NFL Thanksgiving games: Picks, schedule, injuries, fantasy

The NFL’s Week 12 schedule for the 2023 season begins with three big Thanksgiving games, and we tell you what you need to know. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for every game.

Plus, ESPN Stats & Information provides an important-to-know stat and betting nugget for every contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) gets into the numbers with a game projection. Analytics Editor Seth Walder picks the biggest factor X of every game, and Fantasy analyst Eric Moody provides helpful fantasy football insights. Finally, Walder and Moody give us the final scores for all three games. Everything you want to know is here in one place to help you prepare for a busy Thursday afternoon of NFL football.

Access a match:
GB-DET | WSH-DAL | SF-SEA

12:30 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: DET-7.5 (46.5)

Scenario to see: In Detroit, Thanksgiving and football go together like peanut butter and jelly, dating back to when the Lions hosted their first-ever Thanksgiving game in 1934. But they haven’t had much success recently this that day. – they haven’t won on Thanksgiving since 2016. The Packers will now come to town to try to take some of the hype out of the Lions, having won two of their last three games. But Green Bay has lost four straight games to the Lions, which is its second-longest streak in franchise history. — Eric Woodyard

Bold prediction: The Lions will not cut Packers quarterback Jordan Love. They had it twice in the Week 4 matchup and they have had interceptions in two of their last three games. Love hasn’t had consecutive games without an interception since Weeks 1 and 2, but that could change this week. He didn’t throw any last Sunday against the Chargers in what was perhaps his best outing of the season. Look for him to keep that momentum going against Detroit, which is tied for 17th in the NFL with eight defensive interceptions. –Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: Lions quarterback Jared Goff has had a lot of success against the Packers during his career, going 5-1 in the regular season against Green Bay. This is currently tied for the third-best winning percentage by a starting quarterback against the Packers since 1950, behind Jim McMahon and Bobby Layne.

Matching factor Packers cornerback Keisean Nixon. He’s Green Bay’s corner, which means he’ll attract plenty of receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta. These are the two most important pass catchers to stop if the Packers want to slow down the Lions passing offense. –Walder

Injuries: Packers | the Lions

What you need to know for fantasy: Jayden Reed leads all Packers receivers in receiving yards this season (463) and scored a 32-yard rushing touchdown against the Chargers on Sunday. With running back Aaron Jones dealing with a knee injury, Reed could take on a Deebo Samuel-like role for the Packers. He ranks among the top 20 wide receivers with 3.1 fantasy points per touch. See the rankings for week 12. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Lions are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 division games. Learn more.

Moody’s choice: Lions 34, Packers 21
Walder’s choice: Lions 30, Packers 20
FPI prediction: DET, 64% (4.8 points on average)

Back to Thanksgiving: This is the first Packers-Lions matchup on Thanksgiving Day since 2013, but these NFC North foes are no strangers to meeting on Turkey Day. This will be the 22nd time Detroit and Green Bay have met on Thanksgiving Day, the most for any franchise ever. The Lions hold a 12-8-1 lead in the previous 21 meetings. Learn more.

Must-reads of the match: Love made a statement during the Packers’ victory over the Chargers… Williams finally feels “part of the herd” in Detroit

4:30 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: DAL-11 (48.5)

Scenario to see: The Cowboys have won four of their last five games…and the Commanders have lost four of their last five. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott is 9-2 against Washington in his career with 19 touchdown passes and four interceptions, and he has beaten the Commanders twice on Thanksgiving (2016, 2018) all throwing three touchdown passes and no picks. Add in the fact that he leads the NFL in QBR since Week 4 (76.6), and Prescott is ready to continue his hot streak. But keep in mind he’s also 3-3 on vacation with nine touchdown throws and five interceptions in his career. -Todd Archer

Bold prediction: Dallas receiver CeeDee Lamb will make three gains for more than 20 yards en route to a 140-yard, two-touchdown day against Washington. The Commanders defense is tied for the most passes of 20 yards or more allowed in the NFL (43), while the Cowboys offense ranks fifth in gaining more than 20 yards through the air (41 completions ). And Lamb leads the NFL with 22 such receptions. -John Keim

Stat to know: Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has been sacked a league-high 51 times this season. More bad news? The Cowboys have generated pressure on a league-high 39% of their opponents’ losses.

