CFP Anger Index: Unpacking the outrage of Florida State’s snub،
To echo great prognosticator Clubber Lang, we had only one obvious prediction for the final College Playoff seeding of the four-team era: pain.
There are five teams – six if you count Georgia (unless you want to be added to Kirby Smart's list of enemies) – with a valid argument for making the playoffs, but for the last time, it doesn't There are only four places.
And, if we've read our stages of grief correctly, the next stage after pain is anger (followed closely by bourbon and basketball season). And there is reason to be angry.
So, as the committee retreats to their secure bunker to wait out the coming apocalypse, let's dive into our final tantrum of the year. There is a lot of outrage to unpack.
In the past, we held a beauty contest. The best team in the country was decided entirely by voters.
Then we moved to a better system, determined in part by computers that added at least some math to the abstract rationalization while also allowing two teams to decide on the field.
Then we moved to a four-team playoff, and the goal was to eliminate the guesswork and let a champion be crowned by the actual results on the field. If you won your matches, you had a chance to win a national title.
It turns out it was all a charade. None of that mattered. Games are useless. What happens on the field is less important than what a committee thinks might happen in an upcoming game.
It's a real slap in the face to every player who has ever put on a helmet, laced up some cleats, and walked onto the field to fight for victory, because a group of people in a conference room in Texas decided that their sacrifice was no longer necessary. It wasn't as big. as important as the Las Vegas line in a potential playoff game.
It's a joke.
devastated. sorry. With so much disbelief, I wish my leg had broken earlier in the season so you all could see that this team is about so much more than just the quarterback. I thought results matter. 13-0 and this list matches any team in these top 4 rankings. I'm so sorry. Go Noles!
– Jordan Travis (@jordantrav13) December 3, 2023
Yes, Florida State doesn't have starting quarterback Jordan Travis, which means it would have to play a quarterback who wasn't its opening week starter to win a national title, and of course, that couldn't happen. After all, only Ohio State in 2014, Alabama in 2017, Clemson in 2018 and Georgia in 2021 have done so. What are the chances that something that happened 44% of the time will happen again?
And of course, FSU's passing game was a disaster in the ACC championship game. No arguments there. Funny thing though: FSU won its title game by more than Alabama. In fact, FSU has won its last two games more than Alabama. And since Travis was injured in Week 12 against North Alabama, the Seminoles have thrown for just 8 fewer yards than Michigan in the same stretch, but there's been no debate about Michigan.
Oh, and that probably doesn't matter in the face of such a poor quarterback performance against Louisville, but there's also the small problem that the QB who started that game, Brock Glenn, wouldn't be the QB who would start a playoff game (since Tate Rodemaker would then be out of the concussion protocol).
The committee was concerned with one statistic in making this decision: FSU's 55 passing yards against Louisville.
Here are the stats he ignored: seven sacks, 14 tackles for loss, 10 passes defended, 189 rushing yards against a stacked box, a 10-point win over a top 15 team with a QB making his first career start .
Let's be real about what happened here: Committee members couldn't leave the SEC out of the playoffs. They didn't care that Alabama needed a miracle to avoid a 6-6 loss to Auburn two weeks ago. They didn't care that Georgia's own injuries — playing with a banged-up Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers — likely played a big role in the Tide's victory Saturday. They didn't care that the ACC had a head-to-head winning record against the SEC this season. They didn't care about Alabama beating Georgia in 2023, not Georgia in 2021 or 2022. They cared about the fact that Alabama and the SEC had to have a playoff spot by birthright. And as a result, they sent the message that what happened on the field – the blood, tears and sacrifices players made all season to win every game on their schedule – was less important than 'get the most compelling televised match.
But hey, there will be a 12-team playoff next year, so all is forgiven, right?
Give this to the committee: At least it was consistent. In snubbing Florida State, he determined that the “eye test” was more important than the results, and they stayed true to that philosophy by ranking Washington behind Michigan despite the Huskies' extremely impressive resume.
Check the metrics:
Victories against the Top 25
Washington: 5
Michigan: 3
Victories against the FPI top 35
Washington: 6
Michigan: 3
ESPN recording force
Washington: 1
Michigan: 2
ESPN Strength of Schedule
Washington: 11
Michigan: 33
And, of course, as the committee made clear with Florida State, no stat means more than passing yards, right?
Washington: 344 per game
Michigan: 219 per game
Of course, the committee is also allowed to weigh “other factors,” which it did for the state of Florida. Apparently “having your head coach suspended twice for violating two separate NCAA rules” doesn't count as an “other factor.”
The bottom line: Washington must travel 2,600 miles to play in the Sugar Bowl rather than give the Pac-12 a farewell in the Rose Bowl.
Three points.
Three.
After 29 straight wins and two straight national championships, a three-point loss with two of its best players dealing with injuries and two freshmen playing linebacker is what dropped Georgia from No. 1 in the rankings to last week at #6 this week.
Three. Stinking. Points.
Do you know where three dots come from? A field goal. A kicker. We're kicking the two-time defending champions out of the playoffs because of a kicker? To paraphrase Allen Iverson: “We're talking about field goals? Field goals? Not a touchdown! Not a touchdown! Field goal.”
Please, committee members. Go stand next to Brock Bowers. Look him in the eye and tell him that a field goal is the reason he doesn't have a place in the College Football Playoff.
We hope your committee assignment comes with a good health insurance policy.
There are 12 teams with two or fewer losses. Eleven of them are playing a New Year's game. The other one? Oklahoma.
Is this reasonable?
Well, Oklahoma has by far the best win of the group, having beaten No. 3 Texas on a neutral field.
Oklahoma is behind Oregon among two-loss teams in FPI.
Oklahoma has five wins against FPI Quad 1 opponents. Penn State has one.
In Oklahoma's six games against Quad 1 foes, its average scoring margin is +12. It's better than the one in Oregon.
Oklahoma's two losses came by a total of eight points, both coming on the final drive of the game. Aside from a brief 3-0 first quarter score against Michigan, Penn State has never led in any of its losses. Ole Miss was passed for 314 yards in its two losses. Missouri has allowed 40 points per game in its two losses.
There is no conceivable reality in which the Sooners don't belong in the New Year's Six. Fortunately, they will be in the SEC next year, where they won't have to worry about such poor treatment.
It was a terrible day for current and future ACC teams.
After all, if the committee is only interested in the “best” teams, well, are we really taking Liberty over the Mustangs?
Look, we're not here to argue against an undefeated team (Liberty) missing the big time. We are fully #TeamNoLosses. But the committee deviated to put the eye test at the top of the rankings, then moved in the other direction to the bottom of the top 25.
Boo Corrigan just said Liberty got the G5 New Year's Six Bowl berth because “Liberty just kept winning.”
I can't.
– Curt Weiler (@CurtMWeiler) December 3, 2023
Liberty's record strength is 14th. SMU's is 19th. Freedom Advantage.
But FSU was also ahead of Alabama and Texas, and it didn't matter. Instead, the committee opted for “best,” and by those measures, SMU advantage.
Strength of schedule
SMU: 76
Freedom: 133 (out of 133)
REIT
SMU: 20
Freedom: 49
Point margin/game
SMU: 23.2
Freedom: 18.1
Victories against the FPI top 60
USM: 2
Freedom: 0
Like a baseball umpire, we don't demand that every ball and strike be called accurately. We just want the same calls on both sides. The committee, as usual, makes the rules based on its decision.
