2023 NFL playoff picture: AFC, NFC seed projections in Week 12

2023 NFL playoff picture: AFC, NFC seed projections in Week 12،

There are just over six weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season, but we’re already looking ahead to January and what the 14-team playoff situation could look like on the road to Super Bowl LVIII.

After the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 11, the Eagles were the heavy favorites to secure the top seed in the NFC. This continued in Week 12, when the Eagles defeated the Buffalo Bills.

In the AFC, however, the battle for the 1 seed is much tougher, as the Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars all have a chance to earn a bye in the first round.

Which teams could sneak into the wild-card round of the playoffs? And for which teams are hopes almost over? We used ESPN’s Football Power Index to project the remainder of the season, looking at both conferences’ playoff picture, as well as the favorites’ chances of making the playoffs, winning the division and even making the Super Bowl. We also have seeding projections for the AFC and NFC, so you can see the most likely matchups in each conference, and a first look at which teams are battling for the No. 1 pick in the draft. next year.

Here’s everything you need as the NFL playoffs approach (updated Monday, November 27):

Access a section:
AFC: Full projections | Sowing
NFC: Full projections | Sowing
The match of the week
Race for 2024 No. 1 pick

AFC Playoff Field Projection

FPI sees clear favorites in all four AFC divisions, and the Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals are all on the ropes after Week 12 losses.

The Kansas City Chiefs, 8-3, are still on track to secure the No. 1 seed, which comes with a bye to the divisional round. In the opening wild card round, seed 2 hosts seed 7, seed 3 hosts seed 6, and seed 4 hosts seed 5.

NFC Playoff Field Projection

And here’s where things stand in the NFC, which has three divisions virtually locked in place. The Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 12, but the NFC South race is tight, with the FPI giving both teams a 42% chance of winning the division.

The Philadelphia Eagles, 10-1, have the inside track to the No. 1 seed, which comes with a bye to the divisional round. In the opening wild card round, seed 2 hosts seed 7, seed 3 hosts seed 6, and seed 4 hosts seed 5.

The wild-card race in the NFC is wide open, as the No. 6 and 7 seeds could come from a multitude of teams. The fifth seed, however, appears to be the Dallas Cowboys, who are nowhere near catching the Eagles in the East.

Week 12 Match of Note

The Chicago Bears could dash the Minnesota Vikings’ NFC North dreams with a victory Monday night.

The race for the No. 1 pick in 2024

The 2024 NFL Draft will likely feature two quarterbacks battling for the top spot, with Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina) being ESPN’s top prospects. Which teams could take them? After Sunday’s Week 12 results, the situation became clearer.

The 3-8 Chicago Bears own the Carolina Panthers’ 1-10 first-round pick (via last year’s pre-draft trade), and this selection has a 67% chance of landing at No. 1, according to REIT. He projects Chicago’s other pick with a 2% chance of landing at No. 1.

The 2-10 Arizona Cardinals also have two first-round picks, with FPI projecting their initial selection at No. 2 and the Houston Texans’ 6-5 pick — who was acquired in the move up last April — at No. 21. .