Breaking down the 49ers-Eagles Week 13 NFC showdown

PHILADELPHIA — It will be high-stakes theater at Lincoln Financial Field when the 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles host the 8-3 San Francisco 49ers on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox) in a rematch of the 2023 NFC Championship Game.

The 49ers had a bitter taste in their mouths after being throttled 31-7 on January 29. Quarterback Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game on their sixth offensive snap with a torn UCL in his throwing elbow, and backup Josh Johnson was out. with a concussion in the third quarter. Afterward, receiver Brandon Aiyuk said Philadelphia was “extremely lucky.” Deebo Samuel got personal, calling Eagles corner James Bradberry “trash.” He said San Francisco lost “because we were playing with 10 people.”

“Talk is cheap,” Eagles running back Haason Reddick said this week, via KYW News. “You know, they can come back to the Linc. There was a lot of boo-boos last year, a lot of crying, a lot of what ifs, a lot of this, a lot of that. They have a chance to come back here, line that shit up and prove it again.”

While the Niners seek revenge, the Eagles play the underdog card despite having the best record in the NFL. San Francisco is a three-point favorite, making Philadelphia the seventh team in the Super Bowl era to have more than 10 wins and one loss or fewer and be a home underdog.

“I mean, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said. “But I don’t really know how it works. So, I don’t really know why.”

Added Eagles coach Nick Sirianni: “Before I set foot in the city, all I knew about this city was Rocky versus Apollo Creed. The city plays the underdog well.”

Beyond the drama, there is a lot at stake in this game when it comes to playoff positioning. There’s a good chance these teams will face each other again in the playoffs. If San Francisco wants to have any chance of hosting this game, they need to emerge victorious over Philly this time around.

ESPN 49ers reporter Nick Wagoner and Eagles reporter Tim McManus analyze the heavyweight fight.

How this game affects NFC playoff storylines

The Eagles control the No. 1 seed in the NFC and have a chance to lock it up over the next two weeks if they can beat the Niners and Dallas Cowboys. That would leave only the Detroit Lions in the race for first place, provided they continue to win and keep pace. Right away, the Eagles have several scenarios to be the first team to clinch a playoff spot this week. The easiest path is a win against the Niners coupled with a Los Angeles Rams loss to the Cleveland Browns.

As for the 49ers, a win would put them back in the mix for that top seed and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Even though they would still be one game behind the Eagles, they would have the head-to-head tiebreaker and could end up – gasp – in favor of the Cowboys in Week 14. The 49ers can’t clinch a playoff spot this time. week, but a win in Philadelphia combined with a couple of losses for the Rams and Seahawks could put them in position to clinch not only a playoff berth, but also the NFC West division title as early as Week 14. — Nick Waggoner

Quarterback Strengths and Weaknesses

Brock Purdy, 49ers: Through 10 games, no NFL quarterback has been more efficient than Purdy. He leads the NFL in many major passing statistical categories, including QBR, completion percentage, yards per attempt and traditional passer rating. Purdy was particularly good against man coverage and used the middle of the field, something the Eagles play a lot and have struggled against, respectively. Purdy is third in QBR (85), tied for first in touchdown passes (16) and second in completion rate (66%) against man coverage this season. He’s also second in QBR for between-the-hash throws (94.9), while the Eagles allow a 95.6 QBR on those throws, which ranks 28th in the NFL.

The biggest question for Purdy is how he performs in close and late situations. All six of Purdy’s interceptions this season came in the second half, including three in the fourth quarter as he tried to come back in eventual losses to Minnesota and Cincinnati. — Carter

Jalen hurts, Eagles: Hurts is closer. He’s helped the Eagles overcome halftime deficits in each of their last four games, including Sunday against the Bills when he scored four touchdowns after intermission and put the game away with an overtime TD . “There aren’t many guys I’ve played with — probably none I’ve played with — who have been more efficient down the stretch,” veteran Eagles center Jason Kelce said. Hurts, the current MVP favorite, is 24-2 in the regular season over the past two seasons and has won 14 straight games against teams that entered with a winning record – the longest winning streak for a starting QB since 1950.

But he turned the ball over at a higher rate this season. Hurts already has a career-high 10 interceptions after throwing just six picks all last year and is tied for third among quarterbacks with 14. — Tim McManus

The 49ers will win if…

Just because this is a huge game doesn’t mean the Niners want the recipe for victory to change. They jumped on their opponents early in the season and will need to do so and keep their foot on the gas against an Eagles team that has been exceptional coming from behind. There should be opportunities to make many plays in the intermediate passing game and pass the ball successfully, including attacking the edges.

The biggest challenge will be slowing down Philadelphia’s running game. The Eagles offensive line boasts a league-best 76.6% block win rate. The 49ers have 15 sacks in the last three games and Hurts tends to hold on to the ball, so there should be opportunities to get to him, but the Niners need to slow down the run first. As always, the turnover battle is the most important. The Niners have just 10 giveaways this year (third in the NFL) compared to Philadelphia’s 16 (tied for 18th). That means there should be a chance to win and the Niners should take advantage. — Carter

The Eagles will win if…

Their pass rush can dominate again. The front seven generated 17 pressures, 7 QB hits and 3 sacks in the NFC Championship Game against the 49ers and took down two quarterbacks in the game. This remains a favorable matchup for Philadelphia: the Eagles have the fifth-best pass win rate in the league (51%) and face a 49ers offensive front that is 16th, or middle of the pack, in win rate of pass blocks (56%). Josh Sweat (60 pressures) and Reddick (55 pressures) lead the charge from the outside while Rookie Defensive Player of the Year candidate Jalen Carter has four sacks this season and has generated pressure on 14.2 % of his passing snaps, which ranks fourth among defensive tackles.

The Eagles are expected to be without their two original starting linebackers, Nakobe Dean and Zach Cunningham, due to injury. The middle of the defense is vulnerable and the back end has had its share of issues – the Eagles rank 29th in pass defense (255.7 YPG) and have given up the second-most passing touchdowns (23) – making it imperative that the race comes home. — McManus

Non-QB X Factor to Watch

Jake Moody, K, 49ers: Rain is forecast again this week in Philadelphia, which is nothing new for the Eagles, who have played in similar conditions in recent weeks. The Niners, meanwhile, have played just one rain game so far, a Week 6 loss to Cleveland in which they had their worst performance of the season. More rain could mean even more for Moody, a rookie who has been nearly perfect outside of that Week 6 loss to the Browns. Two of his three misses this year came on that day, including a game-winning 41-yard field goal attempt. The stakes of this match, combined with the weather, make Moody someone to watch. — Carter

DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles: AJ Brown was in fine form from Weeks 3-8, posting a game-high 125+ receiving yards in six straight games. Defenses have since increased the number of double teams and bracket coverage they give him. Smith took advantage of his one-on-one opportunities. He has over 99 receiving yards in three of his last four games, including seven catches for 106 yards and a touchdown against the Bills on Sunday. Whether it’s Charvarius Ward or Deommodore Lenoir lined up against him, expect Smith to see plenty of action. — McManus

Stat to know

49ers: In a battle of big versus big, this matchup features the team with the most yards after contact per play (1.55) and per game (93.73) according to ESPN Stats & Information – the Niners – against the team allowing the fewest yards after contact. per play (0.93) and per game (60.55) – the Eagles. — Carter

Eagles : Philly has won eight straight home games, marking the second-longest home winning streak in the NFL behind the Cowboys (13). The Eagles are 17-3 in their last 20 games at Lincoln Financial Field. — McManus