CFP Anger Index: The eight teams that should be the most upset with their ranking،
We arrive at the penultimate ranking of the season and the committee did not need much movement and shaking. Thanks to a year of unprecedented success for the favorites – teams ranked in the top eight are 89-7 with all seven losses coming to top 13 opponents – it’s essentially been a rinse and repeat .
But with the majority of the top 25 not playing again until bowl season, the committee’s picks this week resonate more than most, and that means a few big names and playoff regulars have good reason to complain.
The committee has made it clear since its first round of rankings this year that there’s a lot of love in the room for Ohio State, but boy, that still seems a bit far-fetched, doesn’t it?
A quick overview of where the four teams stand at one loss:
FPI Top 35 wins (essentially a “Quad 1” win)
Alabama, 5
Texas, 5
Ohio State, 3
Oregon, 3
Wins against bowl-eligible opponents
Alabama, 7
Texas, 7
Ohio State, 6
Oregon, 5
Win against winning Power 5 opponents
Alabama, 5
Texas, 4
Ohio State, 4
Oregon, 3
Strength of the file
Ohio State, 5
Texas, 6
Alabama, 7
Oregon, 8
That last category certainly helps Ohio State’s case, even if the eye test suggests it’s a bit iffy. Ohio State has two notable victories: Notre Dame and Penn State. Both are good teams, ranked in the top 20 by the committee, and suggest the Buckeyes are worth discussing. But Notre Dame also got smoked by Louisville and lost to a faltering Clemson team fresh off a Dabo Swinney radio rant, while Penn State was unaware that it was legal to throw a pass over the line. melee. Looking back, Notre Dame’s best win came against NC State. Penn State’s resume starts and ends with Iowa. Are we absolutely sure this is the resume builder the committee thinks he is?
Of course, ranking Oregon ahead of everyone is even more absurd, given the Ducks’ lack of resume, but that problem will take care of itself in the Pac-12 title game.
Ohio State, meanwhile, is sitting in the clubhouse, waiting for chaos, enjoying its place in the pecking order ahead of Texas and Alabama and certainly well aware that at this point in the season, no team ranked lower than sixth made the playoffs.
It’s certainly possible that if Bama or Texas add the all-important “conference champion” label to their resumes, the committee will make sure to adjust that ranking. But it’s also possible that the committee saw a tricky issue in an Alabama-Texas debate (the Tide are red-hot, the Horns hold the head-to-head victory) and decided to take note of Iowa and go all in on it , as he did in 2014 when he ignored the thorny Baylor-or-TCU debate in favor of… Ohio State!
Wait, Washington is clearly in a win-win situation and is poised, if things go well, to avoid a first-round matchup against Georgia. This is great news, right? Well certainly. The committee didn’t snub the Huskies here, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have reason to be angry, and the reason is that this really shouldn’t come down to a win-win scenario.
Washington has two more Quad 1 wins than Oregon and has already beaten the Ducks. But Oregon is getting a makeover, and if they win this one, everything that happened during the regular season is out the window. Boom, the Ducks are in, Washington is out. For what?
Because everyone makes a lot of money from conference championship games, so you have to play them. But Washington has already won the Pac-12 by playing a tougher schedule and beating each of the next top five in the conference standings. And yet the Huskies still face a win-or-go-home situation in a title game, while Oregon faces no consequences for losing in the regular season.
As the first playoffs approach, we’ve talked incessantly about preserving the integrity of the regular season – the best in all sports! Well, it wasn’t the playoffs that undermined the importance of the regular season. These are the conference title games.
And when the playoffs expand to 12, these games become even more problematic.
Three two-loss teams rank ahead of Oklahoma, and none will play on championship weekend. That makes the Sooners’ position all but settled, and at No. 12, it likely puts them on the outside looking in for a New Year’s Six game.
So, is this fair?
Well, we’ve already discussed Penn State’s paper-thin resume. After Iowa, its second best win is… Northwestern? And in two games against elite competition (Michigan and Ohio State), the Nittany Lions have scored a combined 27 points. Yeah.
What about Missouri or Ole Miss?
SP+ ranks Missouri at 12, Oklahoma at 13 and Ole Miss at 14.
FPI has Oklahoma well ahead (No. 8) with Ole Miss at 15 and Missouri at 16.
FEI agrees, placing the Sooners at No. 8, Missouri at No. 14 and Mississippi as high as No. 20.
And looking at the resumes, Oklahoma has more wins against its Quad 1 opponents (four) than Mississippi (three) or Missouri (two).
There could be a reasonable argument that Oklahoma isn’t the best of the two-loss teams, but it seems pretty clear that the Sooners aren’t fourth either, and the implications of that oversight are huge, given the gap with the New Year. Six offers.
4. Each team in the group of 5 is snubbed
We’re not going to argue with Liberty anymore — and in truth, the Flames will have a real test against New Mexico State in the Conference USA title game, so a win would certainly make them worth considering consideration for a New Year’s Six Bowl.
But just being ranked has value for teams outside of the Power 5, and yet only Tulane and Liberty made the cut.
How come Tulane is only No. 22? The Green Wave lost a game, without starting quarterback Michael Pratt, against the No. 11 team in the country.
Toledo? EMS? James Madison? Not a whiff.
And yet here is Tennessee, ranked 21st, despite losing a combined 71 points to the top three teams it has faced…despite losing 13-5-7 at Florida…despite being best win against Kentucky (by six!)…Tennessee is ahead of all these other teams.
Honestly, Volunteers fans should probably be crazy about it too. The committee makes it harder to criticize the performance of a team that actually deserves a little blowback.
5. Authors of the Anger Index (unclassified, undefeated)
This whole year it has been extremely difficult to find reasons to be outraged. Couldn’t we have had a few more upsets? One or two? Something that forced the committee to really split hairs or insist on a complete logical paradox? That’s the fun of these rankings, right? Shouting into the ether about meaningless rankings seems almost idiotic if there isn’t a compelling argument to accompany the anger.
Well, here’s to a wild championship weekend and more complaints to come!
