias.

In the first half alone, Villa had 13 shots – the most against a Guardiola-led side in a league match – and it took a series of saves from Éderson to ensuring that both teams are somehow tied at the break.

Rodri has missed four domestic matches this season and City have lost them all. As important as Haaland and Dias are, they simply cannot do without their midfielder. Fortunately for Guardiola, he will be back to play at Luton Town on Sunday.

“Rodri is of course an important player but when he is not there we have to find a way to win without him,” Guardiola said. “Six points [off the top] and we would prefer to be first in the championship but we drew three times and lost today. We need to change the dynamic, win as quickly as possible against Luton and Crystal Palace to continue to be there.”

Villa have their own crucial match this weekend when Arsenal visit Villa Park and while the title is only being discreetly mentioned in the pubs around Aston at the moment, the lid won't stay on the excitement if they can beat Mikel Arteta's team. After 14 consecutive home wins for Villa – equaling a club record first set in 1903 – and a perfect score of seven from seven this season, there is no reason not to.

Arsenal were the last team to win in the Premier League at Villa Park in February but Villa, boosted by shrewd summer transfers, are now a different prospect. Third in the table and just four points off the top, only City have scored more goals this season and with Bailey and Ollie Watkins in particular, they are a team full of attacking intent. That should worry an Arsenal side who conceded three at Luton on Tuesday.

Guardiola later said in his post-match press conference that Villa should be considered a title challenger, but Emery, who beat Guardiola for the first time after 15 years of trying, is not still ready to accept.

“We have to be excited but we have to keep the balance,” he said. “For now we have to focus on Arsenal on Saturday. I want us to be a team with a winning mentality and to be balanced. If we can continue this process and win, of course we have to believe in it. Last game against Bournemouth we almost lost. We have to be consistent.

After a week in which Guardiola was unusually optimistic about City's title hopes, the only real takeaway from Villa Park was that Emery and his players are the real deal. If Arsenal can back up their credentials with a last-minute winner at Luton, then why shouldn't Villa's dominance over Europe's best team be seen as a similar statement of intent?

Guardiola, certainly, will not be so sure of this fourth consecutive title while the sparks of confidence will fly in Emery.