Matching factor Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland. He’s tied for the NFL record with four pick-sixes and now faces the somewhat erratic Howell. This — and Dallas’ Week 18 game against Washington — are likely Bland’s best chances to break the record. –Walder

Injuries: Commanders | Cowboys

What you need to know for fantasy: The Commanders defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. In six games against the Commanders, Lamb averaged seven targets and 11.7 fantasy points. It’s very likely that Lamb will surpass those per game averages come Thanksgiving. See the rankings for week 12. — Moody

Betting nugget: Since the 1970 merger, the Cowboys are 12-0 and 9-3 ATS as double-digit favorites heading into Thanksgiving. However, the Commanders are 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season, including a 5-0 ATS record as a road underdog. Learn more.

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Can we trust Sam Howell in fantasy against the Cowboys?

Eric Moody has Sam Howell as his low-end QB1 in Fantasy this week, despite his tough matchup against the Cowboys.

Moody’s choice: Cowboys 34, Commanders 31
Walder’s choice: Cowboys 34, Commanders 20
FPI prediction: DAL, 85.1% (average of 13.9 points)

Back to Thanksgiving: In 1974, backup quarterback Clint Longley replaced the injured Roger Staubach as the Cowboys trailed Washington 16-3. Longley rallied Dallas to victory, completing 11 passes for 203 yards. He capped the comeback with a 50-yard touchdown pass to Drew Pearson with 28 seconds left, and the extra point kick gave the Cowboys a 24-23 victory. Learn more.

Must-reads of the match: The shocked Commanders face the toughest time after the Giants’ defeat… After routing the Panthers, the Cowboys’ attention turns to the Commanders

8:20 p.m. ET | BNC | Spread: SF-7 (43.5)

Scenario to see: Even at full strength, the Seahawks would have their hands full against a superior 49ers team that beat them three times last season by a combined score of 89-43. This game became even more difficult when quarterback Geno Smith and running back Kenneth Walker III were injured on Sunday. Pete Carroll is optimistic that Smith can play despite his triceps contusion, but Walker’s status is more uncertain after he suffered an oblique strain and did not play beyond the opening series. Seattle would turn to second-round pick Zach Charbonnet as RB1 in Walker’s absence (and Drew Lock under center if Smith can’t go). -Brady Henderson

Bold prediction: Niners defensive end Nick Bosa will have the third three-sack game of his career. Seattle has been forced to use a rotating cast of offensive linemen due to injuries, and although they are healthier, Bosa and San Francisco’s defensive line have found a rhythm since the arrival of Chase Young a few weeks ago. In a short week with some health uncertainty regarding the Seahawks offense, this could be the week where some of Bosa’s many pressures (27 this season) turn into sacks. -Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy has thrown three touchdown passes in each of his last two games. The last 49ers player with three or more touchdowns in three consecutive games was Jeff Garcia in 2001. Oh, and Purdy is 5-0 with nine touchdown passes and no interceptions against divisional opponents during his career , including the playoffs.

Matching factor Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner. He ranks fourth in win rate (41.5%) as a linebacker, and no team has a higher rush rate this season than the 49ers. –Walder

Injuries: 49ers | sea ​​hawks

What you need to know for fantasy: The 49ers are heavily favored on the road against a Seahawks team that is giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, setting up Christian McCaffrey for a huge performance. But tight end George Kittle could also put up big numbers. He has 13 receptions, 274 receiving yards and two touchdowns in his last two visits to Seattle. See the rankings for week 12. — Moody

Betting nugget: The 49ers are 7-0-1 ATS in divisional play this season – but are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Learn more.

Moody’s choice: 49ers 35, Seahawks 17
Walder’s choice: 49ers 26, Seahawks 23
FPI prediction: SF, 73.2% (by 8.3 points on average)

Back to Thanksgiving: The Seahawks and 49ers met on Thanksgiving in 2014, with the Seahawks winning 19-3. Running back Marshawn Lynch had 20 carries for 104 yards and cornerback Richard Sherman had two interceptions. Learn more.

Must-reads of the match: Three-game stretch could define 49ers’ playoff destiny…Carroll thinks Smith will play Thursday…Hufanga tore ACL