College Football Playoff projections: The Game’s leverage،
There’s nothing bigger than No. 2 Ohio State versus No. 3 Michigan on Saturday, and the Allstate Playoff Predictor weighed each team’s chances of making the College Football Playoff based on result.
The predictor also has some surprising results ahead of the Pac-12 championship game, if sixth-ranked Oregon wins against Oregon State on Friday and plays No. 4 Washington in the championship in Week 14.
A look back at the numbers as Rivalry Week has arrived.
Ohio State-Michigan playoff leverage
Chance of reaching the playoffs, based on outcome, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor:
Ohio State with a win: >99%
Ohio State with a loss: 59%
Michigan with a win: 96%
Michigan with a loss: 19%
There are two reasons why the model is slightly higher on Ohio State: The FPI puts the Buckeyes barely ahead of Michigan in terms of team rankings, although it is close enough that if Michigan won the game, there’s a good chance they’ll be ahead of Ohio State in FPI Rating. Second, Ohio State currently ranks second in record strength, while Michigan is third.
The Huskies are No. 4, but behind the Ducks?
Washington moved into the committee’s top four this week – the Huskies currently hold first place in record strength, it would be very difficult to justify keeping them out of the top four currently – but they only have the sixth-best playoff luck (37). %) and are even less likely to make the playoffs than Oregon, which had a loss.
For what?
Well, if the Ducks make the Pac-12 championship game (there’s an 84% chance they do), then they would have a 71% chance of beating Washington in that contest. If they finish conference champions with one loss, they would have an 86% chance of reaching the playoffs.
Ultimately, for Washington, it simply comes down to FPI being skeptical of the true strength of its team — it considers the Huskies the 13th best team in the country — and a pretty heavy underdog facing Oregon in a potential match.
All odds unbeaten?
The easiest task the committee could have is if there are four undefeated Power 5 champions. That’s in play if Washington, Florida State, Georgia and the winner of Ohio State-Michigan all prevail. The chances of this scenario coming true: 8%.
